sad thing is, in the midst of this, our currency continue to fall against others.

Telekom good time to enter?

If u are investing for a few years time frame, just chill.

While this virus is a bad thing, at the start, the market has underestimated the impact. I was banging my head why markets still going up. Now crash like crazy. Likely now the market is overestimating.

So yah, it will impact the economy and profitability. Probable case is 1H2020 will be bad. March, April, May, June. Still seem very long. It could drag to 3Q perhaps. Worse case 4Q I think.

A lot of stimulus and money have and will be thrown into the economy by the govt and once it is over the markets will play catch up very fast.

Most important now is take care of one's health and family health.

P/S I think need to monitor China. If second wave happen.. I will be very scared.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 13 2020, 06:26 PM

if you are 0.99 or 0.00 entry; then you are OK. You still can stay on. But you are at 1.85 now; sell?

wondering too~

for long term, better hold. IGB Reit gives out decent dividend anyway....

if want to sell, wait for the next MPC meeting since everyone is expecting a rate cut. That should boost REITs a bit.

MPC?

its you holding at high price I been keeping this for so long; unless it is nuked then i`ll throw. If still operating; keep it.

many so brave catch falling knives

GG

baru mula sabar

*falling Kris

Brave the waveeee. Gonna ride this through, maybe global stimulus coming.

any comment about sunwayReit?
Seems it's very resilient to the recent string of bad news

I'm planning to buy PCHEM due to its all time low price and basically a giant in its field. Recovery is imminent at some point.

Any thoughts?

don't understand why people still dare to touch o&g counters

I think it's a good investment.

No comment. PCHEM should be producing petrochemicals. It's direct competitor should be LCTITAN which is also not doing well.
Do note that the demand for certain petrochemical might continue to drop as people switch to zero plastic waste.
Malaysia has already charged RM0.20 for plastic bags, eateries using paper bags etc..

Yeah O&G is pretty much sunset industry. There is abundant oil on Earth.
Just that supply is restricted to a few countries/people just like diamonds.
It's just like the media wants to keep promoting that there is limited land on Earth, so you should buy properties today.

In the long run, I believe many O&G players will either exit or consolidate.

Pchem is not a direct O&G player, it is not drilling oil or selling crude oil.

Pchem is a petro chemical company that makes chemical and polymeric product or laymen term plastic product from crude oil that are essential to many industrial, from automotives to plantation like urea/ammonia.

If crude oil becomes too cheap, it means its raw material cost become cheaper as well, and when if petrochem product is in high demanded due to economy recovery or stimulus, then the situation become positive towards the company profitability.

Normally petrochem product price is highly corelated to crude oil, but profit margin can swing due to disparity of magnitude of rise or drop in price between crude oil and petrochem products.

If worldwide economy activities becomes normalise and grow again, petchem can be a choice of recovery theme play.

O&G mostly needs to avoid are those highly debt companies, which depend heavily on contracts given by upstream oil player from time to time, whereby revenue is heavily relied on Capex of upstream player.

Not every O&G company is the same.
Some O&G may benefit from the extreme low crude price, 2-3 years ago, refiners benefited a lot of from extreme low crude oil price, whereby we see refiners stocks sky rocketed 2 or 3 fold as their profit sky-rocketed during that period.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 14 2020, 05:24 PM

Petrochemical is not limited to ordinary daily plastic we use, a lot of manufacturing activities need petrochem product, from solution, gluing, grease, lubricant oil to synthetic rubber that used for gloves etc.

Making plastic straw or carrying plastic beg in supermarket is a sunset business, yes, but O&G is not a sunset business, O&G may consolidate, but not obsolete.

Profit margin of business may not as good due to various reason, more competitors etc, or even some non-efficient plant run at loss, this may happen, but at the same times, petrochem industry is an essential part of modern life-style already.

There is simply too long a list of product in our daily life which cannot escape from petro chem products.
We may not want to use a plastic spoon, but we still wear cloth made from polyester, use non-sticky cooking pan which is also made of polymeric materials.
It is everywhere, just we do not notice, it comes from crude oil or petro chemical.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 14 2020, 06:10 PM

Last time Oil was this low was back in 2015. Petchem dropped to RM5. It then went up to RM9.50 in 2018, and paid good dividends in between. So that's about 100+% return in 3 years.

I think highly possible the same can happen again, the only thing holding me back is whether now is too early to enter. Back in 2015, we had an oil price war. Now there is virus+ oil price war. And this virus is more damaging compared to SARS.

It all down to the OPEC outcome. If they can sort it out, then we will see rebound.

OPEC+ may not come into agreement so soon and market will be flooded with oil. And we may now be looking at a global recession which means shrinking oil demand. I think we will see oil drop back to 20s again.

Which also mean the possibility of USD1:MYR4.5 in the next few months.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 15 2020, 01:36 AM