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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jan 4 2022, 09:50 AM)
depreciation, non-cash, etc

but recent ipos are quite power

look at atech
xdak read  whistling.gif

just recalled some conversations with my friends whom some are very dedicated on

gurus

i was being sarcastic

laugh.gif

i stated here right, it's always me vs the market

hence all the others are mere opinions which seldom affect my own findings

but of course

genuine advice aka coconuts is always welcomed

ada coconuts falling mah?  brows.gif
*
You need to find the coconut tree for coconuts la.

Let me search Waze.

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whistling.gif
Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 4 2022, 10:06 AM)
Hmm, I'd take a look at the Asset & Liabilities section for the past 3 years.
*
No comment on Genetec? smile.gif
statikinetic
post Jan 4 2022, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2022, 10:33 AM)
No comment on Genetec? smile.gif
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Genetec? Not my taste, not my game.

Senheng, maybe. But really should scrutinize the numbers. Companies tend to dress up the figures real nice before an IPO and I would be looking at the debt levels in the past 3 years to see if there are any pre-IPO inflation. Debt by itself is only an indicator, much more important is what that infusion of cash before an IPO is going to bring. As opposed to a nice cushy chair for current owners and another payday when the IPO takes off.
IPOs right now are a mixed bag compared to an almost sure win a year or two ago.
Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 4 2022, 11:13 AM)
Genetec? Not my taste, not my game.

Senheng, maybe. But really should scrutinize the numbers. Companies tend to dress up the figures real nice before an IPO and I would be looking at the debt levels in the past 3 years to see if there are any pre-IPO inflation. Debt by itself is only an indicator, much more important is what that infusion of cash before an IPO is going to bring. As opposed to a nice cushy chair for current owners and another payday when the IPO takes off.
IPOs right now are a mixed bag compared to an almost sure win a year or two ago.
*
Sengheng not my game either. I found it a waste of time looking at these ipo numbers. wink.gif

Big names don't necessarily make good stocks either.

Genetec is important hor... for those others who kept on bitching on SD saying why no warning. Well, here is the warning flag which will turn bigger if the receivables keeps on rocketing. A business without collection???
statikinetic
post Jan 4 2022, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2022, 11:20 AM)
Sengheng not my game either. I found it a waste of time looking at these ipo numbers. wink.gif

Big names don't necessarily make good stocks either.

Genetec is important hor... for those others who kept on bitching on SD saying why no warning. Well, here is the warning flag which will turn bigger if the receivables keeps on rocketing. A business without collection???
*
I highlighted the area which I think you are spot on.
Ballooning receivables is possible creative accounting to show sales when there is no money received for it. If a tree falls in a forest and nobody is around to hear the fall, did it really fall? If high revenue is made but no cash received for it, did the sale really take place? Of course, this may be perfectly legitimate and part of the business model or sign of the times but it is still a symptom. Unfortunately, investing is not an exact science. We cannot say seeing A means B will happen. It is all about symptoms what what risks you see associated with them.

And we know most people don't ask questions when the share price is travelling upwards. It only happens in the reverse direction.
Best case scenario, their customers will definitely pay but are going through a lean spell. Worst case scenario, I think everyone knows.

Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 4 2022, 11:33 AM)
I highlighted the area which I think you are spot on.
Ballooning receivables is possible creative accounting to show sales when there is no money received for it. If a tree falls in a forest and nobody is around to hear the fall, did it really fall? If high revenue is made but no cash received for it, did the sale really take place? Of course, this may be perfectly legitimate and part of the business model or sign of the times but it is still a symptom. Unfortunately, investing is not an exact science. We cannot say seeing A means B will happen. It is all about symptoms what what risks you see associated with them.

