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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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xander2k8
post Sep 20 2023, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Sep 20 2023, 01:34 PM)
Recently I read many unhappy with TD acc will move the CS ?
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Because they worried CS management
xander2k8
post Sep 21 2023, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 21 2023, 06:41 AM)
We also don't know how well CS will be.. eventhough ThinkorSwim won't change.

But, historically.. things will look messy especially data from old broker.. like stmts, transactions, etc..

CS also been losing a lot of money, hopefully they won't go bankrupt eventho our funds are supposedly  protected by SIPC and some by FDIC (on the regular banking side)  sweat.gif
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Not too worried about it πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ because trade as well being merged into MS hence they would have thought and being approved by SEC beforehand about the procedures and the follow through
xander2k8
post Sep 28 2023, 04:55 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 27 2023, 07:26 PM)
Bro AI thing is only sg govt rule. It affect brokerage in Singapore. As long as your brokerage is under MAS (LLC and not .com.sg) you won't be subjected to MAS rules on AI.

That's why I don't know what is MAS trying to do with TDA. Is it TDA fault or is it MAS fault. No one knows.

For me, my IB is under UK govt jurisdiction and I am happy with it. It's not open via .com.sg

Also I don't think unlike Malaysia and Singapore where you need to have priority banking firepower to buy bonds.
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It is no fault of either party πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ just that CS doesn’t want to have a CMSL license in Singapore as it is not worth their time and money to it because a CMSL license in Singapore is not transferable to the takeover party as it is only licensed to the applicant party until the business cease to exists
xander2k8
post Oct 4 2023, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 4 2023, 05:13 PM)
Why need to go for UST 10y or 30y ? DBS' USD FD is 5.15% for 1y.

Is it because you want to lock-in the rate for the longest period ? But why need to do this ?
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Because he like risk free and long duration πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 4 2023, 05:30 PM)
If FD rates start to drop, then we can start to switch over into equities and REITs. Let's if I'm right again,....
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It will start dropping by middle next year πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ once the drama showdown is done in the House and when election seasons hits ups because we are going through slowdown next year
xander2k8
post Oct 4 2023, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 4 2023, 05:50 PM)
Actually,... it's not riskfree too. If the USD starts depreciating, even if you get more USDs, the purchasing power will be lower.
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The risk is not the currency depreciation but inflationary value of the currency hence more issuance of TBills by the US govt

ATM with temporary delay of shutdown expect the short terms bills before a better significant value compared to the previous months

QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 4 2023, 05:55 PM)
Ok, so depends on your financial objectives. E.g. retire in Malaysia -> risk-free MGS/GII. But rates are terrible...

So we ahem... can take risky positions and views, e.g. MYR will continue to depreciate (against USD) in the long run. Then it makes sense to long US Treasury stuffs. laugh.gif
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Forget about MGS/GII πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ depreciation in value and inflation erodes its value faster long term

History has shown since late 80s when RM was breakaway and free floated it is being depreciated yearly πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ and never has gone back to close to the value half the value after free floating πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ
xander2k8
post Oct 4 2023, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 4 2023, 07:59 PM)
No way MYR can appreciate vs USD. Don't hope.
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Never has been since the late 80s when free float has RM appreciate even at 0.1% yearly πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ a good example comparing it against SGD will tells you a picture that RM has depreciated 350% against SGD for the past 35 years at average of 10% yearly
xander2k8
post Oct 6 2023, 12:40 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 5 2023, 11:36 PM)
You are 100% correct.. Even if some people are afraid that the USD are depreciating... when compare to MYR, the MYR is like a death spiral... MYR went from 2.5, to 3, to 3.5 to 3.8 (fixed for a while by you-know-who)... then back down to 3.5... 3.2 and suddenly 4 and above the last 5 years.... and now, MYR stuck in twilight zone and wanting to re-test 5 again.

Wonder BNM not willing to defend the MYR to combat domestic inflation?
Perhaps not enough pain yet?  hmm.gif
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It is not that BNM willing to defend but it is toolless in the 1st place πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ with usd110 billion in reserves to defend the currency it will be gone less than a week if they make the wrong move as history it is shown that the shortest serving BNM Governor make huge losses in Forex back in the 80s catching the eye of the Feds

The only tool BNM has it is OPR but yet PMX is intervening by forcing his hands in not to raise the OPR which is why mentioned many times that at the current level OPR is too low and it is has to be 50bp higher in order to defend the currency πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

That is why Singapore government is smart enough with its foresight back in the 80s with multi party and reserves to intervene and defend its currency when it’s needed and stabilise in order for currency to be stable which is a lesson yet Malaysia hasn’t learnt πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ since the pegging person has left the office
xander2k8
post Oct 6 2023, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 6 2023, 03:22 PM)
Msia's reserves are too low in absolute amt... somehow, raising the OPR only causes more pain for mortgage-holders rather than benefitting RM strength. Thisis the reson why the leaders think raising OPR will not work in Msia.

