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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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MedElite23
post Jan 26 2021, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jan 26 2021, 02:00 PM)
If's it's milo or biscuit, tguan has less to do with it

more involves daibochi or tomypak
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You’re right.

TGuan’s source of revenue primarily comes from premium stretch firm, followed by trash bags and courier bags by percentage in descending order. The food and tea segment is catching up as well, making up to about 8% in revenue.
MedElite23
post Jan 26 2021, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 26 2021, 02:47 PM)
Wouldn't the glass be half full if we came from the angle that outperforming branch will pull up underperforming branches? Conglomerates spread their risk across different industries, so I guess that's an insurance premium at the cost of synergistic industries.

SPMX too haha. May have similar views on investment strategy, definitely looks to be the case. Well, if you ever want to have a nuts & bolts discussion on strategy, we can use the other thread to do so. Easier to track.
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Yup we can surely look at it from the opposite angle. Anyway, do we have a conglomerate group whose share price has been increasing steadily over the years? Maybe my vision is narrow in this regard.

Btw, last night I worked out the intrinsic value of TGuan based on discount cash flow method. See if I got the time I’ll post at BWC. You can take it as a reference or I’ll be all ears if you have any comment smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 28 2021, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 28 2021, 11:01 PM)
Bro that telegram group is going to be investigated by Bursa 100%. You underestimate how influential institutions in Malaysia. They run Malaysia's finance industry man. Whereas in the US market, they cannot prosecute every single person from all over the world. I would advise staying away from all glove-related private groups except the subreddit Bursa Bets.

Also, people are trying to prop up the warrant price issued by IBs. These IBs will definitely retaliate. The reason why CNBC and Melvin is scared is because it is impossible to take down the subreddit because they would have to go against 4Chan, Reddit and all the public forums and violate the First Amendment. Instant shutdown by IB and SC. Rich people getting pissed off. From the legal perspective, they would use whatever tool they can especially S. 205 CMSA which prohibits the manipulation of derivatives and cornering. And 204 that forbids the spread of information that would cause an effect in the price of derivatives.

In the (first post on the subreddit), they provide no context and quantitative evidence to support their thesis. They only mentioned about how glove stocks drop every quarterly earnings (which Apple and Tesla also suffered from a drop in SP after earnings), bearish price targets, mental encouragement and chicken soup phrases and lots of baseless claims on market manipulation by IBs. IMO their thesis on a possible forced short squeeze is incredibly weak and baseless.

I always make fun of market manipulation on this forum but truthfully in this case, the IBs are completely compliant of Bursa's Standard of Conduct and CMSA on short selling. They did not over-short TopGlove or Supermax because they possess the right to "short sell shares of a company in order to reflect the true valuation of a company that he or she perceives based on sufficient due diligence'. Note that JP Morgan Chase released an analyst report on their bearish stance on Supermax which is adequate to justify their short position.

Now from the technical standpoint, GameStop was shorted 160%. TopGlove was shorted at max 60% on the first week of 2021. Now its dropped significantly to unbelievable levels. Net short position at 2.6%.

I still really want them to succeed. But I don't wish them to bet with their hard earned savings.
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Very noble of you lol.. rclxm9.gif

Now apply that statement to your hard-preached tech stocks that apparently have no price too high to pay for laugh.gif

user posted image

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 28 2021, 11:19 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(SK_SK_001 @ Jan 29 2021, 12:20 PM)
ehh why suddenly as we approaching lunch >> the posts here bullish on gloves ?? hahahaha

Saw lot's of shit on gloves in the morning then now check back ehh glove is turning positive ?
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I thought I was the only one noticing that haha..

The very same person that spat shit on the glove sector swallowed it back blatantly in the span of less than..3 hours..I had to re-check if it’s coming from the same mouth.. laugh.gif

Perhaps statikinetic is right after all haha..
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 29 2021, 12:51 PM)
7 is mid floor, i have lived in one before, for real! laugh.gif
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Funny thing is I find the term “trapped” and “penthouse” have been misused to describe people whose stock is in a losing position..more often than not, these terms are used to gain pleasure from seeing others “lose money”.

