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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 1 2020, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 1 2020, 03:42 AM)
TSLA more volatile than the 3x leverage..

Dang.. those option premiums are juicy.  drool.gif
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Yeah

It is essentially behaving like the bitcoin of the equity markets.


You probably know this already but just risk managed a little if you are going to do it.

I have been basically selling credit spreads and so far it has worked out but I have needed to day trade it sometimes because the stock moves quite aggressively.

zacknistelrooy
post Sep 1 2020, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserreich @ Sep 1 2020, 08:38 PM)
OMG ZM up 40%

Speechless.
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The analyst estimates weren't anywhere near the current quarter results

Even the highest estimate was quite off

Will be interesting to see if it succeeds in being included in S&P 500
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 2 2020, 12:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 2 2020, 12:06 AM)
PE going 3000 ....  biggrin.gif  This feels like dot-com bubble again.
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Yup and add the SPAC mania and you have a 2.0 version

Not sure what Zoom is going to do next year with this updated comps and potential high expectations moving forward

QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Sep 2 2020, 12:41 AM)
UK ftse100 what happened? Market kena rout.

Anyone knows? Is it because of PMI data across european countries?
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Likely because it was a bank holiday on Monday and Europe was weak on Monday and also the strengthening of the pound.


zacknistelrooy
post Sep 2 2020, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 2 2020, 02:07 AM)
I think Zoom maybe trying to woo the producers in the Porn industry...  devil.gif
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laugh.gif

or maybe Cisco will fix their mistakes all those years ago

QUOTE(kingz113 @ Sep 2 2020, 12:26 PM)
Surprised not many Zoom shareholders here.

Zoom has become indispensable in our life, to the point where I feel disadvantaged if I don't have it.

Morning meetings are done through Zoom, taking a course through Zoom twice a week. Wife is on Zoom most of the time throughout the day on meetings.

Recently attended an overseas convocation through Zoom of which execution was perfect.

I first added at circa $140 during March. Second add was at $240 and average costing about $190 which is already more than a double at todays price. will be doing a third and final add this few days after the earnings pending a pullback from profit takers.
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Those are valid points but the company is worth more than Honeywell and closing in Shopify which has way more leeway in what they can do in the future unless Zoom plans to come up with other products.

QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Sep 2 2020, 04:54 PM)
wasnt brave enough to buy last night. Some of it went up slightly but some still down. Well, Nov is coming!
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Wasn't a straightforward buy

They really did a number in the currency market yesterday
Euro failed badly at least for now and that has helped boost major indices in Europe with the help of US that just can't go down
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 2 2020, 10:45 PM

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https://graniteshares.com/institutional/uk/en-uk/etps/

3x ETP for the high flyers and Tesla is one of them

Volume is non-existent in most of them for now at least

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 2 2020, 10:47 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 3 2020, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Sep 3 2020, 05:57 AM)
Pricing on Trump wins  rclxm9.gif
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The betting market is already on the way there

QUOTE(masahito @ Sep 3 2020, 04:12 PM)
I love donny boy and his boy jpow

Pump it bros
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The way the bull market was sustained for 10 years was avoiding circumstances like this


zacknistelrooy
post Sep 3 2020, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Sep 3 2020, 09:46 PM)
anybody switch some of your tech portfolio to traditional stocks like consumer ?

Considering relocate my fund to KO
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Not on my end for now

You can hedge with options or the Tail Risk Etf

https://www.cambriafunds.com/tail


QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 3 2020, 10:57 PM)
Everytime trump tweet ATH, market corrects. Hahaha wtf  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Yeah but not that perfect correlation

2018

user posted image

QUOTE(markedestiny @ Sep 3 2020, 11:00 PM)
Tech stocks getting hit hard today...
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Back to last week Wednesday lows though
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 3 2020, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Sep 3 2020, 11:10 PM)
Are you staying put or buying the dip?
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Nothing for now as I use options to hedge and sold ITM call options for some of my stocks

In July when something similar happen, there was no follow through and it refused to break support levels

If that happens then I would add exposure and if not I will just wait on the sidelines

Usually before labor day long weekend it tends to be slightly bullish but due to the pandemic nothing matters anymore it seems


QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 3 2020, 11:22 PM)
Sometime i'm quite amazed at US actually. The speed at which their indexes move.

Is this due to their algo bots ?
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Combo of algos, institutional buyers and TikTok crew for stocks would be my guess
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 4 2020, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Sep 4 2020, 01:35 PM)
It's healthy for the market to correct itself. I would see a further 20% drop in the Nasdaq to be healthy in the long run.
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Exactly

Bull runs are sustained through proper corrections instead of simply going up
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 4 2020, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Sep 4 2020, 09:34 PM)
All 3 indexes green lol
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Add treasury yields to that


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For anyone interested in Palantir

Investor day next week

https://palantir.events/PalantirInvestorDay
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 4 2020, 10:36 PM

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Here we go.....

https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e...34-3ff866753fa2

SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally


QUOTE
SoftBank is the “Nasdaq whale” that has bought billions of dollars’ worth of US equity derivatives in a move that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Japanese conglomerate has been snapping up options in tech stocks during the past month in huge amounts, contributing to the largest trading volumes in contracts linked to individual companies in at least 10 years, these people said. One banker described it as a “dangerous” bet.

The aggressive move into the options market marks a new chapter for the investment powerhouse, which in recent years has made huge bets on privately held technology start-ups through its $100bn Vision Fund. After the coronavirus market tumult hit those bets hard, the company established an asset management unit for public investments using capital contributed by its founder Masayoshi Son. 

