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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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cherroy
post Mar 18 2020, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Mar 18 2020, 06:12 AM)
R we near the lowest for the current pandemic now or just the beginning when it will fall further
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Nobody knows when it can be contained.
If worldwide travel ban or lockdown successful contains the virus, then low point may be reached or not too far away.
But if the pandemic become more serious lead to prolong recession, then it may fall further.

Having said that, it shouldn't be more than a year or a year plus, as vaccine may be available by that time.

cherroy
post Mar 19 2020, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(quintesson @ Mar 19 2020, 12:49 PM)
sifus normally when buying any stock which are the important criterias to study before commit? a lot of stocks fell to an all time low thinking of picking 1 or 2 to keep maybe 1 or 2 years and hoping for 1 or 2x return compare to theirs usual price.
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At the moment, you don't think of a stock drop to all time low or not.
The lowest record keeps on being washed away next day.

The main criteria is the company can survive through this storm or not.
Look at company cashflow, whether it has ample cashflow ability to withstand at least 3 to 6 months with deteoriate economy condition.


cherroy
post Mar 19 2020, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Mar 19 2020, 02:57 PM)
Any interesting companies on your watchlist ? I am eyeing those semi stocks, Inari, Frontken

Oil and gas like Serba as well
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Personally, don't think O&G is the first to recover, as O&G is facing output issue + economy recession.

I prefer consumer stocks, as it faced only 1 problem aka economy recession, as compared to O&G 2 problems as above.

With massive stimulus package across the globe on the pipeline, those money is targeted to be spent by consumer on consumerable items.

cherroy
post Mar 19 2020, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 19 2020, 04:22 PM)
thinking of investing in the consumer staples ETF recommended by Buffett, but since US' crisis is not at the peak yet, that means there's more to drop? hmm.gif
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Likely more to drop, with current sentiment.

Adopt DCA and interval purchase should be the strategy.
Purchase in one shot or two is highly not recommended in current market, as we never know the bottom until it is too late.

If missing out the bottom due to DCA and interval purchase strategy, also never mind, as less profit is always better than loss.

cherroy
post Mar 20 2020, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 19 2020, 06:31 PM)
So today I bought Mah Sing at 0.33.

Tbh I wasn't planning to buy so soon, but can't resist the cheap offer.

At 33 sen share price, Mah Sing market cap is RM800 million. This is less than its bank balance of RM1 billion. Meaning I'm buying the cash and getting all its landbank n development projects for free. So there is a big margin of safety.

Also it has proposed to pay out 3.35 sen dividend this September for a yield of 10%.
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This phenomena is everywhere now, not limited to mentioned stock.

But needs to take consider of payable and liabilities and those cash is needed to pay those. So need to count the net cash position, instead of pure bank balance.
Also, perpetual securities may also needs to be taken into consideration.
cherroy
post Mar 24 2020, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(HolyAssasin4444 @ Mar 24 2020, 01:06 AM)
Has anyone looked into Allianz Malaysia? 1163
Their PE looks tempting with PB quite close to 1
And balance sheet strong as fuk got 1.6B cash to weather the storm
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You need to take into account of it has Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares int consideration.
And with financial market tumbling across, there is a risk of need of write off in term of fair value losses on its investment side in their future Q earning report.
Investment income may also suffer some dip.

PE or whatever data in the past is no longer suitable to be used when economy takes a big turn.

Having said that, it is really a solid stock, being following quite long since it was Rm7~8.
cherroy
post Mar 24 2020, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Mar 24 2020, 01:11 PM)
some analysts say we are in the pre-crash, real one soon.
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Always like that...

Up time, 2000 can be achieved or target for the year.
Down time 800 can be achieved.
cherroy
post Mar 24 2020, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(solstice818 @ Mar 24 2020, 03:21 PM)
Until the bill is passed, there is still so much to drop.
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It is just matter when only.


cherroy
post Mar 27 2020, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 27 2020, 01:44 PM)
I don't track biotech stock too much. But for semicon / tech, if there are more positive earning calls from the big one such as AMD, Intels, Nvidia, Microsoft, Cisco, Broadcom, Apple the smaller the window of opportunity will become.

You can hope that Micron is just an exceptional one and the rest reported bad news, that would break the market confidence and we could test new low.

Else currently all data is pointing to higher data center consumption, higher cloud services, higher gaming device purchases, higher mobile / youtube engagement, higher tech peripherals usage during a world on lockdown and work from home movement.
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Data centre related stocks. bruce.gif

I guess 5G related may be next bull theme after situation normalises.
cherroy
post Mar 31 2020, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Mar 30 2020, 10:34 AM)
Logically should be down la lol.
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USD 2 trillion + unlimited QE money will be running around the financial market, looking something to buy.

How can the logic should be down?

cherroy
post Mar 31 2020, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Mar 31 2020, 10:22 AM)
Is there no side effect of this unlimited money? Otherwise they can keep the market forever up just doing this same trick
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For current moment, side effect is stock market up.... laugh.gif

This QE trick has been there since 2008 crisis and it works for the last 10 years or so.