What’s the relevance to long term investors whose strategy is to keep for 3-5 years, not like the person would sell because of short term price movement.. tiba2 pulak kene labeled as “trapped”, “living in penthouse”, “trying to escape” rclxub.gif

Remember life comes in full circle.. smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Jan 29 2021, 01:13 PM)
I like your point on mo la la term for buta buta kena labeled as trapped, lol...I guess people likes the pleasure of seeing others suffer as a result of perceived greediness by these individuals.
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Untamed human nature..

Fortunately there are still civilized forumers here who genuinely enjoy exchanging views on investment/trades, otherwise it makes no difference from i3.
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 29 2021, 01:52 PM)
actually about i3... if u ignore the monkey noises, there are a few very insightful people giving useful info and analysis.

i guess same here - some comments are less than worthless, some are very worthy.
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You’re right, I’ve learnt a tonne from Philip at i3, his courage to be transparent about his portfolio.

Over the years, I’ve learnt that investing is a personal journey. If you believe in a company, just have a strategy and stick to it, evaluate your portfolio on a regular basis and rebalance if necessary. It would be awesome to be able to find an encouraging community to trade investment views. If you can’t, that’s fine too. Either you earn money or you learn a lesson. smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 29 2021, 01:57 PM)
You know something.

The one never have it will always jealous those who have it.

Living high / penthouse enjoying views etc.. is one`s best now. Let sour grapes sour...they`ll be the wine of our End celebration. What a life one could ask for?

After all, those living in city also lived in Penthouse, big mansion up in the sky. Never seen them whine about how bad is up there.

laugh.gif
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Maybe..just maybe.. the term can forcibly used on traders who refuse to cut loss.

As an investor, it sounds absurd to expect your stock picks turn green overnight if you indeed found a gem yet to be discovered.

Just some food for thought.. if you bought a stock and it turns green immediately, you might wanna consider if you’ve bought “at the top” or you lost the opportunity to deploy capital in batches (assuming you did not all in, which you shouldn’t anyway), or less often than not..lucky to have caught the start of an uptrend..

Otherwise..where do you think “buy low sell high” comes from..? Think about it.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 29 2021, 02:27 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 06:38 PM

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MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 29 2021, 06:40 PM)
PAT as foretold  whistling.gif
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DDLY.
MedElite23
post Jan 29 2021, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 29 2021, 06:55 PM)
dividend of 3.8sen sucks big time. biggrin.gif

but i suppose a lot of the rm3.7bil cash will be used for the USA and UK projects.
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To be fair, either way people will talk them down.

Low dividend = boss is stingy.

High dividend = the boss should’ve used the profit for business expansion.

I choose to look at the glass half full. Do you believe people will say I choose to ignore the half empty glass? Hahaha biggrin.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 31 2021, 06:50 PM

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Found this on Reddit, thought it was really funny haha!

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MedElite23
post Jan 31 2021, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Jan 31 2021, 02:24 PM)
I'm a newbie, and not much of a chart, bla bla person.
But, isn't this the right mentality we should have?

I know Bursa is very irrational (what I've learnt since I joined stock journey), and fundamentals seem to mean little, but I still think it will prevail, so long as we have holding power and patience to wait for years if the price doesn't go up. I'm in 30%+ losses on average for the gloves, but I'm unfazed already by now because of this. I could be wrong according to those few people who scolded me for being stupid to hold on, but...for now, I remain to my stand (and risk losing more, haha).

I welcome any thoughts about mindset change. It's a good weekend for self reflection, lol
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You initiated a good topic of discussion smile.gif

Someone has highlighted the point that fundamental does prevail over time, you just gotta be confident that your derivation is more likely to be correct than not.

Without getting into the nitty gritty, the logic behind earning money through investing is to make sure you invest in a company that is profitable, and will continue to be so in years to come. As long as the company earns money, you will earn money..

If you really are a long term investor and hold strong conviction to the companies you invest in, please ignore the noises from naysayers..nobody would remember topglov factories closing down because of covid cases..short selling...short squeezing...yada yada..It doesn’t matter in 5..8..10 years down the road...really..investing doesn’t necessarily need to involve conspiracy theories..keep it simple between you and the company performance is suffice.

