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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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dwRK
post Oct 20 2022, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 20 2022, 02:25 PM)
lai lai we all switch to Big Value shampoo from Aeon, let's bankrupt P&G. Together we can do it! laugh.gif
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eh... I cheap... but still got certain standards ok... hahaha

dwRK
post Oct 20 2022, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 20 2022, 01:33 PM)
P&G no moat and no pricing power to be honest. That's the reason I sold Unilever and never look back.

You increase price too much, people will just buy store brand. You want moat and pricing power, insurance, utilities, gas pipeline
electric transmission line, security software, google, Microsoft, Amazon, credit card.

That's why I said nowadays I only buy BlackRock, Google, Microsoft. Adobe, BIP, Visa, tsmc,
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lucky I only have xom... 'should' break ath soon... and hopefully another 15% up... wink.gif

dwRK
post Oct 26 2022, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 26 2022, 10:50 AM)
Arghh... GOOG and MSFT going to kill the market tomorrow.  doh.gif
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or pump it because soft landing in sight... laugh.gif

dwRK
post Oct 26 2022, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 26 2022, 12:30 PM)
Just buy and if it falls, dca it all the way baby!!

whistling.gif
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eh... why kacau me ah...

looks like market continues to rise... exactly as predicted months ago... muahahahahaha...

dwRK
post Oct 27 2022, 06:30 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 26 2022, 11:17 PM)
You bought already or still holding cash? Until the next time Jerome Powell open his mouth and said no pause in rate hike tongue.gif
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except for xom bought long ago, am still in cash... expect market to turn south again, so just observe first lah... been busy/tired so no trades to avoid mistakes...

dwRK
post Oct 27 2022, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 27 2022, 06:29 AM)
I would rather focus on WHY.

If I had made an investment in a stock. After say 6 months and I find my investment is LOSING money. The most important thing for me to do is to ask if I had made a mistake.

Yes?

One year later. Still losing money. Clearly I farked up. Yes?

So if I STUBBORNLY ignored the due process of reviewing my investment thoroughly and checking if it WAS ME that SCREWED Up and further aggravate the situation by AVERAGING Down, clearly I am stubbornly wrong.

Yes?

And even worst still... insisting to hold the stock for 15 years.

Take Meta (what a shitty new name. Lol).

Just a year ago, it was around 350? Now? Average down all the way just because of the global branding of Facebook? Or perhaps one should review if thereecist fundamental weakness in Meta businesss economics?

Average down of DCS should not be used as a correction strategy for one POOR initial investment decision...

user posted image
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the main problem is ppl never taught to sell... mainly just buy, dca n keep for donkey years... sell only when retire or when needed the money... lol... not sell because screw-up...

also... ppl inherently hopeful... tomorrow better day... sell today missed out tomorrow... lol...


dwRK
post Oct 27 2022, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 27 2022, 09:07 AM)
but yea.. yea.... last 3 words..... 'AM I WRONG' ..... that should always be asked when one is investing or trading.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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i always assume my every trade is wrong... hahaha...

meanwhile... am patiently waiting for the great reset... hope to see s&p another 20-30% down to enter and dca at basement levels... tongue.gif

dwRK
post Oct 27 2022, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 27 2022, 11:11 AM)
This is the great disconnect isn't it?

Traders can accept and assume of their potential screwups, while those 'investors' when they see prices fall, they never ever consider they might be wrong earlier. All they see is opportunity to buy more. Yup, like investors never wrong. Maybe they want to wait 15 years or more................
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a lot of ppl here young new investors mah... learn investing by watching yt... never burnt before... also exposure very low... maybe invest 1 share or 1k... got stable job... 50% paperloss not much can stomach... just go 1 veg chapfan for a while...

meanwhile you whack megabucks per trade... very painful when wrong... small mistakes 1 myvi gone... old hand at the game... point of view obviously very different

already got few ppl regret buying early or dca... quite sure many playing small money... so ok lah let them learn their own way... gotta start somewhere isn't it... wink.gif I always support hands-on lesson... but I also mentioned many times early this year... market not looking good...

anyways you should be happy these investors are around so you can unload your unwanted positions to them... hahaha


This post has been edited by dwRK: Oct 27 2022, 12:18 PM
dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 01:46 PM

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post here for the lol...
user posted image

got other scenarios but whatever lah... i just like the bat signal (or spider-man eyes)... hahaha...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Nov 2 2022, 01:48 PM
dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 2 2022, 01:53 PM)
Can you include the time axis as well?

When will we reach point (D) (labelled 4) around 4100? Jan. 2023?
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lower c box is Nov... upper d box is Dec... but i more interested at the levels and the price action/reaction off them... wink.gif

potentially we can hit d box in Nov thus bypass c box and invalidating this harmonic scenario... alternately we can start the collapse now... hitting c and gg to 3k... market dont go according to my daydreams ah... see point 3 & point a off by two weeks... hahaha

anyways they are same points since june... previous charts have the time axis

This post has been edited by dwRK: Nov 2 2022, 02:23 PM
dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 2 2022, 01:59 PM)
I was telling some fellow passengers in the plane,.......

1) If Mr Powell gives favourable news tonight, then news have leaked-out all over the world that the Feds is going to adopt a wait-and-see approach after this.

2) If Mr Powell continues to say : "we're going to keep at it" tonight.... then all of us got it wrong !!!!!!

