Bear temporarily drowned by flooding of QE and stimulus rain...

This time of crash came in way way faster than last time, so it also bounces as fast.

Last time, drop 1-3% per day. 3% was already considered big move.
While this time, dropped 7~8% per day.

1 to 2 weeks already dropped more than 20% already.

Chance is pretty low for big crash further.

Shorting at current market is suicide mission... especially in US market.
IDSS is not a problem.
Margin call selling was more pronounced during the crash and often margin call selling sunk the share price way deeper, to get out no matter what price.

Having said that, there are pocket of worrysome issues needs to be watch out.
The extreme low oil price and potential NPL rise for banks.
Watchout highly geared companies as well, yesterday, there was a news at Sg about a big oil trading company facing liquidity issue, when banks reluctant to issue LC as last time.

It is not a total bull market. But a rebound from extreme bottom. It may go flattish or range bound afterwards, as recovery takes sometimes.

Watch the oil price, it provides the ultimate barometer about the world economy and recovery.

Stock selective is the key going forward.

Big crash often due to fear of unknown, currently there is little unknown factor.

1. Pandemic effect - known
2. GDP shrink - known

One big key factor or problem for bear camp, is Fed and stimulus money, those come in trillions. Almost "buy up" half the economy. Fed has unlimited QE + US 2 trillion stimulus. The entire US economy size is about 20+ trillions.

1400-1420 has a gap which was left behind during Mid March, which is now filing in, if read from the candlestick chart, once filled, may see some retracement.
Mind that it is not a super bull charging but a 50% rebound.

Today bull now show sign a bit tiring already.

This. Always practice buy on rumour, sell on news.

Once it becomes a news, most of the time, it is too late.
Late comer won't get the worm, only early bird get the worm.

A lot of time, retailers make this mistake, ended always chasing or buy at high only.

Not related, it is May contract that expiring today.
Whoever bought the May contract at 0 and expired, need to do the settlement, means they need to take up the delivery of crude oil. And those crude oil will be sent to your house....

Why it plunged to 0? Because speculator (likely not those refiners or petrochem companies that can take up delivery and store) in the market need get rid the futures contract to avoid taking the delivery. Market little buyer, as everyone storage is full, then just like force selling in the stock market, threw previous bought contract until zero or once become negative...

June contract is still above USD20+.
Once May contract expired today, you will see the published spot price for WTI will be based on June contract price, which is now USD20

Storage place run out...

Many have been filed up, when the price below USD30, below USD20, below USD10.
Whoever taught below 10, let alone USD1.60 today.

Many tankers at the sea are used to store crude oil, instead of delivery.

It is current hot theme of the market.

Stock market is like that, when it is hot theme, sky is the limit, people don't care the PER or whatever number as long as it can continue to go up.

At current point, gloves or any related to PPE is in high demand, so probably will see quite good result in near term, hence people are chasing it.
Not to mention, gloves companies are beneficiary from USD rising.

At least the fundamental of gloves industry still is the solid one although it seems rich in valuation.
Last time dotcom, or O&G boom time, even worst, some stocks had no PE also can rise several fold...

No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.

But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.

Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.

More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.

When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.

Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.

PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.

Based on most report, the soonest vaccine availability probably would be around early 2021.

Economy takes time to heal, won't be split second turn to normal just because ease of lockdown, as some damage have done.
But bear (particularly US stock market) is drown by flooding of trillions money of Fed and US gov stimulus package.

Manufacturers stocks rise, ok, consumer staples stocks rise, ok
Now, even cruises and tourism related stocks also can rise 10~20% per trading day....

We should look at individual stock right now, not the whole market. As the rise in the future likely to be selective on those strong fundamental and healthy cashflow company.

Those high leveraged company with not too strong cashflow may not able to ride on the recovery fully.

Whenever a crisis unfold, it is another round of selection or ditching process. Good one remains and thrive further. Bad one, being left out.

Tech, 5G likely to be the theme for recovery. As recent lockdown has highlighted further the needs and importance of the information and media tech.

Just an excuse. It is all about "goreng".

Goreng syndicate is using various excuse, from pandemic, PPE, to now O&G price recovery to goreng up the stocks.

With yesterday hype of volume indicated many FOMO joined in which make good for goreng to "release" some.

Harta yesterday result just showed that healthcare equipment although benefit from the pandemic, it is not like hitting gold mines, that should make stocks double, triple or quadruple in valuation in just a few week time.

In fact, when pandemic started or known time, those stocks only rise about 20~30%, (which it should be), but lately, it spills over all over the place due to various kind of excuse used, a good theme to goreng up stocks.

Private hospital and drugs, health supplementary companies business actual suffer from recent MCO and pandemic, but their shares also rise....

1) Average down is always a bad idea, especially for those holding on so called "goreng" stock. It may like digging a bigger hole only.

2) Goreng sentiment is not waiting for those result, goreng is about market sentiment, and how syndicate willing to play along. FOMO on goreng stock should be quick in quick out.
A lot of people made mistake on this, treat goreng stocks as long term holding.

3) This is actually a better strategy, as once the goreng is over, then it is over. It is much better than option 1 average down. You protect your capital, no capital, no chance for next round.
Not every trade must be profit, but you need to protect your capital. Without capital, you are out.

4) No money to settle T+2, it is advisable do not touch at all. Decades ago, T+7 also hard, let alone T+2.

Many US banks survived from 2008 crisis, but some of their shares performance are lacklustre since then or even after 12 years later, and not even close to their previous high or prior 2008 price level.
If a bank lose competitiveness due to crisis, and significant impacted due to poor balance sheet quality, it may not the same.
Also, existing shareholders may be significant diluted due to massive cash call needed.

The scale of impact may be greater than 2008 financial crisis.
2008 financial crisis was about top level financing and liquidity problem, aka liquidity between banks themselves, which was much easier to solve by injecting liquidity from Fed and central banks.
Current crisis is on ground level and SME liquidity issue, which has different impact and road to recovery may take much longer time.

Lower NIM due to slashing interest rate aggressively + no or low loan growth + provision for NPL, may result significant reduce in profitability in near future.

Survival of banks generally is not much an issue as banks are much better capitalised compared to 2008.
But share price may be affected by their profitability and NPL, which may mean dividend in near future won't be as good as last time.

First sign of recovery may come from manufacturing, construction and trading services sector, only then banks would see some uptick in loan growth.
Watch the loan growth figure and NPL, they are the ultimate barometer of banks profitability or bank share level.

Anything you can think of that benefit from the pandemic is the market theme now or even have slight related also can, disregard how well the company can benefit from it.

The market theme is really hot now, fundamental play is thrown out from window.

Casinos business may come back in one day, yes.

But we can't compare with SARS period.
Covid-19 vs Sars, is totally different scale. Sars is less contagious as compared to Covid-19. We don't have lockdown during Sars either. The impact of Covid-19 is unprecedented, even senior people that have lived more than 50 years never see such a lockdown before. I bet nobody have ever seen such a big airfleet parking at airport before.

Another point is that, GenM is not at the same situation with earlier 2000, Its scale of business is more vast and more borrowing as compared last time.

Yesterday Bursa stat

Local Fund - Net bought +121 mil
Retail - Net bought +241 mil
Foreign Fund - Net sold - 365 mil

Normally the fever of retailers is the one sends share price to the roof one.

The market is hot now, any kind of reason or excuse can be used to push up share price.

Gloves and rubber surges are high now, people shifting focus to push another others.
It is like a herd of sheep now, when there is leader or people or syndicate leading a way or specific stocks, all flock in together.

Gloves stock up, at least we know profit is going to be significant better in the coming quarter.

But property?