It depends Fed maneuver in between. Right amount right moment, then side effect is minimised, while stablise the financial market.

cherroy
post Mar 31 2020, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Mar 31 2020, 04:56 PM)
US premarket looking ok for now....if it goes red then probably tomorrow klse high probablility will be red too
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US market sentiment is quite bullish over the last few trading section, and pretty stable over the trading session.

Seems like DJ has found the bottom at 19K level.

The 2 trillion and unlimited QE have done its magic.
cherroy
post Apr 2 2020, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 2 2020, 02:51 PM)
KLCI sometimes follow DJI sometimes follow futures  dry.gif
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Nowadays, Asian bourses generally follows real time futures market, instead of DJ overnight up or down.
cherroy
post Apr 2 2020, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Apr 2 2020, 03:34 PM)
Already known by market that almost all companies' profitability will be affected across, except a few niche one and medical related companies.

As said, the most fear by stock market is unknown and unpredictable issues, not something already known or expected.

Already known or expected - mostly is price into the share price already.

How share price moving forwards is about how future unfolding in the next few months, not about something already happened or is happening right now.
cherroy
post Apr 7 2020, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Apr 6 2020, 07:44 PM)
what r the type of stock that go chapter 11 and whT type go higher? or is it random?
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It is not random.

Strong company with strong cashflow will survive through the storm, and able to recover.

Poor fundamental and poor cashflow company may fall during crisis and never recover.

That's why it is important to selective in stock investment.

Whenever there is a crisis, it is a process ditching the poor and remain the better one.

Want to make money in stock market, then need to select the better one. As even bought the better one at higher price, it is likelyhood it may recover one day when situation back to normal.

cherroy
post Apr 7 2020, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Apr 7 2020, 03:05 PM)
Did I just missed the boat??

or

is it a titanic heading straight into an iceberg
crashing head on with full passengers and cargo.

Just cannot comprehend,
some companies not even operation during this time, burning money
but they are going up like nothing happened.
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Stock market is forward looking mechanism.

It doesn't look what had happened or is happening.
It is looking 3 to 6 month ahead issue.

When data of pandemic show sign of relief, then a big selldown market previously is having a strong rebound.
But still need to beware those company that may not able to cope or may have trouble due to cashflow to sail through this storm.

While if pandemic issue become unexpected or worsen then the market may tumble back down.
So it is always looking forward mechanism.

The pandemic may cause lot of trouble to economy, but it won't last forever.
While currently, the 2 trillion USD and unlimited QE are doing its work in the market.


cherroy
post Apr 13 2020, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(wueytshuan @ Apr 13 2020, 03:52 PM)
Hello sifu2 sekalian,

May I know why everytime i placed a market order, it will shows trading exceeded limit.

For e.g. I was trying to purchase a stock which is worth 500 lots = RM500 during trading hours. It was rejected eventhough i have few k left stated on trading limit.

Pleasee helpppP! Thank you very muchiee!
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Please check your broker firm trading limit.

I knew some impose a default limit of max 500 lots per order for retailers. While some may differ.
or
price keyed in is out of trading limit.

There are many reasons why an order is rejected, typically to prevent fat finger mistake.
cherroy
post Apr 14 2020, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Apr 13 2020, 10:31 PM)
Yes, price per share. Ohh...didn't know there's upper and lower limit set by bursa. Do you know whether this is only peculiar to Malaysia market? Any idea about Singapore? I know for USA last time, there was no such thing
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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Apr 14 2020, 08:48 AM)
Upper and lower adjusted weekly or daily I think. Can Google and check. Other markets don't know. Reason is to prevent manipulation and some sort of circuit breaker mechanism
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Currently, KLSE adopts 30% upper and lower limit based on opening price for the day. Those below RM1.00, 30 cents is the range.

Sgx adopts circuit breaker method based on 10% range, a 5 mins cooling off period is triggered if it hit the limit. Price may continue to up and down further afterwards, as compared KLSE no further up or down after hitting 30% for the day.




cherroy
post Apr 15 2020, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(Pain4UrsinZ @ Apr 15 2020, 12:40 PM)
activated, just informed remisier to set buy limit, only valid for 3 days. seems like very hassle.

some more the data delay 15 - 20 mins, how you guys actually ask or bid ? if i go back to ETORO very simple and fast but charges way too high.
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Using other platform, not facing the hassle of limit as mentioned.

Yes, for "free service", mostly broker only offer 15 min delay data, if want to have realtime, normally need to subscribe at a fee.
Data may be delay, but order is submitted in real time and being matched real time.
So, personally, for those foreign stocks, already have set a price willing to buy and key in to match or Q, Matches or not is realtime though.

Sometimes, look at other free official platform with delay 2-3 mins one, and then key in the order, depended on which bourses.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 15 2020, 03:40 PM
cherroy
post Apr 16 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(frostfrench @ Apr 16 2020, 02:39 PM)
whats the percentage of probability of happening a 19th March dive again?
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The % is quite low if there is no extra-ordinary news or event occuring.

The Covid issue is more and less baked into the market already.

Market fear the most of uncertainty and unknown, typically early March, total in dark, how Covid issue would be unfolding, and unknown how various gov will react, and unknown how impact the economy.

Once the massive stimulus injected with more and less Covid issue being known, market rebound from the bottom, likely flattish for sometimes.

Once market has better clear picture, normally it calms down.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 16 2020, 02:56 PM

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