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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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cherroy
post Apr 19 2019, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Alone @ Apr 19 2019, 09:52 AM)
Hoo..... the sifus here seem pretty resentful with low patience.
In no part of my post did I mention I'm trading penny stocks. I do not know any of the fees that might be incurred because I cannot find much info, other than HK stocks, that is why I'm asking.

Malaysian stocks are too calm for me, since I have traded US stocks before, and I am spoiled for volatility.
So yes, I'm a newbie in Asian market.
I have google searched and failed to to see which indices are top most volatile among the Asian market. There's potential growth companies here, and I am just trying to narrow down to one country. If I do not know where to look for possible brokers, why is it wrong for me to ask for info from more experienced guys here? If I do not know which websites are reputable, is it wrong that I'm asking someone for help? Did I ask you to tell me which stocks to buy? When to buy or when to sell?
There's no need to bare fangs with your assumptions, please.
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Most Asian market is not as volatile as stocks in US, apart from HK (typically warrant stocks).

Personally I find HK market is the one more volatile (I could be wrong though)

Other Asian bourses are relatively smaller, hence volatility is lesser too.
cherroy
post May 8 2019, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(eddie2020 @ May 8 2019, 04:23 PM)
i mean are we able to know before they going to be suspended or delisted soon?
Btw, if company delisted our stock mean will be total lost rite?
Aside from that, wanna ask abit on dividend.
For example

Entitlement Details:
Third Income Distribution of 2.58 sen per unit (of which 2.08 sen per unitis taxable, 0.47 sen per unit is non-taxable and 0.03 sen per unit is taxexempt) for the third quarter ended 31 March 2019.

We will receive 2.58cent per share? Or they will give only 0.5cent(0.47+0.03)?
Abit confused, i am new with this kinda stuff..

Some company declare dividend i didnt see they put these taxable etc, but some have... so i feel confused
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Mostly likely it is a reit dividend.

For normal company dividend, they are all single tier, no tax anymore.

While for reit, witholding tax applied, so they need to differentiate out which portion is taxable and not.

For individual investor, 10% witholding tax applied, so net dividend you will get

2.08 x 0.90 = 1.872 (taxable portion) + 0.50 (non taxable) = 2.372.
cherroy
post Jun 4 2019, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jun 4 2019, 06:19 AM)
how would the US-China trade war affect KLSE?

so news said we are war-trade haven, so it's a good time to invest in KLSE?
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There is no real winner in trade war if escalated into full blown.

Just KLSE may be "spared" a bit, as it is not direct hit.
Still it affects overall market sentiment.

The one "benefit" the most from recession (if) is high graded bond.

Many bond funds are performing quite well with treasuries yield plunging.
cherroy
post Jul 3 2019, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(beng970804 @ Jul 2 2019, 08:44 PM)
So, i am new to stock here. and kinda lazy to follow the stock news, i want to ask is there any broker or agent who can help you to invest in the stock?
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One may be better off by investing in unit trust if wish to have "someone help to invest in stock market".
cherroy
post Jul 29 2019, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Jul 29 2019, 09:56 AM)
Just a thought, is it wise to use another trading account to make some quick profits when the share prices drop?

I have 2 accounts and 1 account is not used. For example, airasia dropped a lot today and there's nothing much I can do besides average down with my main account. On the other hand, i was thinking about using the other account for quick profits. Any thoughts/advise?
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LOL, 2 account 3 account 4 account, money also come from same pocket.

There is no different in your net position, whether you buy from 1st ac or second ac.

cherroy
post Jul 29 2019, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Jul 29 2019, 11:40 AM)
Lol, of course same pocket. What i meant was if i have 5 lots at RM3, i will need to pump quite a lot to average it down based on the latest price (Rm2).

Instead, with a fresh account, i can buy at Rm2 and perhaps sell it off at Rm2.20. Quicker to make small profits, that's all.
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Previously, you had 5 lots at Rm3.
Now buy new fresh batch at Rm2.00 and sell at Rm2.20, you don't make a profit?
Must use fresh account to buy, only consider profit?

This kind of math is beyond my understanding... laugh.gif

Also, you need to take in account of the previous bought Rm3.00, should be adjusted to Rm2.10 due to special dividend ex.

Stock market is about making money only, not about find a way of inventive "syiok sendiri" figure.

Can just treat it a different batch, ABC-batch1 or 2 in excel, if really want to. biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Nov 21 2019, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(Kjk014 @ Nov 21 2019, 10:30 AM)
Want to ask, what is HSI-xxx such as HSI-H8F, HSI-C7J counter etc all means? why their price like roller-coaster, today drop so much tmrw rise so high???
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Those are put warrant and call warrant.
-Hxx - Put warrant
- Cxx -call warrant

It is high risk or high leveraged "bet", if don't know how it works, then better don't touch.
Highly leveraged or highly geared, the more volatility of the price.

