No bro, it dropped until 6.45 on 10 Sep (at this point its PE based on CY2021 earnings was < 8) but the fundamental was still the same. Sometimes, it is just wash out, with funds staying/chasing elsewhere, e.g. bonds

Just like recovery stocks with single digit PE based on CY2021 earnings, superb value but no demand because all funds still chasing elsewhere despite having multiple signs of recovery
- yield curve is steepening
- vaccine is around the corner

Since after the last big drop, there is less washout already, share price has been more steadier after less retailers participant and lesser huge speculation activities. - this is true, agreed

The 30%, 40% profit margin currently enjoyed by gloves, don't think it is sustainable over the long term. - this is also true, the latex price has been increasing, ASP is expected to drop after 1H2021

EPF incr stake price tak le pakai. I once saw EPF kept topping up MBB at 7.4ish, now 7.08, same for other banks as well

People dont really care about the PE now. So dont worry, the glove is king sentiment is there.
If no sellers, price wont drop. Just take a look at
PETDAG: T4QPE 50, forward PE = -ve 333, last 2 quarters almost 0 earnings, DY% about 1% still about flattish.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 27 2020, 11:00 AM

Bro
Use this for profits estimation for Topglov and Harta
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/capi...le-big-cap-2020
I believe this profit already taken ASP drop after 2021H1 into account.
I think the profits are basically somewhat fixed already since the backlog order is already there.

According to the estimated profits, there are banks that will do much better than gloves in terms of PE, but most investors are avoiding banks because the profits are not as certain as gloves (higher risk investing in banks than gloves and the thematic play now is still gloves, still waiting the vaccine to slowly transition into the recovery theme yet). So topglov now is still a pretty good bet based on PE, but market can be irrational i.e. captain harta could continue maintain his high PE status for next 10-20 years.

Will you hold gloves long term, as in one year and above? - If most people want to collect the DY before getting out, then wont drop next year. Even if it really drops, there will be support once the DY% becomes attractive enough, so wont drop too much. Look at HLB and HLFG, did it drop alot? NO, because +ve earnings and still giving dividends.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/supe...tocks-says-midf
Based on her estimates, dividend yields for Top Glove would be 5.1%/2.3% for FY21/FY22. Meanwhile, dividend yields for Hartalega are expected to be 2.1%/1.9% for FY21/FY22, followed by Kossan at 2.2%/1.4% for FY21/FY22 and Supermax at 3.1%/3%.

PS: not a buy call. I dont have any position in gloves, cause I personally do not feel comfortable holding it more than 1 year.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 27 2020, 06:23 PM

Hahaha all stocks in Malaysia are highly manipulated. Yes, I mean ALL. It is just easier with pennies, because less fund is needed. All growth stocks do a lot of marketing to sell you a future value (like property). Then, you have to hold until fundamentals truly reflect the value (IF they manage to grow as per expected). The are rumors out there saying that if Biden wins, all growth stocks (tech alike) might plunge, favoring healthcare, green energy and value stocks like banks and industrial.

So dont try to predict the direction, just buy the undervalued strong companies (those that are in the blow off phase). It might not grow as much and fast, but at least it is below the intrinsic value.The downside to this method is slow money. Really really slow money. Even though, the stocks are undervalued, the price will not rise until the operators have collected enough and decide to start pushing them upwards, unless all retailers unite and buy like what happened in early phase of the gloves mania, or like what happened post GFC in the banks.
Retailers participation spiked in April 2009 spiking all the big banks price.

The reason to buy strong companies is so that even if you stuck forever, you can collect the small small dividends for the next 20 years to breakeven (in terms of cash in hand) with additional stocks bought left the in fridge 20 years ago.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 28 2020, 10:42 AM

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/capi...le-big-cap-2020
Tenaga CY2021 NP 5031 mil

Now have 50% discount until year end (this year QR all confirm bad)

At least wait until it reaches PE8 based on the forecast?
TP RM7? at PE8

I reasoning for PE8 is simply because why want to buy Tenaga, when there are other recovery counters offering lower PE than PE8

Just my 2 cents

Got undervalued ones. Just no people dare buy, cause buy also drop, triggering more to sell now than to buy now. So people mentality now are = why buy now? Wait next month, cheaper, wait next month cheaper.

So we have to wait the operators telan all shares until it stop dropping 1st, and showing signs of pushing (maybe when they start releasing news)

Good sharing
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/artic...-Lagging-Growth
“On March 31, 2000, growth stocks had outperformed value stocks in the US over the prior year, prior five years, prior 10 years, and prior 15 years. As of March 31, 2001 — one year and one market swing later — value stocks had regained the advantage over every one of those periods,”

Not coming back until the tech burst

I think it is unwise to leave tech stocks unsupervised, dont leave it and check back again 1 year later. Some of their PEs are so high now that if the growth expected is not reflected in QR. Growth investors might start dumping. If the drops a lot, this will trigger momentum investors to start selling, and consequently trigger the selling spiral until value investors start buying.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 29 2020, 12:23 PM

At that price, your dividend yield will be about 5% next year and 2% the following year. And for the subsequent years, we dont know. But a good conservative way would be assuming 2% for the subsequent years until a new pandemic is back.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/supe...tocks-says-midf
Based on her estimates, dividend yields for Top Glove would be 5.1%/2.3% for FY21/FY22. Meanwhile, dividend yields for Hartalega are expected to be 2.1%/1.9% for FY21/FY22, followed by Kossan at 2.2%/1.4% for FY21/FY22 and Supermax at 3.1%/3%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-repo...arter-2020.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-third-q...020-11603908566

Lai lai lai, recovery is on its way. The main catalyst is still the phase 3 approved vaccine. Minimum of 2 more months for the first phase 3 approved vaccine

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Oct 30 2020, 08:37 AM

Wow whole page red

very diversifed

FF keeps selling, no point to buy now. Better to wait until after US election and Budget 2021 - later budget 2021 suddenly comes with one windfall tax, all will run.

Also if FF keeps selling until trigger others stop loss, more will sell and will trigger momentum traders to follow suit.


The only thing we know about budget2021 is an expansionary budget, might focus on building more hospital. The safer bet now is into infrastructure. But all we need is just to wait 4 more days.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 2 2020, 11:15 AM

Tbh, the market sell-down during a recession is actually a good thing for us to collect low if you dont need to use the money in near future. As long as you have the holding power, just hold the cyclical stocks until near expansion peak and dispose them.

Just buy the stocks you are comfortable holding for a very long term, because in short term, bursa stock price/direction is usually determined by operators

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Nov 2 2020, 12:53 PM

Everything related to FinToch Glubul is pure goreng. They are PE firm, their job is to restructure a company and then sell

What to do?
FF keeps selling malaysia equities to buy malaysia bonds.

Regardless what the news say about FunTech Glubul, they are very good at what they are doing. Took the opportunity of this liquidity fueled by moratorium bull run, mempershuiyukan retailers, made super profit. PE < 1.