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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 5 2020, 12:11 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 4 2020, 11:14 PM)
it does look like the market is happy with a "clear" winner. biggrin.gif

biden 238 + nevada 6 + wisconsin 10 + michigan 16 = 270

unofficial.
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Nevada said they won't have more results till tomorrow and now this:

QUOTE
BREAKING via
@LJMoynihan
--
@realDonaldTrump
team getting ready to send in attorneys, contest remaining states. He wont concede w these numbers, they are telling
@FoxBusiness
. Good chance we wont know president for another month. Still odds are long for Trump winning, they add

zacknistelrooy
post Nov 5 2020, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Nov 5 2020, 08:24 PM)
Rumor from US, why the big taikor AMZN, FB, Google, Microsoft is super green is because big institution get infor faster that Biden will win. So they when in big.

Trump have a plan if he continue to be president, he will split this cartel internet media. They are too big and form a mass media against him in this election.
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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 6 2020, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(HolyAssasin4444 @ Nov 5 2020, 08:55 PM)
Long term, market loves a split Congress. Some may think that they will never get shit done and pass any bills but that also prevents any radical bills being passed causing uncertainty. Interesting that GDP is inversely correlated, possibly due to more conservative fiscal and monetary policy?
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Usually that is the case with a republican president but the past 4 years fiscal conservatism has went out the door but it seems without their leader some republicans have rediscovered it.

Senate might now be up for grabs but it is Georgia so still low probability.

QUOTE(ozak @ Nov 6 2020, 12:59 PM)
People are not pouring the money into the market when election time uncertainty. You and me also caution with this.

Nobody but big institution is able to jack the price this high. You need big amount.

Mass media and big tech is blocking the trump news and keep silent/block Biden scandal news  and play like cartel. Twitter, FB, CNN, NBC, google etc.

So Trump plan to split up this cartel company if he continue. This company too big till harm the country.

I remember Microsoft have this issue before also. Kena split up the company. 

If Biden is preident, They are safe.
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That isn't true
Trump is where he is today because of social media so if they really go through breaking them up and putting on more regulation it is net negative for him

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...misinformation/
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From a pro-Trump super PAC to the president’s eldest son, however, these users have received few penalties, according to an examination of several months of posts and ad spending, as well as internal company documents. In certain cases, their accounts have been protected against more severe enforcement because of concern about the perception of anti-conservative bias, said current and former Facebook employees, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

If you think that is biased then take a look at what happens in Twitter and the amount of leeway that is given.

It took a threat of violence and beheading for a ban to a certain someone .....

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 6 2020, 07:55 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 7 2020, 12:47 AM

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Tough sector to trade in the past two years but YOLO ETF has been positive for the past two days

Also the MSOS ETF has a bit better balance but is new.
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 9 2020, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Nov 7 2020, 03:11 AM)
I bought it since $20
However believe its over valued, its market cap surpassed Auto Bavaria
how many units they are selling? tens of thousand per annum  compare to millions units by BMW
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It is always hard to guess how much people are willing to over value something so for me at least I either sell 50% and let the rest run or hold it till it reaches a certain profit target and focus on the next company.

Also ADRs from China in past few years have behaved very similar.

GSX which had a lot of negative news surrounding it yet kept going up so it is always hard to tell unless you have insider info.


zacknistelrooy
post Nov 11 2020, 09:20 PM

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Earnings snapshot so far since the big ones have reported already

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 12 2020, 07:05 PM

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Another Tech/E-commerce company delivers

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QUOTE
“This quarter we continued to invest in user engagement, which resulted in strong growth of MAUs and active buyers,” commented Mr. Lei Chen, Chief Executive Officer of Pinduoduo. “Our strategic priorities are informed by the changes in consumer habits that we observe and anticipate. We continue to innovate in order to meet such needs, especially in the agricultural industry.”

“This quarter we started Duo Duo Maicai to address the structural changes we see in how consumers fulfill their daily grocery needs. Duo Duo Maicai is a natural extension of our existing business and offers consumers a complementary experience to our main app,” added Mr. David Liu, Vice President of Strategy. “It is a long-term business that aligns well with our commitment to digitize China’s agricultural value chain and to be China’s leading agriculture platform. We are committed to continued investments into the agricultural supply chain and ecosystem.”

“Despite industry seasonality, we continued to deliver solid execution through the third quarter and generated positive cash flow from operations,” added Mr. Tony Ma, Vice President of Finance. “As a result, our trailing 12-month GMV grew 73% from a year ago, and our total revenues in the September quarter increased by 89% year-over-year.”

zacknistelrooy
post Nov 13 2020, 11:03 PM

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Hmmm...