You need to know their conversion and exercise price and maturity date to deliver their valuation.


cherroy
post Nov 26 2019, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Kjk014 @ Nov 22 2019, 11:50 AM)
What would happen if hold until it's expiry date??
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You can lose 100% if the warrant is out of money.
cherroy
post Jan 6 2020, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(~Curious~ @ Jan 6 2020, 10:38 AM)
lol..i second that..still need to do our own analysis..

btw sifuu2s here,how to sort of screen out the stocks to buy?as a preliminary list b4 diving into the PE,PB stuff..
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My personal view,
PB figure is one of "weakest" indicator, and nowadays market doesn't emphasis too much on book value issue.

Market cares more about company on going forwards profitability and dividend yield.
Book value is something only good of viewing only.

Also, book value can be wiped off instantly, if a particular company business is out of favour or drastic changing business environment/industry.

Nowadays, we needs to look at specific company with specific purpose, generating a list of low PB, PE and think those at top list one good for investing, is a dangerous method and can easily fall into so called PE and PB trap.

cherroy
post Jan 6 2020, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(privatequity @ Jan 6 2020, 04:38 PM)
Hi Cherroy,

May I know is there any stocks are on your radar now?
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Not in position or suitable for me to recommend any specific stock

Generally, those large cap with good dividend yield and with stable outlook are my watch list.

cherroy
post Jan 29 2020, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jan 28 2020, 07:43 PM)
Apart from the hype on equipment manufacturer like TopGloves/Hartalega/Supermax, what about those that own medical centres like KPJ Healthcare and Sunway(medical centre) ? Though sunway’s main profit aint from healthcare
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I see, it is more a hype and market sentiment.

Hospital business should be as usual.

How can private hospital profitability sky rocket due to virus, (that may result share price sky rocketing) is beyond my understanding.

Healthcare equipment, gloves mask manufacturers, pharmaceutical related, yes, as business will be good. Hospital?
cherroy
post Feb 24 2020, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 24 2020, 10:07 AM)
Me too i just overweight bursa, due to low valuation as compare to other index. But then this happen, how low can Bursa go i wonder. Buy the dip or cut loss
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There are value emerged especially when panic selling.
cherroy
post Feb 26 2020, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 26 2020, 12:28 AM)
but bonds ETF are different from bonds right? For bonds, you capital is guaranteed at the end; but for ETF, no such capital guarantee?
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Incorrect.
Bond capital is never guaranteed. Bond is subjected to default risk especially those junk bond.
In fact, one can lose money in bond if it is defaulted.

Bond ETF is similar to bond fund or bond unit trust except it is traded in open market, just like any other ETF.
cherroy
post Feb 26 2020, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 26 2020, 04:07 PM)
since we are expecting a recession as the nCOV gets worse, which currency is likely to appreciate based on past experience?
I feel like every country other than US looks gloomy.
ah, yes. I mean, you get your original capital at the end of the maturity if the company/country doesn't go burst.  sweat.gif
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USD, Yen are always considered safe heaven in economy trouble time.

Mind that, you can lose money in bond even hold until maturity.
JP Gov bond and German Bund are trading at negative yield... laugh.gif

Many bonds are traded above its face value, that's why we see some bonds although give 5% based on its face value each year, but yield to maturity is 2~3% only.

Nowadays, needs to be selective to pick up good stocks. Broad based or market may be gloomy, but there are pocket of opportunity, and certain stocks are still performing relatively ok.

If we look the other way round, without doom and gloomy perception by many, you won't have stocks selling at cheap price.

cherroy
post Mar 7 2020, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 7 2020, 10:22 AM)
Dividend around 3%. It may seem low but no point chasing high dividend stocks because the share price fall quicker resulting in capital loss.
If want high yield, Maybank is ok too but beware as banks can go bankrupt overnight.
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Sustainable high dividend stocks generally will make a comeback when sky is clear.

Yes, buying now, may suffer in capital loss due to general overall market in down trend.
But at the same times, we can't know when or what price is the bottom.

With interest rate slashing across the world now, treasuries merely 0.7%, good and high dividend stocks become attractive to investors, and is one of the reason why some reit are making new high at this environment.

Banks won't easily go bankrupt overnight compared to prior before 2008 financial crisis.
Since the financial crisis, there are a lot of changes have been made on banking system, especially the requirement for banks to be well capitalised under Basel requirement.
Tier 1, Tier 2 capital basically tell tale of the banks situation.

