Q2 Earnings season is coming. Will it worst or better than Q1.

S&P500 bullish when Q1 earning decline -2%.  That is due to the expecting decline -6.6%.

Q2 earning might decline too. But better than expecting.

Tonight CPI 8.30am.

Not sure how you play.

Correction might on the way in this few month. But that doesn’t mean need to sell away. Buy more if the price cheap enough from the correction.

After correction, the stock will fly to a new high.

i am looking 6- 8 may 2024

I invest long term, once go in that's it leave it there till I need the money or old later.
Even paper loss also just leave it. Unless if the stock in question really need to sell due to the company being in deep shit.

So far my Amazon, Apple, Tesla stocks showing good results due to this. After 1 year+ can see they go up so much.
Then continue DCA once every few mths. Gave up on timing the market.. like yesterday news suddenly out of nowhere Fitch downgrades US' credit rating causing market to fall. Out of nowhere pops up.

Only news we can time somewhat is Fed's decision to raise interest rates (impact already over somewhere last year), or if company have many bad news and in decline (time to cut loss). Or if something really bad happens to US and time to sell our stocks.

I mean if long period of 0 interest rate like last time Covid, suddenly Fed say want to tighten interest rate, suddenly everything fall left right center.. so sure this is not a good time to buy any stocks (at least for the next 6 mths). This is the lesson I learnt.

0 interest rate time for few years = result in many overpriced stocks due to investors factoring in lower cost of bank debt.
once Fed announce interest rate hike for xx mths = market prices will calculate this in to reflect stock's actual price in the future. Stock prices will then drop step by step to its lowest actual.

if just started buying some stocks before that announcement, good to sell them and wait till prices stabilize. Else risk seeing lots of red in your portfolio after several months down the road. Some could take a longer time to recover to previous prices.

yeah of course check all these also, EPS, valuation (PE Ratios, PEG etc) before buying.
now talking about timing mar.. so this is my way to time in case if such a thing occurs again.

anyhow buying any stocks during low interest rates at US is dangerous, especially when stocks reach its peak price and inflation starts to booming.. anytime Fed can ring a bell everything fall to reality prices once again. I experience this at my own porfolio - so ngam I started investing US stocks end of 2021, a month before that Fed celaka announcement. I didn't sell fast enough, and hold many of them till now. Some really still deep red until now.  So just sharing my bad experience.

What's your take for PLTR valuation now ?

ya I wondering this also.. how to recession if job data so strong? Fed also not going all out to raise interest rates high.. but rather a few bips each time.

will see how it goes, if really recession means good also, good time to buy more stocks while they drop. Then likely Fed will announce some easing to boost economy.

Then the biggest pandora box in the room is ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.. dunno what will happen in the future with this. Really hope war fast2 end stock market sure boom if this happens.

US Treasury plans to raise the quarterly bond issuance size.

https://finance.mingpao.com/fin/instantf/20...%9e%8d%e8%b3%87

Under the new plan, US Treasury intends to:

1. issue 67 billion USD worth of 3 month T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)
2. issue 60 billion USD worth of 6 month T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)
3. issue 40 billion USD worth of 1 year T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)

As of end of July, Treasury has issued 799 billion USD worth of Treasury bonds, 2/3 are taken up by money market mutual funds.

TBAC (The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) "is comfortable running T-bills in the range of their longer-term historical share of 22.4% for some time before returning to the recommended 15-20% range, in order to maintain a regular and predictable approach to increasing coupon issuance."

Source: Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee dated 2nd August 23

Damn.. the banks are getting whacked.  They smell something fishy from the vault.

i see, i guess the speculation is that there will be further interest rate hike on AUD and JPY?

just curious

do u guys buy some short-term bond etf using the idle money thats sitting to be deployed to buy stocks

if yes, which etf u all buy?

the dividends from etf is also subjected to 30% tax right?

the yield seems very attractive now, if 5.3% gross yield, minus 30% tax still got around 3.7%

prob stock split again then...

Tonight is exciting and green (hopefully).

NVDA After hr pop over 500+.

1 stock can push the market up. crazy.

Great photo there, bro.... that's Powell when he was young,.... :thumbsup:  :thumbsup:

Pre-Powell speech at Jackson Hole now,... the USD keeps strengthening vs all other currencies. I wondered what will happen when Powell starts speaking,... USD weakens badly ????

SGD is also approaching all time high again vs our 'mighty' MYR. USD gaining strongly vs the CAD.

He has just finished speaking,... saw on Bloomberg. He insisted Feds wants 2%, NOT 3%. So,.. Feds will keep at it.

And no,... I have not converted my USDs into CADs yet,................. Come Monday,.. USD will be stronger. 

Powell just said they're NOT done raising rates yet (aka still very hawkish), still want to target 2% inflation. 

Their preferred inflation rate is actually "Core" not the Headlines. this is going to be tough because US labor market is still tight although some softening has appear but consumer spending still quite strong.

I think we'll be in at this level for the next 12-18 months, probably 2~3 more 25bps hike..  we'll gonna see 6%-6.25% Fed fund rate for sure if that happens.

Regarding currency... USD rises against CAD but the mighty Mexico "Pesos" is very strong!

On Ringgit vs SGD (or rest of the world).. wtf is wrong with Ringgit... even new govt also no confidence?

The preferred rdg is the PCE.

Feds can't determine the Neutral Rate.

SGD is also approaching all-time high vs the Ringgit. I suspect the politicians themselves all have foreign currencies.

US stocks kena goreng kao2.. won't fall for it again.

wait till red only buy. US Fed not done with raising rates and Ukraine war still ongoing.

Sept history usually is a bearish month. Will it happen this yrs?

Defensive stock
KO vs PG
Which would be better?
Sold off PG earlier of this year

ARM start trade at 10.30.

Why want to buy an overprice IPO? It is for the main holder to dump their share.

Wait at least 1/2yrs. When their staff finish sell all.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=shared&v=bmr8YmwnZ3w

"Dumb money"

Local movie company should make similar movie on glove stocks.

I think for most of us, keeping investment simple is the way to go. Opting for quick gains via option trading or buying in hype stocks almost always ends in disaster over the longer term.

For those who want to be big tech heavy (like me), i think besides buying individual names, the Vanguard Megacap Growth ETF (MGK) is best suited with a 5 year annualized return of 14%. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta and Netflix make up a whopping 58% of the entire fund. 28% of the fund is held by Apple and Microsoft alone which should provide long term price stability. Fluctuations and price sell offs are to be expected but i guess this will be more reason to buy even more when it happens.

https://etfdb.com/etf/MGK/#holdings

Thoughts?

0.07% expense ratio only. Very cheap yearly fees wooo considering the ease of life this etf offer.

I understand your perspective. You are advanced type of investor that got times to look and study the market.

while rookies or busy people like me, I don't have time to add, reduce or trim the position, Just don't have time for that. So I give some donation to vanguard.