QUOTE(Holiao909 @ Dec 14 2017, 06:06 PM)
Always interesting to hear your opinion on Hengyuan.
I think fundamentally, Petron should have a higher PE since its retail component sort of dampens the cyclic and somewhat volatile nature in the refinery business. But now that you mentioned it, on Hengyuan, despite its (already high) price, it still have potential to grow? Since its still trading in a significantly lower PE than Petron. Anyway, i assume you're holding on HRC, do you mind to share your price target?
On a second note, just purely for discussing. Have you got a chance to look at Serba Dinamik? I think looking at mid-term, it has strong earning visibility with many projects at hand. Fundamentally, still trading at a somewhat modest PE, maybe because it has not been able to show a consistent record of profits and growth.
I think, looking at the larger picture, the current oil price sort of benefit Serba Dinamik - O & M business. Since the current oil price does not encourage further exploration and development of new fields - operators tend to squeeze more out of their mature fields - which in turn tend to require more maintenance and workaround - fits nicely for Serba.
Yes, Petron deserved high PE rating due to it is at net cash position (no debt), and its retail business providing cushion on volatile earning of refining business, while HY still has debt to clear.
That's a reason why HY price is lagging compared to Petron.
HY -
1. 500~700 mil needs to be spent on upgrading process and downtime for upgrading may result a poor 2018 result overall. So it may not in position to give dividend as compared to Petron at least for near term.
Also in distant future Euro5 may be needed as well, so another upgrading spending may need in a more long term future.
2. After major upgrading, potential higher depreciation that drag down current profit figure.
3. It may need to pay tax soon, after clear up the tax loss accumulated on previous year. As current EPS number is without tax.
4. Crack spread may not stay at elevated forever.
Personally I would say there is still a little more room for upside until 2017 Q1 to Q2, whereby we may able to still good EPS number. By then, Rm16~18 should be fully valued.
PS: vested interest, view may be bias.
O&G -
I also received recommendation on Serba by IB/remiser, but I am not familiar with this stock.
May look it, not familiar, no comment.
I am more interested in Armada and Yinson, I preferred FPSO, has more visibly earning once the contract is secured as compared to contract works, that can be hard to predict.