Raising the ctrl bank interest rates may work in other countries but not in Msia.
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But yet BNM is proud with their reserves πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ raising OPR is not about the pain for the mortgage holders but the politicians wants business instead to borrow more to spur the economy as housing market in Malaysia is already slowdown since 2018

If you think mortgage holders are painful in Malaysia try comparing in Aust at already close to 7% while US is at 7% range now πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ
xander2k8
post Oct 6 2023, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 6 2023, 03:58 PM)
Your statement abt the politicians is merely a hypothesis. Let it rest. It must be what you heard or at best, what you have experienced personally, but this does not constitute a wide perspective across the people when viewing the effect of higher interest rates to the population-at-large.

Australia and The US have minimum wage policies and after the sub-prime crisis, The US has better controls over who is eligible for loans and banks will only provide loans to such entities - individuals and companies. Today, with the higher interest rate environment, the 'control' would be better.

I wouldn't say Msia has above such structures in-place.
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BNM monetary committee is politically influenced πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ because of external members who are appointed by the Minister of Finance otherwise why do you think that they would not publicise the decision in public or taking press questioning or they have a voting system in place in the 1st place unlike the US where each Governor has rotation system with voting power unlike BNM which is unilateral system

Malaysia has implemented minimum wage policies a few years but unfortunately enforcement of it is lacking πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ plus it is highly influenced by the MEF πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

This post has been edited by xander2k8: Oct 6 2023, 06:07 PM
xander2k8
post Oct 7 2023, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 6 2023, 10:58 PM)
Hansel xander is not entirely wrong. Insider sources confirm to me that NO central bank in Asia is politically independent of their respective governments*. Some countries like China and Singapore explicitly mention the close relationship between their central banks and the government; some are more nuanced, like Malaysia. While western central banks are politically independent, they are not independent of commercial banks/business community. You probably know well that the board of the 12 Federal Reserve banks include member banks across the States.

When you can print money, that's a privilege that many will seek to abuse. In Asia, the abusers are politicians; in the West, it's the bankers/business community. (Well, you know how close politicians are with the powerful lobbyists of various businesses in DC anyway. laugh.gif )

*Of course, "textbooks" will tell you otherwise...

------------------------------

WSJ FINANCE | STREETWISE

Monetarism Is Back. It May Not Last.
Some on Wall Street predict bad times because of an unprecedented drop in the money supply

https://www.wsj.com/finance/monetarism-is-b...share_permalink

---------------------------

WSJ FINANCE | STOCKS | HEARD ON THE STREET

This Out-of-Favor Sector Is Benefiting From Higher Rates
Health insurers are earning more on their investments, partly offsetting higher procedure volumes

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/this-out...share_permalink

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WSJ BUSINESS | ENERGY & OIL | HEARD ON THE STREET

Exxon Doesn’t Need Luck for Pioneer Deal to Be a Winner
Exxon Mobil has a mixed record on megadeals, but buying Pioneer is no Wildcatter move

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exx...share_permalink

----------------------------------

WSJ TECHNOLOGY | ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | HEARD ON THE STREET

How Nvidia Got Hugeβ€”and Almost Invincible
The maker of graphics chips saw the AI revolution coming early on, and built a strong moat before other companies understood what was happening

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-nvidia-got-...share_permalink

------------------------------------

WSJ BUSINESS | RETAIL | HEARD ON THE STREET

The Birkenstock IPO Is Coming. Nobody Mention Crocs.
The private-equity owner of the orthopedic-sandal brand hopes to double its money in less than three years with a blistering $11 billion valuation

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/the-bir...share_permalink

------------------------------------

WSJ BUSINESS | HEARD ON THE STREET

The Robots Are Comingβ€”to Collaborate With You
Doosan Robotics’ blockbuster IPOβ€”the biggest in Korea this yearβ€”shows that the robot stock craze has well and truly arrived

https://www.wsj.com/business/the-robots-are...share_permalink
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Thanks for the clarification as big G7 central banks are privately and independent of the govts but however they are consider private bank which yields significant power to the markets hence why you see when they elect a new board member they have to go through public confirmation process unlike majority Asian central bankers are elected by PM and confirm through the head state without any due confirmation process with the exception of China where this is supposed to be a politburo for it which has been destroyed by Emperor Xi recently πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

This post has been edited by xander2k8: Oct 7 2023, 03:59 PM
xander2k8
post Oct 19 2023, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 19 2023, 10:31 AM)
With the earnings miss yesterday, i see Tesla dropping to $200. Will be a good entry point to build up a position. Once interest rate cuts start in 2H 2024, i see Tesla shooting back up again.

