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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Cubalagi
post Nov 3 2020, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 2 2020, 11:10 PM)

For this week, I'm going to stay out from trading until after election to see where's the market is heading.  tongue.gif
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The risk is a hung election where a slim victory will cause the other not to concede. That will cause another drop.
Cubalagi
post Nov 9 2020, 08:21 PM

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Dow Futures up 5+%..

Pfizer announced vaccine results
Cubalagi
post Jan 5 2021, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 5 2021, 12:31 AM)
Georgia run off and a possibility of a demo controlled senate plus jan 6 election result protest.

What are the odds something could go wrong big time in this week.

Just hodl like bitcoin haha.
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US market is starting to price in a possibility of Dem win.scared of all the Trump tax cuts being rolled back.

But I prefer Dem to take control of Senate. More stimulus & more green investments.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 5 2021, 08:43 AM
Cubalagi
post Jan 6 2021, 04:07 PM

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Keeping an eye out on US politics tonight:

1. Trump last ditch attempt to block electoral college vote. Likely to fail.

2. Senate race in Georgia. Dems already projected to win 1 seat. If the 2nd one Dems can take, it will be a big change.


Cubalagi
post Jan 12 2022, 11:39 PM

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7% inflation and US market continues to rebound :-0

Even bonds are down only marginally.

Cubalagi
post Jan 20 2022, 07:45 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Jan 20 2022, 02:06 AM)
Too many to name and go look for Oxy
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Too many to name?

How many stocks do you hold?



Cubalagi
post Jan 20 2022, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Jan 20 2022, 11:33 AM)
A couple of hundred

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Wow..even fund manager kalah
Cubalagi
post Feb 11 2022, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 11 2022, 02:00 AM)
We got our Knee-Jerk reaction dump at open and they're buying dips now.

Anyway, the macro side of 7.5% inflation is bad for US. Now, the full bps rate hike for the year is likely in place.
Maybe next month (March FOMC meeting), they'll put a 0.5% immediately.

US market will likely pull back some more but I think market participants will step in to buy the dips because historical even at full 1 percentage point for the year, it's still low compare to Sp500 potential earnings.

Compare to Malaysia, I don't think Malaysia has not hit this inflation level since a long time ago...
But, I think this could hit Malaysia later because we import so much stuff. Ringgit could be under pressure again.
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1 full percentage point is not bad n likely price in. But I think the market is worried it can be higher than that..like.1.25-1.50. U then might see an inverted yield curve, which is leading indicator of recession.

On Malaysia, we have been exporting much more than we are importing.Our trade surplus is at record high.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2022/01/766...toric-high-2021







Cubalagi
post Feb 11 2022, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 11 2022, 02:42 AM)
In fact Malaysia already double digit inflation long time ago as you can see with the chicken price and petroleum price  doh.gif

Only thing is not happening because DSM data is not accurate and the number being fudge by hidden hands and subsidies in play  doh.gif

If you look at yearly budget deficits by the government it is due to inflation hence more MGS being floated around to fight while being forced upon by GLC and associates  doh.gif
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Petrol price high?.U don't use Ron 95?
Cubalagi
post Feb 11 2022, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 11 2022, 02:39 PM)
Did you read properly?  doh.gif

If it is not because of subsidies you will be paying rm3.50 per litre at the pump  doh.gif
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The subsidies reduce inflation.

Oil price high is good for Malaysia. Petronas sells oil at high prices. Government subsidize Ron-95, but get bigger dividends from Petronas.
Cubalagi
post Feb 12 2022, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 11 2022, 02:56 PM)
Speaking of truth, I didn't use RON95.  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 12 2022, 10:18 PM)
all in oil stocks... lol...

probably close some off next week...
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Its nice to be long oil

While enjoying subsidized RON95. 😁

Win Win


Cubalagi
post Feb 22 2022, 08:13 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/21/putin-recog...ndependent.html

S&P now for sure will go into correction territory


Cubalagi
post Feb 23 2022, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Feb 23 2022, 05:37 AM)
Wht price steadily going up
but once close market.. after market price plunge sharp?
Internal manipulate?
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Perhaps a result announcement?
Cubalagi
post Feb 24 2022, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Feb 24 2022, 09:17 AM)
thinking of buying some SGOL or PHYS to accumulate some gold short term during this volatility. Saw their prices keep shoot up.
SGOL has lower expense ratio than PHYS.

once market go up again then sell. Is this a good idea? Or better just buy stocks/ETFs while they are on a discount?
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Gold is a defensive/insurance asset class. Gold tend to do well when other assets are doing badly.

I keep between 5-10% allocation in Gold..Sell a bit if it runs up too high and buy a bit when it drops. Otherwise just HODL.


Cubalagi
post Feb 24 2022, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Feb 24 2022, 11:54 AM)
thanks for the info.. now I feel Gold is halfway there to the top during this bear market. Wanna put some cash in for some profit.  smile.gif

don't feel like buying bonds now as it is at a all time low and might go lower.. later once stock market improve then start buying some AGGU or AGGG.
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Gold should hit 2k pretty soon.

But there are a lot of possibilities of accidents in war. Things can get worse. So perhaps gold can even breach all time high of 2067 in 2020.

That's about 6+% upside. Not a get rich investment I would add.

U might want to consider, gold miner ETFs like GDX or GDXJ for more uumph

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 24 2022, 06:11 PM
Cubalagi
post Feb 26 2022, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 26 2022, 06:37 PM)
History market shows,  mostly war and conflict don't have a long effect on the market.

Short term and bullish at the end of the yrs.
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I guess will really depend on the nature and outcome of the conflict.

Say, if this escalate to nukes, in worse case scenario.

Cubalagi
post Feb 27 2022, 12:49 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 27 2022, 12:20 AM)
It is base on the data of crisis impact on Dow jones back to 1941 (Pearl Harbor attack)  till today Covid pandemic.

Look back at the history. No point just guessing and speculation.
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None of that history has a nuclear exchange.. it was just one way on Japan and just two atomic bombs.
Cubalagi
post Mar 3 2022, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 2 2022, 11:10 PM)
no
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With 7.5% CPI, u don't call that overheating?

Cubalagi
post Mar 23 2022, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Mar 23 2022, 08:41 AM)
US stocks and ETFs keep go up, up, up now...

Bull rally happening  biggrin.gif

So big difference after Fed confirm interest rate hike last week.
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This is probably the last rally before everything come crashing down later.

I wouldn't get too complacent, n will look for exit targets.
Cubalagi
post Mar 23 2022, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Mar 23 2022, 10:58 AM)
how do u know will crash again? on what reason?

normal ya in the past when interest rate increase US  stock markets crash a bit, after that will recover even after subsequent increases.

Ukraine War, Russia side already losing steam. Already got rumor of peace /ceasefire. Best is Putin get assassinated or kicked out of office, might happen soon too.
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The last tightening cycle ended up with a crash in end 2018, with S&P500 down about -20% from peak to bottom.

The Fed bailed out the market by reversing the interest rate policy n stopped QT.

However, the macro environment was very different. Inflation was low and Fed balance sheet was not as gigantic as it is now. I don't think Fed is in position to jump in so early to save the market nowadays.

Before that was the tightening cycle that ended with the 2008 crash. That's about 50% down of the S&P from peak to bottom.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 23 2022, 11:28 AM

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