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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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infested_ysy
post Apr 27 2020, 11:04 PM

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Guys, is this a legitimate short term stock flipping strategy?

I can see what stocks are trending in real time in rakutentrade, does it make sense if I monitor it to see which one's rapidly trading at high volumes and going up in price, buy some of those shares, then quickly resell it back for slightly higher than what I bought?

I saw MSM in the top 10 active traded stocks 2 weeks ago, I felt a little kiasu and bought some myself at 50 cents, but later read from i3 that it might be purely speculation from big buyers due to no news coming from MSM that might cause a spike. I got a little spooked and sold all my shares the next money for 60 cents and people bought it off quickly.

It was my first time doing something like that and I wonder if this is a legit strategy. My original plan was to invest in mostly dividend and REIT stocks, but after making 600+ by just flipping stocks overnight, I think I'd rather do that.
Lazyguy1337
post Apr 28 2020, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(infested_ysy @ Apr 27 2020, 11:04 PM)
Guys, is this a legitimate short term stock flipping strategy?

I can see what stocks are trending in real time in rakutentrade, does it make sense if I monitor it to see which one's rapidly trading at high volumes and going up in price, buy some of those shares, then quickly resell it back for slightly higher than what I bought?

I saw MSM in the top 10 active traded stocks 2 weeks ago, I felt a little kiasu and bought some myself at 50 cents, but later read from i3 that it might be purely speculation from big buyers due to no news coming from MSM that might cause a spike. I got a little spooked and sold all my shares the next money for 60 cents and people bought it off quickly.

It was my first time doing something like that and I wonder if this is a legit strategy. My original plan was to invest in mostly dividend and REIT stocks, but after making 600+ by just flipping stocks overnight, I think I'd rather do that.
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Day traders/ swing traders have been doing it for years. As long as there's volatility in the market you can make/ lose money quickly. No harm learning. I made 60% yesterday too
Bendan[520]
post Apr 28 2020, 01:42 PM

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Short selling extended till 30 june boys..
kkk8787
post Apr 28 2020, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 28 2020, 01:42 PM)
Short selling extended till 30 june boys..
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Wow. Just when I tot I can go in for a kill damn it
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 02:19 PM

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It is kinda crazy to see the PER people are paying for their overpriced gloves stock.
cherroy
post Apr 28 2020, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 02:19 PM)
It is kinda crazy to see the PER people are paying for their overpriced gloves stock.
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It is current hot theme of the market.

Stock market is like that, when it is hot theme, sky is the limit, people don't care the PER or whatever number as long as it can continue to go up.

At current point, gloves or any related to PPE is in high demand, so probably will see quite good result in near term, hence people are chasing it.
Not to mention, gloves companies are beneficiary from USD rising.

At least the fundamental of gloves industry still is the solid one although it seems rich in valuation.
Last time dotcom, or O&G boom time, even worst, some stocks had no PE also can rise several fold... laugh.gif




zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 02:19 PM)
It is kinda crazy to see the PER people are paying for their overpriced gloves stock.
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waiting for short selling to be back and hope for a price drop but looks like it won't happen lol
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 28 2020, 02:39 PM)
waiting for short selling to be back and hope for a price drop but looks like it won't happen lol
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At first I thought ok, consistent dividend but over the past 2-3 years, gloves stocks are moving nowhere. They just kept going up defying common sense. Hartalega will be around 70PER if they reported another 3.x cents for Q4.

We used to provide materials to contractors for the mechanical structures for some of them. They had slowdown quite a lot over the past few years due to over capacity and pricing wars. Even now with the pandemic, I dont think there will be shortages.
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 02:46 PM)
At first I thought ok, consistent dividend but over the past 2-3 years, gloves stocks are moving nowhere. They just kept going up defying common sense. Hartalega will be around 70PER if they reported another 3.x cents for Q4.

