In The Syrian Ceasefire Shell Game, The Good Guys May Be Bad Guys
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A close look at Ahrar al-Sham, the so-called moderate Salafist militia, backed by U.S. allies, that’s actually allied with al Qaeda
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At midnight on Feb. 27, after months of negotiations and meetings in Geneva, New York, Moscow, Riyadh, and elsewhere, and after an intense day of Russian airstrikes, a partial ceasefire came into effect in Syria
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While many are quick to point out Russian and regime aggression is a threat to the truce (and rightly so), less attention is given to concerns about the opposition
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One rebel group in particular, Ahrar al-Sham, has made the situation extremely complicated and is an enormous threat to the ceasefire’s success
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On the one hand, the group has made real efforts to present itself as moderate and distinct from Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, which is excluded from the current ceasefire
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On the other hand, Ahrar al-Sham has worked closely with Nusra since the war began and has been in a formal alliance with it since early 2015
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Ahrar al-Sham may appear to be a group divided—teetering between moderation and extremism, between democracy and Salafism—but this is likely a charade
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Under its original leadership, Ahrar al-Sham was already clearly a radical Salafist militia. Though the group’s founder, Hassan Aboud, refused to pledge allegiance to al-Qaeda and claimed to have ideological disagreements with Nusra
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To Ahrar al-Sham’s credit, its forte was guerilla-style fighting and it steered away from the Nusra-style suicide bombings, but it committed its own war crimes against Syria’s civilians
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After a September 2014 explosion killed Hassan Aboud along with many of Ahrar al-Sham’s senior leadership, Hashem al-Sheikh (also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Jaber) took control of the group
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Off the op-ed pages and on the ground, the reality was entirely different. Over the course of 2015, Ahrar al-Sham’s new, “more moderate” leadership had dramatically expanded its cooperation with Nusra
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Ahrar al Sham’s actions contradicted its rhetoric, yet that was no accident. The group played both angles—boasting democratic values and fighting for Salafism—and it benefited from each
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Nusra could hardly afford to squabble with Ahrar al-Sham when the two groups were busy fighting an Assad reinforced by increased involvement from Iran and Russia
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In September, Hashem al-Sheikh stepped down as emir, making way for Abu Yahia al-Hamawi, who continued to push the notion that Ahrar al-Sham was mainstream and aligned with Western interests
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Al-Hamawi reportedly claimed that Nusra had withdrawn from the Army of Conquest—a rumor that would have been convenient for the umbrella group’s foreign backers, but nonetheless proved false
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In late February, Ahrar al-Sham entered into a new coalition with a handful of Islamist and FSA militias under the leadership of its former emir, Hashem al-Sheikh. The new umbrella group is called “Jaish al-Halab,”
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Why then form this confederation? Jaish al-Halab is a means by which Ahrar al-Sham can play both sides of the newly implemented ceasefire. If hostilities resume (beyond the small scale violations seen already), Ahrar al-Sham can of course continue its close cooperation with Nusra
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But if the ceasefire holds, Ahrar al-Sham can separate from Nusra; go dormant in the fight against the regime; stockpile weapons from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey; and exert significant control in northwest Syria—all legitimized by the international process
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016...e-bad-guys.html