Nasdaq (growth) has up so damn much compared to value stocks. 2% drop is nothing. The performance disparity between value and growth is so huge that eventually there will be a shift to value.

A shift to value stocks "is increasingly likely over the next 12 months," said Eduardo Costa, who runs hedge fund Calixto Global Investors, LP.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/big-...matter-who-wins

I thought we are already in one?
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-da...0an%20expansion.

Expecting to crawl out of recession next year instead of going into it.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 2 2020, 02:40 PM

Wait wait, I just check trading economics. We already have 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I am pretty sure, we are already in a recession
https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp-growth

The question now is: how long will we be staying in it?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 2 2020, 03:00 PM

Maybe it will be a longer than average recession.
Average recession lasts 18 months.

I will be super patient and wait these data
the unemployment rate on 9 Nov: best if it reduces; if it spikes up too high, not a good sign
the Q3 Gdp on 13 Nov: if -ve, recovery is still far away, if +ve, I will start betting on recovery plays

As in -ve and +ve numbers... It is absolute, not a choice...

Partially agreeing on this - Provision like what CIMB did also excessive
CIMB is not as prudent when giving out loans, which justifies a higher provisioning, but yeah it looks a bit too excessive

Some banks that have shown better earnings in the previous QR2 are mainly because they did not set a lot of the earnings as loan provision. This might hurt them when the NPL spikes. For CIMB, they took the initiative to set a lot more, hence hurting more now. It is expected for CIMB to continue to set aside a huge chunk of their earnings for provisioning in QR3 too, so upcoming QR result also wont be good.


Definitely don't invest in bank till you see GDP growth. But no people say about trading for a Q4 surprise right? - We will know if it is worth betting on recovery plays on 13 Nov. IMO, it is best not to speculate on surprises... If recovery is on track, CIMB analyst expected NP for 2021 is 3655mil. Assuming, 20% lower than expected NP for CIMB, it still looks somewhat ok in terms of PE.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/capi...le-big-cap-2020

It is easier to find undervalued counters than overvalued counters in a recession though, the market doesnt seem very overvalued to me. Based on 2021 NP forecast at current price, 1/3 of KLCI stocks have PE <15, 1/10 of KLCI stocks have PE <10

Always ready when GDP numbers turn better, can split into 6 batches and buy abit every 3 months. But Maybank PE is not low though, still double digits. For banks,
CIMB, RHB, HLFG are the single digit PE bank-related counters in KLCI.

One nuclear bomb that will affect banks is PH's proposal of moratorium extension to March 2021. If passed in Budget 2021, can run

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 2 2020, 06:00 PM

Says who? Provide source le. Dont simply simply spread rumours

*B*H wants to cripple the financial system, so that they can do the blame game for incompetence and win the next GE.
If the suggestions turn out well, they will claim the credit

I think they should and will implement it. They already made banks, utilites to be national charity sources for 6 months.
Banks with moratorium
Utilities with tenaga

They gonna request GLCs to show leadership by creating more jobs too.

3pm

True 10% also wont put a big dent to the profit. It approximately changes the PE from 10 to 11.

I hope your dream comes true

Without windfall tax, based on 2021NP,
Topglov now about PE 10
Harta about PE 35.

Harta damn tank, staying afloat at high PE for so long. Operators play at its best.

2022, gloves already not as profitable as 2021. Windfall tax also no meat left to eat

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 3 2020, 03:05 PM

Nice OPR no cut, economy recovery is right on BNM's projected track.

So the next 3 to shine lights/provide sneak peek on economy recovery would be
6 Nov - Budget 2021
9 Nov - Unemployment data
13 Nov - Q3 GDP data

Did BNM no OPR cut announcement just send a few bank counters flying?

Same for recovery plays. Start engine liao

Yeah true, because windfall tax on gloves will have no meat left in 2022. Quite pointless to have windfall tax

Forward looking market, so fast want to play economy expansion theme

Market sentiment around the world damn good.
http://en.stockq.org/

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 4 2020, 11:59 AM