And we know most people don't ask questions when the share price is travelling upwards. It only happens in the reverse direction.
Best case scenario, their customers will definitely pay but are going through a lean spell. Worst case scenario, I think everyone knows.
*
Well exactly. Not saying it's a fraud but it's a big flag. One of the reason given that the stock is rocketing to thd moon is the incredible sales/profit turnaround for the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year... however when we see the books, all we see is the receivables increasing by the same amount of the sales growth in this boom time. No collection for this 2 quarters? Very worrying since this is a manufacturing company. Are they exporting without payment being received?


hiyyl
post Jan 4 2022, 12:00 PM

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On those ballooning receivables, i believe we will able to get the answer from next quarter results. IMO for now is still too early to guess.
Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 4 2022, 11:33 AM)
I highlighted the area which I think you are spot on.
Ballooning receivables is possible creative accounting to show sales when there is no money received for it. If a tree falls in a forest and nobody is around to hear the fall, did it really fall? If high revenue is made but no cash received for it, did the sale really take place? Of course, this may be perfectly legitimate and part of the business model or sign of the times but it is still a symptom. Unfortunately, investing is not an exact science. We cannot say seeing A means B will happen. It is all about symptoms what what risks you see associated with them.

And we know most people don't ask questions when the share price is travelling upwards. It only happens in the reverse direction.
Best case scenario, their customers will definitely pay but are going through a lean spell. Worst case scenario, I think everyone knows.
*
p/s the cash flow screenshot shared by billy.... says a lot too... sweat.gif

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Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(hiyyl @ Jan 4 2022, 12:00 PM)
On those ballooning receivables, i believe we will able to get the answer from next quarter results. IMO for now is still too early to guess.
*
Yes, we will get a more clearer answer come next quarter but here's why this is a MASSIVE concern right now.....

1. The stock was below 2.00 early last year. Today it's only > 40.00. The ultra small number of shares in this stock made it easier to rocket.

So this stock has basically gone up heck a lot.


2. There was a placement of shares worth 17 million, priced around 3.xx ... and there was a bunch of ESOS exercised under 1.40. So there are a bunch of big players holding the stock with ultra cheap prices. If anything go wrong (like stock correct 20% or more), they can dispose without any remorse and they will still make tons of money. ​

So if one is late into this party, best one understand where one stand.... and with a 12 for 1 bonus issue... big players have every single reason to take profit.....


3. Despite the booming profits, we have already seen 2 quarters of booming profits with receivables ballooning and cash flow negative (yup despite a 17 million placement of shares and increase of debts). Wait another quarter? Should one take such a risk for confirmation?


4. Profits soared because of the EV sector. So said Genetec itself. In such a sector, why is the receivables ballooning for 2 quarters already? personally I cannot fathom why. It's a manufacturer? Unheard of a manufacturer to supply goods with such long credit days.... wink.gif



That's my thoughts... and if I have the stock, I would take the 'be safe rather than be sorry' approach anytime... not worth the risk waiting for another quarter of confirmation... but yeah, these are all my random thoughts... which I could be wrong of course.

now if I don't have the stock... I definitely will not touch it. icon_rolleyes.gif
billy_overheat
post Jan 4 2022, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(hiyyl @ Jan 4 2022, 12:00 PM)
On those ballooning receivables, i believe we will able to get the answer from next quarter results. IMO for now is still too early to guess.
*
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2022, 12:25 PM)
p/s the cash flow screenshot shared by billy.... says a lot too...  sweat.gif

user posted image
*
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2022, 12:49 PM)
Yes, we will get a more clearer answer come next quarter but here's why this is a MASSIVE concern right now.....

1. The stock was below 2.00 early last year. Today it's only > 40.00. The ultra small number of shares in this stock made it easier to rocket.

So this stock has basically gone up heck a lot.
2. There was a placement of shares worth 17 million, priced around 3.xx ... and there was a bunch of ESOS exercised under 1.40. So there are a bunch of big players holding the stock with ultra cheap prices. If anything go wrong (like stock correct 20% or more), they can dispose without any remorse and they will still make tons of money. ​