Now it has also made a splash in trading derivatives linked to some of those new investments, which has shocked market veterans. “These are some of the biggest trades I’ve seen in 20 years of doing this,” said one derivatives-focused US hedge fund manager. “The flow is huge.”

The surge in purchases of call options — derivatives that give the user the right to buy a stock at a pre-agreed price — has been the talk of Wall Street in recent weeks, as the sheer size of the trades appears to have exacerbated a “melt-up” in many big technology stocks over the summer. Shares in Tesla soared 26 per cent in under a week to September 1, while Amazon and Google parent Alphabet gained about 9 per cent.

One person familiar with SoftBank’s trades said it was “gobbling up” options on a scale that was even making some people within the organisation nervous. “People are caught with their pants down, massively short. This can continue. The whale is still hungry.”

The options boom means that the US stock market remains vulnerable to further bursts of volatility, according to Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura. “The street is still very much in a dangerous space, and that flow is still out there,” he said in a note on Friday, adding that this leaves the market open to swings higher or lower.

The overall nominal value of calls traded on individual US stocks has averaged $335bn a day over the past two weeks, according to Goldman Sachs. That is more than triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. The retail trading boom has played a big part of the frenzy, but investors say the size of many recent option purchases are far too big to be retail-driven. 
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 5 2020, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 4 2020, 10:43 PM)
Wow, thanks for this piece.

Seemed Masa is not the only one. The big short burry also did the same with large bet on call options for tech

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/st...0-8-1029517864#
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Yeah but his portfolio is only around 300 mil
Unlikely to have caused much distortions

This has been a combo of people at Softbank and similar institutions while not forgetting the retail traders

Been going on for two months plus actually

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 4 2020, 11:53 PM)
A reason tsla, etc tech stock shot to the moon. this could either make or break Masayoshi Son.
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Well he is ultimately too big to fail and whether coincidence or not managed to have Softbank hands in so many places that if anything happens they will take everyone down with them and it will just be another case of LTCM

QUOTE(yok70 @ Sep 5 2020, 03:03 AM)
this bear is hopeless....some turns green even....only red for 1 day meh! aiyo...
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Yeah
The Softbank news literary coincided with the bottom

They just refuse to close with some weakness
I guess this is just what happens with this much liquidity in the system

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 5 2020, 01:44 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 8 2020, 08:20 PM

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Nikola shares surge 45% after General Motors takes 11% stake in electric truck maker

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/general-mot...er&par=sharebar

QUOTE
Shares of Nikola surged Tuesday after General Motors announced that it’s taking an 11% stake in the electric truck maker and will  produce its marquee hydrogen fuel cell electric pickup truck the Badger by the end of 2022.

Nikola’s shares jumped by about 45% in premarket trading while GM jumped by almost 9%.

GM is getting a $2 billion stake in Nikola and the right to nominate one board member in exchange for in-kind services. GM will also become the exclusive supplier of fuel cells globally outside of Europe to Nikola for its class 7/8 truck. Nikola makes battery-electric and hydrogen-powered trucks.

“When we look at the opportunity to continue to leverage our technology -- the Ultium battery platform system as well as the Hydrotec fuel cell technology -- this is a wonderful validation of our technology, and then bringing our engineering and manufacturing expertise to the table,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Nikola founder and Executive Chairman Trevor Milton said the partnership gives Nikola access to GM’s validated parts as well as its Ultium battery technology and a multibillion dollar fuel cell program.

“Nikola immediately gets decades of supplier and manufacturing knowledge, validated and tested production-ready EV propulsion, world-class engineering and investor confidence,” Milton said in a statement. “Most importantly, General Motors has a vested interest to see Nikola succeed.”

Nikola began trading June 4 after a reverse merger with VectoIQ, which is a publicly-traded special purpose acquisition company headed by former vice chairman of GM Stephen Girsky. The stock has taken off since its IPO despite the fact that Nikola, which was founded in 2015, doesn’t expect to generate revenue until 2021, and shows the dispensation investors are willing to give to companies that promise vehicles of the future.

zacknistelrooy
post Sep 10 2020, 09:12 PM

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Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America

https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/


Interesting read but do note they have a short position already
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 10 2020, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Sep 10 2020, 09:47 PM)
hows the liquidity on EWM though for options ?
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Not great and they are monthly available only

Options for some of the Ishares ETF aren't that great and even for the Hong Kong ETF
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 16 2020, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 16 2020, 11:22 PM)
This is stupid lol. i que 120 and also think it's kinda expensive.

Initial ipo was supposed to be $80 only
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Book now is around 210 already

Another IPO with a ton left on the table it seems but they really went above the indicated price range even during pricing

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 16 2020, 11:23 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 16 2020, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 16 2020, 11:27 PM)
Ah... this is stupid. Whatever i que, i switch over to brk.b at 222. Let them fight  doh.gif
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Yeah
Looking at least for now around 0.5 bil profit

There is another IPO also going crazy:
JFrog

This also apparently might open 100% above IPO price
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 17 2020, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 16 2020, 11:44 PM)
I'm just amazed by Sequoia capital. They have a finger in all the best IPOs. After Zoom now this.
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They are quite well connected and the go to VC if you are one of the hot companies
They are in most of the hot companies including Bytedance
It pays well to be one but they aren't always on point like their Black swan memo in March

https://medium.com/sequoia-capital/coronavi...20-7c72bdeb9753


They are not done yet

Next up is Unity IPO and they own close to 25%

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 17 2020, 12:02 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 17 2020, 12:46 AM

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I don't think I have ever seen this at least in the past 10 years for any IPO

Circuit breaker just two minutes after opening
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 18 2020, 11:05 PM

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Unity IPO today

Current indication around 63 to 65

IPO price: 52

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