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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(cofin @ Nov 10 2020, 09:51 AM)
Time to TP my GenM ... crazy news. Cmco till December as if Genting can profit
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Congrats ez 15% for you today
HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(cofin @ Nov 10 2020, 09:59 AM)
Haha from hopeless coz the cmco news out I tot gone case my GenM.

Then suddenly this goreng news 90% success for vaccine
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It looks like Supermx and Kossan might have hard time replacing Gentings soon
HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(shahrul09 @ Nov 10 2020, 10:19 AM)
Not like we can get Vaccine anytime soon...i dont understand Why airlines go up. Sure gonna come back down. Next year Q2 only we can get the vaccine.
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Me too especially on AAX. For airlines and Gentings, I am expecting it to drop at least until year end unless they bring forward the border reopening date (which is planned to be reopened in 2H2021)

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 10 2020, 10:27 AM
HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 12:06 PM

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The Big 5s are back carrying the market!!
PBB
MBB
CIMB
HLB
RHB

HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(kembayang @ Nov 10 2020, 12:18 PM)
When was the last period we saw banks move more than 10%?
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2009
HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 10 2020, 01:14 PM)
Belanjawan2021 : BN akan sokong dengan bersyarat, antaranya pelanjutan moratorium, pengeluaran KWSP secara 'one-off' - Najib

Banks gonna tank again. Sad.
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It was out 6 days ago
https://www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/...ang-kwsp-266801

Najib just repeating it
HereToLearn
post Nov 10 2020, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Nov 10 2020, 01:39 PM)
Another vaccine news
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More good news coming, IB will start upgrading some stocks from 'neutral' to 'overweight' - rotational play soon.


HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Nov 11 2020, 11:23 AM)
Do tell regarding Ytl reit.

As covid vaccine isn't anytime soon, it's property would still be not able get profit no? 🤔
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But when the vaccine is already start distributing (this means post phase 3 approval), you wont be able to get at this price anymore. Still I am a bit skeptical going into hospitality and flights before a phase 3 approved vaccine is authenticated by WHO. However, we all know that phase 3 approval will not take too long from now. It is a bet la going in now. But might turn out to be a very very good bet
HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 11 2020, 02:14 PM)
The game of stock market, is when everything is known by everyone and is confirmed, it is too late.

Hence that's why stock market always works on the basis, buy on rumour, sell on news.

When vaccines finally being distributed, airliners, hospitality stocks likely already rise a lot from the bottom.
Vice versa, glove stocks are taking a hit early on now, anticipated vaccine progress, if not it won't trading at single digit PE.

Similarly, banking stock was trading at single digit PE, high discount to book value, because of anticipate of rise in NPL due to pandemic.

That's why at the moment due to drastic change in economy situation, PE is not a good barometer for valuation, and may result a PE trap.

This had happened on refining stocks many years back, steel stocks as well.
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Slightly disagree, still can go up when everything is known by everyone (e.g. huge profit was known for gloves but after the dip in June still climbed higher).

Maybe some gloves are now trading at single digit PE because of the NP normalization in CY2022? Because post 2021, all gloves will be PE > 15.

Some banking stocks are still trading at single digit PE.

What I want to say is that joining the bandwagon (for hospitality and airlines) only after the sentiment is more positive is a safer approach. Yes, might miss out huge gain, but might also save you from unnecessary losses.
HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 11 2020, 06:45 PM)
Wow tiger bank managed to end in the green!
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PBBANK KLCI Top gainer. Slow transition of rotational play into recovery stocks. At least these ones can hold as FD.
HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 07:15 PM

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https://www.ft.com/content/25153489-1d3a-4e...b4-d1bdd613e023

Just sharing about
China Tech Stocks. Have a look smile.gif
HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 11 2020, 06:47 PM)
PAT 545mil last qtr, kuan has the cash if he wants to do it; but i wud think he feels the stock price relative to all the rest is OK, no need...?
they wanna buy back up to 10% or 820mil shares for HK listing.

now, after all that buying, only 68mil in treasury.

surely dun have all the cash to do 10%, will need lim himself to let go some of his 30%.
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Imagine him letting go some of his 30% in HK market. Realizing his gains in cash - Instantly cash rich in HKD. Smart wise man drool.gif
HereToLearn
post Nov 11 2020, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 11 2020, 05:32 PM)
watch out bank shares tmr.

and renewed bursa goreng action!
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GG bye.gif

QUOTE(Deathscythe@@ @ Nov 11 2020, 05:49 PM)
Not official yet ba. This guy is who? LOL. unless AA or PM8 mentioned it then something to look into.
To lure ppl dump banks stocks? lol
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The question is if it drops due to the moratorium rumours. Do you dare to buy? Suddenly moratorium becomes a reality, straight gg
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 12 2020, 08:54 AM)
foresee gonna drop today due to loan moratorium extension
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Looks like recovery play is still strong? Banks and Gentings green

Is extension just a political talk with no action?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 12 2020, 10:17 AM
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Nov 12 2020, 10:50 AM)
most sectors becoming green except for gloves
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So tempting to long FKLI
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 12 2020, 10:56 AM)
MAYBANK UP UP UP UP UP UP rclxm9.gif

hopefully this vibe is positive enough

we shall see when the budget goes for voting next week. unlikely just mere political talk.
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Haha if moratorium extension is approved, then

It is extension vs recovery theme. See which is stronger
Fundamental wise (downgrade): banks will have limited cash to make new loans until June 2021 then

Quite stupid, limit new loan confirm limit economy growth
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 12 2020, 11:02 AM)
Our banks ( the big 3 at least) are flowing with money lol. Even during Q2 with moratorium they still made nett profit of BILLIONS. And october some of these people have started paying back. so i foresee q3 will nett profit as well.
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Profit yes in accounting terms. But the cashflow is reduced lo. Will continue record +ve if they dont increase loan loss provision substantially.

Just that if extend moratorium the cashflow is reduced (hence less new loan can be made),
profit wise still same cause interest still going on. But with reduced cashflow, less new loan to people, less profit growth. So in short term, hurting the banks fundamentally in profit growth perspective, not hurting the profit.

However in longer term perspective, banks still have a lot of room as their PEs are damn low and will be even lower during economy expansion.
KLFI now is 13k, the last peak back in 2018 was 18k

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 12 2020, 12:11 PM
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(immobile @ Nov 12 2020, 01:19 PM)
make sense though...true...there is just way too much unsold units (apartments) over klang valley atm....is quite bad and serious but developers just keep building and buldinggg  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif
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100% agree that as of now, property is no longer an investment option, it is more like a luxury to own (e.g. car, rolexes, branded bags etc)
HereToLearn
post Nov 12 2020, 03:38 PM

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Wowow look at the recovery plays. Start buying the laggards lol
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post Nov 12 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Nov 12 2020, 03:51 PM)
So, you all believe in recovery play now ah? Gloves sudah tak laku lah?
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Gloves fundamental still good. At least good until 1H2021. Some recovery laggards have lower PE than gloves based on 2021NP. and their PE will be even lower than gloves going into 2022. So some recovery laggards offer better longer term than gloves.

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