We used to provide materials to contractors for the mechanical structures for some of them. They had slowdown quite a lot over the past few years due to over capacity and pricing wars. Even now with the pandemic, I dont think there will be shortages.
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more like FOMO. as long as the pandemic doesn't end glove stock prices should continue to rise. probably will take a hefty dividend pay out for the share price to drop as it would be the new normal with frequent PPE wearing now. with all the profit now they can always diversify to intensify nitrile gloves production and other forms of PPE. with the oil price crash, theoretically the ingredient price for synthetic rubbers should be much much lower which translates into higher profit margin.
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 28 2020, 03:37 PM)
more like FOMO. as long as the pandemic doesn't end glove stock prices should continue to rise. probably will take a hefty dividend pay out for the share price to drop as it would be the new normal with frequent PPE wearing now. with all the profit now they can always diversify to intensify nitrile gloves  production and other forms of PPE. with the oil price crash, theoretically the ingredient price for synthetic rubbers should be much much lower which translates into higher profit margin.
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For nitrile gloves, the raw materials are bought in USD. Therefore the rise in USD should not affect profit margin.

As for natural rubber gloves, competitions are hot.
kkk8787
post Apr 28 2020, 04:00 PM

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Many ppl say after QR will see crash in price of many shares. Surely this has been factored in isnt it. Nobody bought the shares thinking QR will actually be better than last quarter
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 03:45 PM)
For nitrile gloves, the raw materials are bought in USD. Therefore the rise in USD should not affect profit margin.

As for natural rubber gloves, competitions are hot.
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more like the drop in crude oil will increase their profit margin.
GloryKnight
post Apr 28 2020, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 28 2020, 04:00 PM)
Many ppl say after QR will see crash in price of many shares. Surely this has been factored in isnt it. Nobody bought the shares thinking QR will actually be better than last quarter
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I agree on this with you. Even after HSBC announce 50% profit decline (inclusive of provisions), it still never fell below my bought-in price.

However, i dont think one has priced in Q2 growth/decline results. So maybe May/June, we MIGHT be able to see another low.
kkk8787
post Apr 28 2020, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 28 2020, 04:15 PM)
I agree on this with you. Even after HSBC announce 50% profit decline (inclusive of provisions), it still never fell below my bought-in price.

However, i dont think one has priced in Q2 growth/decline results. So maybe May/June, we MIGHT be able to see another low.
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which date roughly u went in
GloryKnight
post Apr 28 2020, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 28 2020, 04:22 PM)
which date roughly u went in
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I bought in at 390.
cherroy
post Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 28 2020, 03:37 PM)
more like FOMO. as long as the pandemic doesn't end glove stock prices should continue to rise. probably will take a hefty dividend pay out for the share price to drop as it would be the new normal with frequent PPE wearing now. with all the profit now they can always diversify to intensify nitrile gloves  production and other forms of PPE. with the oil price crash, theoretically the ingredient price for synthetic rubbers should be much much lower which translates into higher profit margin.
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No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.

But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.

Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.

More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.

When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.

Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.

PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.

skty
post Apr 28 2020, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 28 2020, 01:42 PM)
Short selling extended till 30 june boys..
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wow. nice. the price will drop further and remain stagnant until 30 June then.
whyseej00
post Apr 28 2020, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Apr 28 2020, 05:01 PM)
wow. nice. the price will drop further and remain stagnant until 30 June then.
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short selling will be SUSPENDED until 30th June....
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM)
No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.

But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.

Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.

More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.

When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.

Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.

PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.
*
Actually there's no more expansion from glove sector. Some like Hartalega and Supermax are just doing what they have been planning for years, completing the big upgrade albeit very slowly. We did supply the parts for first 2 factories in Sepang in 2012 IIRC, then the new boss suddenly changed contractor due to some communication issue with my client. It was even more messy with the new contractor and the change in design was so bad that they couldn't keep factory 3&4 running full time. After tiptoe for a year or two, they went back to my client but damage already done. The change in design was permanent since Hartalega already bought the steel material thus no choice but to opt out. Last I heard they were on the way to complete 5&6 which is final completion for Sepang.

Before this, they were considering to refurbish old lines in old factory but even that was scrapped due to forecast lower demand. Personally I dont see a way how gloves would return to those days. The only expansion that you would see is probably from those smaller sized one like Careplus or VIP gloves.

Gloves are still very profitable no doubt, but why would you pay RM7 for Hartalega (example) when you are only getting less than 10cents back in dividends. Its recession proof but other than that, there's no reason to pay a premium for gloves counter when they are all trading at over 30x PER.
skty
post Apr 28 2020, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Apr 28 2020, 05:10 PM)
short selling will be SUSPENDED until 30th June....
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ya suspended. nice. the price will drop further and remain stagnant until 30 June then.

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