So if one is late into this party, best one understand where one stand.... and with a 12 for 1 bonus issue... big players have every single reason to take profit.....
3. Despite the booming profits, we have already seen 2 quarters of booming profits with receivables ballooning and cash flow negative (yup despite a 17 million placement of shares and increase of debts). Wait another quarter? Should one take such a risk for confirmation?
4. Profits soared because of the EV sector. So said Genetec itself. In such a sector, why is the receivables ballooning for 2 quarters already? personally I cannot fathom why. It's a manufacturer? Unheard of a manufacturer to supply goods with such long credit days.... wink.gif
That's my thoughts... and if I have the stock, I would take the 'be safe rather than be sorry' approach anytime... not worth the risk waiting for another quarter of confirmation... but yeah, these are all my random thoughts... which I could be wrong of course.

now if I don't have the stock... I definitely will not touch it.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
and during this day when qtr was released, major action happened and it's still very sus for me

whistling.gif

user posted image

but we do see some reversal

BEFORE bonus

so

yeah

laugh.gif

makan popcorn tengok wayang minum coconot

but why sri lanka coconot hill ranting.gif
Cubalagi
post Jan 4 2022, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2022, 12:49 PM)
Yes, we will get a more clearer answer come next quarter but here's why this is a MASSIVE concern right now.....

1. The stock was below 2.00 early last year. Today it's only > 40.00. The ultra small number of shares in this stock made it easier to rocket.

So this stock has basically gone up heck a lot.
2. There was a placement of shares worth 17 million, priced around 3.xx ... and there was a bunch of ESOS exercised under 1.40. So there are a bunch of big players holding the stock with ultra cheap prices. If anything go wrong (like stock correct 20% or more), they can dispose without any remorse and they will still make tons of money. ​

So if one is late into this party, best one understand where one stand.... and with a 12 for 1 bonus issue... big players have every single reason to take profit.....
3. Despite the booming profits, we have already seen 2 quarters of booming profits with receivables ballooning and cash flow negative (yup despite a 17 million placement of shares and increase of debts). Wait another quarter? Should one take such a risk for confirmation?
4. Profits soared because of the EV sector. So said Genetec itself. In such a sector, why is the receivables ballooning for 2 quarters already? personally I cannot fathom why. It's a manufacturer? Unheard of a manufacturer to supply goods with such long credit days.... wink.gif
That's my thoughts... and if I have the stock, I would take the 'be safe rather than be sorry' approach anytime... not worth the risk waiting for another quarter of confirmation... but yeah, these are all my random thoughts... which I could be wrong of course.

now if I don't have the stock... I definitely will not touch it.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
KPMG is their auditor, surely KPMG will highlight if there are any concerns.. 😂



Boon3
post Jan 4 2022, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 4 2022, 01:23 PM)
KPMG is their auditor, surely KPMG will highlight if there are any concerns.. 😂
*
And with Bursa being the stock exchange, I guess there's no concerns for you eh? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif tongue.gif
billy_overheat
post Jan 5 2022, 11:59 AM

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no worries guys

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zstan
post Jan 5 2022, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 4 2022, 01:23 PM)
KPMG is their auditor, surely KPMG will highlight if there are any concerns.. 😂
*
Later they sue KPMG and change auditor how?
Boon3
post Jan 5 2022, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jan 5 2022, 11:59 AM)
no worries guys

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huh???

and this is taken from whose QR?
Boon3
post Jan 5 2022, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Jan 5 2022, 12:52 PM)
Later they sue KPMG and change auditor how?
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laugh.gif he was cuba-ing being funny.... tongue.gif
statikinetic
post Jan 5 2022, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jan 5 2022, 11:59 AM)
no worries guys

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Incomplete statutory audit.
Is this from Serba?
billy_overheat
post Jan 5 2022, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 5 2022, 01:23 PM)
huh???

and this is taken from whose QR?
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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 5 2022, 02:53 PM)
Incomplete statutory audit.
Is this from Serba?
*
haha yup

btw

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...alibaba-holding

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statikinetic
post Jan 5 2022, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jan 5 2022, 03:08 PM)
Charlie is known to be bullish on China so the news is of no surprise.
One of the few folks in the investing world that I hold in high regard.

billy_overheat
post Jan 5 2022, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 5 2022, 03:12 PM)
Charlie is known to be bullish on China so the news is of no surprise.
One of the few folks in the investing world that I hold in high regard.
*
ya, he's been buying quite a lot since the drawdown.

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