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 16 2020, 07:59 PM

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Hearing Moderna vaccine has 94% efficacy and can be kept at room temp for 12 hours

Early data still..
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 17 2020, 07:44 PM

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Found this on the net for anyone interested in Berkshire US portfolio update

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 18 2020, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Nov 17 2020, 11:07 PM)
https://dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK

Check out the link above. Details the latest quarter's movement
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Nice

Thank you

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...accine-optimism

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Hasn't been the best indicator over the years but still something to note.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 18 2020, 12:33 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 22 2020, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Nov 21 2020, 09:35 PM)
Ciic is a good bet too. All these green energy spacs are all bets. Nobidy knew ciic was bringing in arrival. Just out small amounts into all green spacs.
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Don't forget about KCAC.

Full disclosure: I bought it in the 12's and 13's

Not flying as high as other green SPACs but it is a long term hold for me unless there is a material change in the company.

Their team and investors seem solid on paper

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There is even a SPAC ETF for anyone interested:

https://www.defianceetfs.com/SPAK

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 23 2020, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(numblink @ Nov 22 2020, 09:41 AM)
If Im not mistaken , their product expected to hit the market at 2025?? hmm.gif  hmm.gif
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Yup
It is a long shot and not expecting much.

My plan is to use the profits to get into some long dated bull call spreads.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...els-risk-demand

Dollar shorts not not budging.

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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 23 2020, 11:42 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 25 2020, 12:44 AM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Nov 24 2020, 04:36 PM)
For starters, do you have any finance and accounting background? This helps a lot, but even without it, there are ample material to learn online.

As for me, I major in accounting and finance so I started off with reading annual reports of companies that I like and best in the breed kind of companies to get a feel what a good company looks like. Just go to those companies website and find the investor relations section. I read at least 30 of those annual reports (they call it 10-k) and take notes for comparisons before dipping into the stock market.and then for those companies that I really like, I go through their last few quarter’s conference call and quarterly presentations before buying. While reading, set up an interactive brokers account. It takes a few days to weeks to get it sorted out.
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Check out https://finbox.com if you have not heard of them.

QUOTE(silverwave @ Nov 24 2020, 03:44 PM)
Which sites are good to start reading about the US market for a newbie?

Is Bloomberg, investing.com and yahoo finance sufficient?
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If you are looking for an ETF search engine then this is a good choice:

https://www.magnifi.com/


Two blogs that you may find useful and they are both written by CFA charterholders.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/


If you are looking for things about psychology of money then this blog is a good follow:

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/

The person also has a book out called The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness


Finra also provides some market data that is powered by Morningstar:

https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/Marke...kVersion=2.57.5

zacknistelrooy
post Nov 28 2020, 12:31 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 27 2020, 10:36 AM)
agreed, and he realised his airlines losses just before it spiked up

edit : plus he closed or reduce his barrick gold position too if i am not mistaken ?
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He sold it for PR reasons in my opinion.
He will never admit that but just imagine the fallback of a billionaire shareholder getting bailed out by a government and especially one as prominent as him.

Their cash burn also played a big role.

Till today he hasn't sold much of Kraft Heinz even with all their problems so why wouldn't he just wait a bit on these positions.
Even with Wells Fargo he gave it time before selling.

The gold stock holding was cut in half and proved that it was his portfolio managers who bought it.
Can ask the Buffet experts but I can't remember the last time he bought one quarter and sold the next especially for a holding above 100mil.


QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 27 2020, 11:44 PM)
Buffet is always my most respectful investment teacher and hero, no matter how much money i loss because of following his investment, although i seldom follow. In fact, he never invite anyone to follow his investments as far as i can recall. He told reporters he made a lot of huge investment mistakes throughout the years many times. Learning from Buffett is the most wonderful thing i found in the internet, not only on investment but also on social, life and humanity. Especially humanity, it's the most complex thing to be balance out in a profit oriented business world.  biggrin.gif
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Exactly.

The things I have learned from him and managed to put to use even though I mainly invest in Tech stocks have benefited me greatly.
If it wasn't for the stuff I learnt from him, I would have never bought Microsoft 6 years ago.