3) And finally, if Mr Powell says,... we'll continue to be data-dependant", then,..
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maybe neutral until after the midterms... what are you betting?

This post has been edited by dwRK: Nov 2 2022, 02:25 PM
dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 2 2022, 03:23 PM)
I still believed in the SGD. I'll continue my campaign there. In the last few days, the major US Indices have closed lower now and then,.. Futures bounced up and down,... BUT the SGX has been climbing.

The SGX does not seem to be following the US lead,...
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straits time index has been in a range for the past decade... anyways spx sgx can trend somewhat together and doesn't have to be perfectly in sync...

for now sgd is weak against the dollar... anyways I've started paying attention to SGD n JPY...

dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 08:11 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 2 2022, 04:40 PM)
America’s Refiners Are Running on Premium
High natural gas prices in Europe and steeper discounts in sour crude oil are helping U.S. refineries squeeze out more profit

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-refin...share_permalink

---------------------------

Oil and Gas Profits Are an Easy Political Target
BP is the latest supermajor to report strong third-quarter earnings that are likely to fuel further calls for higher taxes as well as bumper shareholder returns

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-and-gas-pr...share_permalink

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see now they report what I said early this year... lol... des why don't rely too much on news... you wanna front run them...

dwRK
post Nov 2 2022, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Nov 2 2022, 04:14 PM)
have to see if smiley usage is the same
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i do miss that guy... lol...

dwRK
post Nov 3 2022, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 3 2022, 08:59 AM)
Bros,... I sat up last night and watched everything,... I looked at his face,... and the faces of the media personnel asking questions.

Mr Powell the rates must continue hiking but,.... he too reiterated more than once, there must come a time to stop, and he said he has mentioned this many times earlier.

I think,.... some mkts may not fall this momirng even after the falls in the US Indices early this morning.
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Yeah... look at turkey... hyper inflation... high interest rates... yet it's market keeps going up and up... smile.gif

been watching it go up a year liao... hahaha...


This post has been edited by dwRK: Nov 3 2022, 09:30 AM
dwRK
post Nov 3 2022, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 2 2022, 08:17 PM)
thumbup.gif So sifu, now what's the next news to front-run?  biggrin.gif
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pivot b confirmed good... target c looking good now... hehehe...

dunno man... lately I'm thinking of getting an electric car... but definitely not tesla... so maybe wait for nio to bottom? or battery techs etc... sustained high oil prices will drive some businesses there... but to be honest I haven't been looking and dunno what's out there...

I'm more thinking just play the indices lah no/less research needed... hahaha

dwRK
post Nov 4 2022, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2022, 10:43 AM)
btw can compare... its trailing profits vs the last annual profit...

user posted image
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dun worry... long term in 10 yrs huat ah... now is best time to accumulate... everyone else profit also no good... big discounts don't come often... buy when ppl are fearful... buy when blood on the streets... stay the course... keep dca... diamond hands baby.... hahaha hahaha...

laugh.gif

This post has been edited by dwRK: Nov 4 2022, 12:11 PM
dwRK
post Nov 4 2022, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2022, 12:31 PM)
Fuhhh.... devil.gif
the danger is the below...
during the fantastic growth years... we see profits go 30 > 34 > 40 > 76  which equals the stock to the moon and beyond.

now what if it enters the profit recession years? 76 > 66 (trailing numbers indication) > under 50?

if and if it does happen what would be Alphabet's valuation then? < 60?

and also need to address how long the profit recession would last? and the bigger issue is would earnings growth ever return? Cos if earnings growth does not return, what's the catalyst to drive the stock back higher?
that is how I would evaluate this stock risk.

icon_rolleyes.gif
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in a major recession... the concern is of survival, not valuation... cashflow vs profitability...

for sure majority of company will kena whack... some will not survive... some are immune... the remaining needs to adapt...

obviously the better managed will come out stronger... this is the early bet dca folks are placing...

dwRK
post Nov 5 2022, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 5 2022, 09:17 AM)
Ahhh, but if I was looking at google, I would only be looking at google and won't even making other comparison.

But you know me, I like to fight a good fight and more importantly, I like to fight an easy fight. Them sure win fights.

google at this moment of time, isn't one.

too many current headwinds/risk.

With google already warning of further ad slowdowns (which makes sense cos which company wants to spend big in a poor economic environment? one of the first few things it will cut down is ad spending), it would make prudent sense to wait (if and if I am interested).  But that's just me.  icon_rolleyes.gif
( biggest recent concerning news of course came from Maersk. Massive concern there. )

( and of course ... I am against what Fed is doing right now. A huge chunk of the inflation issues were created by what Trump did. Tarriff wars inflates prices. Raising 30% tariff on what Americans imports (from China) isn't smart at all, cos it will only end up raising cost of products. Increasing employment wages in hope of bringing jobs back to America has only inflate corporate costs, which corporates will only pass by inflating prices. )
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so what you wanna see before you buy goog?

dwRK
post Nov 9 2022, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 9 2022, 10:06 AM)
as they say, a leopard never loses its spots...

user posted image
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/elon-musk-s...sla-shares.html
so how to trust?

How to do business with someone I do not TRUST?
and the big picture... that's so clear, no?
user posted image
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Elon Musk == Lex Luthor


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