But for Netflix i think its a good entry point tonite considering they added 8.8 mil new subscribers vs 5.9mil previous quarter. All time high was $700 in Nov 2021 while the high for 2023 was $485. Market should open at $400-410 tonite.
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Netflix is only temporary bump πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ because of writers and actors strike and it will go down to mid 300 come year end
xander2k8
post Oct 20 2023, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 20 2023, 10:33 AM)
Sorry but i think you are incorrect. The strike IMPACTED Netflix because they were unable to churn out as many shows as they normally would have. And the main reason why Netflix will continue to go up is because of the increasing revenue streams.

Also in terms of financials, Netflix is pretty strong vs the cash rich Big Tech giants. In terms of price/sales, price/cash and price/book value, Netflix is cheaper than all Big tech companies. It also has a net income thats on par with Nvidia. Forward PE ratio is lower than Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia and half that of Tesla. For Return on Equity (ROE), Netflix is on par with Meta but higher than Amazon.

Netflix is high volatility and $100 moves are to be expected. But i think long term, Netflix will remain strong unless there is a major impact on subscriber growth or revenue. I got into Netflix at around $70 back in 2018 and have been buying consistently every time i get a 15-20% price drop. Same with my other Big Tech positions.
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Sorry you are wrong πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ because Netflix has a huge library of international content, and because many of its shows and films are produced abroad in the 1st place πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ
xander2k8
post Oct 22 2023, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Oct 21 2023, 01:50 PM)
Wait for 4000 for the real carnage. I think it can go down to that level.
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I am looking 3930 for the real carnage which will happen once long term yields with 5 handle

Expect it to happen during Nov Fed meeting
xander2k8
post Oct 23 2023, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Oct 23 2023, 05:22 PM)
The lower it goes the more I buy. Hahaha
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It might go even lower but you have see this week conditions to signal go ahead after next week so I am just like you standing by to buy another round

Earnings are not the driver but the macro and geo is the current driver
xander2k8
post Oct 25 2023, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 24 2023, 10:26 AM)
If Big Tech earnings remain strong, you can expect the market strength to remain. You dont need all stocks to show strength. Big Tech alone can carry the weight of the market.
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BigTech is not the driver this round πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ but overall macro and geo is the driver

Earnings will be bleh and market will just go up a bit and then come back crashing down πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ and it will be sideways till year end


xander2k8
post Oct 26 2023, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Oct 26 2023, 11:40 AM)
wait for bloodbath to end first before going in.. seems like possibility for market to drop even more till they see a stable interest rate outcome. Fed keep being hawkish and ongoing 2 wars adding more fuel to the fire.
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That is why have to be patient because the bloodbath just starting and next week will be even more volatile than this week so get your shopping list ready πŸ‘

There is no way you can time the bloodbath ends πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ so it is just strap on and get ready to enter at the right price
xander2k8
post Oct 27 2023, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 26 2023, 02:17 PM)
So far its Big Tech earnings which are causing the bloodbath on Nasdaq with Alphabet and Meta leading the way. Even the slightest miss or negative future earnings news is resulting in the sell off.
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You read too much on the headlines πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ the bloodbath is caused by Fed impending hike and the geo wars sentiment which causes sell off πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ even Meta and Amazon beat earnings expectation yet still falling

QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 26 2023, 02:20 PM)
Correct. Ill add to my positions next week too
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That is why wait next week Fed meeting to see whether Dec hike is impending or not πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ but expect next no hike and there should opening to add on Big 3As
xander2k8
post Oct 29 2023, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 29 2023, 01:29 PM)
You said earnings will be bleh and market will go up before falling. The opposite has happened.
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Earnings still bleh πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ and it has gone up and the down after earnings results πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ so it the same as what said

Look at your beloved MGK πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ already tells you the story in the past week chart up the 1st part week and the down in the back half of the week

This post has been edited by xander2k8: Oct 29 2023, 09:56 PM
xander2k8
post Oct 31 2023, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 31 2023, 10:47 AM)
Doubt anybody invests in ETFs to look at weekly price movements. I don't even look at my individual positions that frequently. Im looking to add to Tesla is there is a bigger sell off towards $180 this week. All my positions are long term holds which last years.
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I just take your MGK πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ as an example for you rather than the Nasdaq in the case but the true reflection is the index overall picture

People who play options or futures πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ on ETFs does look at weekly prices
xander2k8
post Nov 4 2023, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Nov 3 2023, 09:31 PM)
Unemployment rate up 3.9%. Previous 3.8%

Bad news is good news.
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If it goes up to 4.2% expect a cut in rates then

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