It is potential fall in earnings that make banks stocks price sliding across recently, as interest cut and low loan growth generally put pressure on banks earning for short to medium term.

Only high leveraged corporate that lack of cash that can bankrupt overnight.
Look at cashflow and cash position of the listed company is essential to evaluate the risk currently.
cherroy
post Mar 14 2020, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Mar 14 2020, 02:52 PM)
I'm planning to buy PCHEM due to its all time low price and basically a giant in its field. Recovery is imminent at some point.

Any thoughts?
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QUOTE(zstan @ Mar 14 2020, 04:43 PM)
don't understand why people still dare to touch o&g counters  rclxub.gif
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Pchem is not a direct O&G player, it is not drilling oil or selling crude oil.

Pchem is a petro chemical company that makes chemical and polymeric product or laymen term plastic product from crude oil that are essential to many industrial, from automotives to plantation like urea/ammonia.

If crude oil becomes too cheap, it means its raw material cost become cheaper as well, and when if petrochem product is in high demanded due to economy recovery or stimulus, then the situation become positive towards the company profitability.

Normally petrochem product price is highly corelated to crude oil, but profit margin can swing due to disparity of magnitude of rise or drop in price between crude oil and petrochem products.

If worldwide economy activities becomes normalise and grow again, petchem can be a choice of recovery theme play.

O&G mostly needs to avoid are those highly debt companies, which depend heavily on contracts given by upstream oil player from time to time, whereby revenue is heavily relied on Capex of upstream player.

Not every O&G company is the same.
Some O&G may benefit from the extreme low crude price, 2-3 years ago, refiners benefited a lot of from extreme low crude oil price, whereby we see refiners stocks sky rocketed 2 or 3 fold as their profit sky-rocketed during that period.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 14 2020, 05:24 PM
cherroy
post Mar 14 2020, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 14 2020, 05:16 PM)
I think it's a good investment.
No comment. PCHEM should be producing petrochemicals. It's direct competitor should be LCTITAN which is also not doing well.
Do note that the demand for certain petrochemical might continue to drop as people switch to zero plastic waste.
Malaysia has already charged RM0.20 for plastic bags, eateries using paper bags etc..
Yeah O&G is pretty much sunset industry. There is abundant oil on Earth.
Just that supply is restricted to a few countries/people just like diamonds.
It's just like the media wants to keep promoting that there is limited land on Earth, so you should buy properties today.

In the long run, I believe many O&G players will either exit or consolidate.
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Petrochemical is not limited to ordinary daily plastic we use, a lot of manufacturing activities need petrochem product, from solution, gluing, grease, lubricant oil to synthetic rubber that used for gloves etc.

Making plastic straw or carrying plastic beg in supermarket is a sunset business, yes, but O&G is not a sunset business, O&G may consolidate, but not obsolete.

Profit margin of business may not as good due to various reason, more competitors etc, or even some non-efficient plant run at loss, this may happen, but at the same times, petrochem industry is an essential part of modern life-style already.

There is simply too long a list of product in our daily life which cannot escape from petro chem products.
We may not want to use a plastic spoon, but we still wear cloth made from polyester, use non-sticky cooking pan which is also made of polymeric materials.
It is everywhere, just we do not notice, it comes from crude oil or petro chemical.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 14 2020, 06:10 PM
cherroy
post Mar 16 2020, 11:42 AM

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The more people pessimistic, no hope syndrome, then bottom is not too far away.

Virus won't stay forever. Vaccine will come out if the virus pandemic is prolonged.

So need to ride the storm for awhile.
cherroy
post Mar 17 2020, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(Moneylust @ Mar 16 2020, 07:28 PM)
How do you guys deal with the stock and horror of having a significant part of your net worth destroyed?  The recent years have been difficult.
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Just get use to it. LOL

This is the 4th big plunge I experienced
And this round is really quick compared to previous few times.

Good time, always think of risk.
Bad time, always think of potential opportunity.

We have been posting potential the jinx of 10 years cycle, which was not happening, now we only know it is delay. 1986,1998, 2008, now 2020.
As we mentioned before, crisis often happened totally out of our expectation. Prior before, we see everything is rosy, same with prior before 2007, 1997.

Pick a good stock is the key going forwards, as history again and again show those goods stocks eventually likely to recover or even higher than before.

And that's why I keep on reiterated the importance of dividend. Those dividend paid are in your pocket already.

cherroy
post Mar 17 2020, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Mar 17 2020, 02:45 PM)
any kind advice on what stock to pick during this big sale?
no worries, i buy at my own risk and my own consequences. Will see see first  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
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Look at cashflow.
Cashflow is the bloodline of the company during crisis.

Those still able to pay dividend during bad time generally are more resilient and able to strike a come back quick.

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