QUOTE(ben3003 @ Dec 28 2020, 05:21 PM)
bro, on this warrant thingy, so it will affect the share price if it expires? based on my understanding, the call warrant if it does not reach the exercise price then it will considered worthless after expiry. So meaning to say whoever issue the warrant will not want the warrant to go above the exercise price, then the price of warrant is pegged to the mother share? so after these warrant expire the share price will potentially go up ka?
QUOTE(skty @ Dec 18 2020, 10:50 AM)
you have to check whether the CW is ITM or OTM and check how much is sold.
if it's OTM or 0% sold (which can mean also the market maker fully buy back the CW), you can just ignore the CW impact.
if it's ITM and high percentage sold to public, then the market maker need to sell the mother share that they bought as hedging when they sell the CW for cash settlement on the expiry date.
since the cash settlement is calculated based on the 5 days average prior expiry date, ask yourself, if you are the market maker, would you sell your mother share before the 5 days average, or you rather sell within the 5 days average so you can also enjoy the "side effect" of mother share price being reduced?
you can get the answer if you do some logic thinking. If you have some friends working in IB, you can ask them to verify this logic.

I quote my earlier post FYI.
ITM warrant will cause losses to the market maker if they have not hedge enough.
Some market maker will not fully hedge it with mother share as they are confident and want to make more money.
So unless you got actual insider info, all are guessing based on experience, knowledge, available info.
In short term, price can go up or not is depends whether big funds have finish collecting. This is called the smart money.
Whereas for warrant expiry, there will be less selling pressure of the mother share from those market maker after it expire.
If you are doing value investing, you can ignore all these.
If you are trading, be aware of those factors and position yourself accordingly.