If you have the holding power..consider DCA regularly into the companies you strongly believe in as long as they remain profitable..over time as you keep investing with discipline..the average cost would flatten out..

Don’t buy into the “paria” mentality of “trapped in high floor” la, “living in penthouse” la..these terms sound really absurd in the eyes of investors who started their investing journey reading great quality books like “the intelligent investors”, “security analysis”, “one up Wall Street”. Just my 2 cents..

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 31 2021, 11:12 PM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 05:56 AM

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Apparently TopGlov no longer in the net short position list. Meaning shorties have fully covered their position?

Kossan, Harta and Spmax are still being shorted. (from right to left at increasing order)

To my surprise, Public bank is also not in the shorting list.. hmm.gif


MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 3 2021, 07:33 AM)
shocker!

but it's not adding up.

data for previous day, 27 jan showed a net short position of 2.95% or 241.9mil shares.

jan 29, total vol was only 161.6mil.

something else happened... but what?!
the shorts for PBB started only a few days ago, total now is about 20mil, about 0.1%.

think it will show in the next short position report if there was no buyback.
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https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/..._2021-02-02.pdf

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/...ion20210202.pdf

Refer to the above two lists, shorting of public bank is present in one list and absent in another, based on 2/2/21.

What does it tell you regarding the reliability of these reports? Both lists sourced from Bursa website.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 3 2021, 07:57 AM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 08:32 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 3 2021, 08:24 AM)
O&G... how will petronas fare?

Exxon Mobil reports a $20 billion loss, fourth-straight quarter in the red
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/exxon-xom-e...gs-q4-2020.html

BP reports its first full-year loss in a decade after ‘brutal’ year
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/bp-reports-...rutal-year.html
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Good opportunity to contrarians to accumulate smile.gif

I initiated a small position in dialog yesterday, it has fallen approx.18% from its peak.
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Feb 3 2021, 08:34 AM)
i think dialog is a decent company but dunno why keep dropping lately. heard about the court case with pengerang? i bought some last week but dropped further tis week lol..
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I’ve been watching it since it was 3.65. Didn’t enter as I couldn’t muster enough confidence in the company besides being inexperienced in playing cyclical stocks. Retrospectively, it was the correct decision. I chose them over other OnG companies for being diversified in up,mid and downstream, allowing them to be less affected by fluctuation of oil price.

I read about the court case too, but I’m not too affected by it as it won’t affect the company’s fundamental. It’s an opportunity to “test the water”.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 3 2021, 08:39 AM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Feb 3 2021, 08:39 AM)
Because like Pfizer, both are good companies that won’t go away for some time. But the growth potential is lower because these companies are already considered “successful”. Just like venture capitalists, they usually find startups and invest in them before they rise into prominence.
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I think this is one of the main differences between value investing and growth investing. No right or wrong, just individual preference. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 3 2021, 08:41 AM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Feb 3 2021, 10:10 AM)
My own strategy is 5 until we see a consolidation. Right now, it’s still on breakout trend. But like I only look at the Bursa tech index. Individual stock doesn’t matter for me. Just hold until Chinese New Year. Already say confirm angpau

Just buy quality semiconductor companies and you’ll be set. Don’t be tempted by the ‘cheaper’ stocks. smile.gif Bursa tech 100!!! I averaged up again today with fresh profits thanks to GME haha I’m all in

If you look closely and bought Malaysian tech stocks last year, the average performance is almost the same as if you buy US tech and growth. With the exception of US EV stocks. *Grass is not always greener on the other side*

Hopefully we can see Bursa tech index reach 90 before Chinese New Year. This is the year
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How much margin of safety are you looking at for the tech counters you’re holding?

Good momentum for traders. For investors, I’m not sure if they can stomach the paper loss when it corrects.. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 3 2021, 10:24 AM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 3 2021, 11:09 AM)
It's been awhile since I last saw most of my portfolio in green, with the exception of gloves. Wonder if the KLCI will bump the 1600 mark before end of the week.
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Just wondering,by green do you mean P/L wise or the solely the counters are green? biggrin.gif

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