The best part is he has always shared his knowledge without charges.
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 2 2020, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 1 2020, 11:14 PM)
Nothing can stop this bull..... biggrin.gif
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zacknistelrooy
post Dec 3 2020, 07:10 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 2 2020, 06:10 AM)
We often see people use rather short term statistic to support their views on stock market, which i think is not appropriate. In mankind history, there are only very few huge turning point on our civilization that made huge change to our lives (and of course, implies into economy). Here's a GDP graph that i found in Google that represents "only" 1900 to 2020 (which i think, is already too short to say anything).

From this graph, we can see that GDP per capita in dollars grew from maybe 1400 to maybe 2100 from 1900 until 1950. 50 years, grew 50%.
Now, from 1950 to 1980, it went from 2100 to 4400, meaning around 110% in just 30 years.
Then, from  1980 to 2020, it went from 4400 to 7300, that's 66% in 40 years.

From the above, we can find that in 1950-1980, the growth was more than doubled of the before and after period of years.
Lets go back to today's world. Are we experiencing another huge turning point today? Well, some said yes, and some said no. This is normal, everyone see things differently. I can only express my own opinion, which is, I think we are. I think we are in a huge turning point of mankind's civilization towards high tech era, to AI, to new energy, to the outer space. It's huge, and we are just at the beginning of the journey. The upcoming 20 years could be another huge growth in future economic statistic, maybe a 200%, or 300% growth, bigger than what we experience in 1950 to 1980. And there you go, that was about the time the first modern computer was built (in 1948), a child in high tech life cycle. What we have today is a grown up, still young and fresh, like an 18 year-old, still quite a distance away from mature, and definitely far away from being old.  

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Definitely don't always use short term indicators but I have short term position so have to be aware of those.

First of all the stock market will do its thing and very likely to ignore it but for the future because there is so much hope with the advancement of tech that the damage to small biz and countless people by the current pandemic and policies of the past decade will have a negative effect in the coming years and that can't be discounted for now if no help is provided.

Personally, not a fan of GDP and GDP per capita as it does not capture a lot of the issues the world faces, and I am in the same camp Joseph Stiglitz that it needs to be replaced. Prefer the Human Development Index (HDI) which is still shows massive advancement yet slowing down in the past 10 years for certain countries.

http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-...t-index-ranking

Here is the data that may have lasting damage for years to come

Small Business Jobs Index

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https://www.paychex.com/employment-watch/#!/jobs-index/

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Also you can't discount stats like the one below which increases inequality.

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https://blogs.imf.org/2020/11/30/how-the-rich-get-richer/

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Dec 3 2020, 07:40 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 5 2020, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Dec 4 2020, 09:27 AM)
This is true. Although there’s wealth gap, but the fact is quality of life have improved for many. Imagine this. A cost of a 5mb harddisk was $40k in the 70s, and now you don’t even have to buy one anymore with cloud services available. Majority of the middle to low income population are getting data and knowledge whenever they want, where else in the past, most have to cross rivers and mountains to reach a library;). And even in that library, it takes ages to find information about a particular subject. So many parts of our lives have been improved, not only on the data front, but also on travelling, construction, farming, methods of finding jobs, etc etc

This can’t be said for those living in extreme poverty though..
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That is absolutely true if you have access and to a certain extent luck in where ones path leads to in life. There is still a big problem in terms of all the great advancement and who gets to benefit from it.

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"Around 11 million students in the United States do not have a laptop at all, so the digital divide is more acute than ever. Without technology, students are being held back," said Bellon during an interview featured on "Good Morning America."
https://abc11.com/free-computers-bridging-t...school/8471438/

Hospitalization is still incredibly expensive in US which is largely due to policy issues but in the end of the day even with all the medical advancement when normal people can't enjoy the decline in cost it is a major issue even if one is on insurance because cost has to come from somewhere and most likely wages will remain stagnant.

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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-declin...y-in-one-chart/
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 5 2020, 07:44 PM

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Innovative Technology Investing w/ Brett Winton, Ark Investment (Episode 54)

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly...kEegQICRAF&ep=6

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Here's the time-stamp of the podcast:

[2:42] Brett's Early Days Working With Cathy Wood
[11:48] Forecasts and Embedded Price Expectations
[24:23] Deep Value Investments in Technology
[40:35] Why You Need A Unique Perspective To Succeed
[52:10] The Rapid Acceleration of Technological Improvement
[1:01:23] Neural Networks
[1:11:03] Closing Questions


For anyone interested, the podcast above was about Head of Research at Ark Investment.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Dec 5 2020, 07:50 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 7 2020, 08:25 PM

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C3.ai (AI) IPO this week

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