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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 3 2021, 11:22 AM)
Day gain. Not often I see the majority of industries sync up. Except gloves of course which is always inverse. biggrin.gif
Since I had some entry positions recently, it'll take awhile for the P/L to go all green. Hopefully.
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Ah..day gain is the term.

I ask because there is resemblance in our holding counters biggrin.gif

My watchlist is full of greens too, not surprising since the whole index is up.

No shopping for today, I guess.
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(BliitzkrieG @ Feb 3 2021, 11:40 AM)
How can they afford this kind of "error".

Wonder what's their hidden agenda or its just mere typographical / clerical mistake.
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A “typographical” mistake sounds more forgivable than limiting buying of shares.

Besides that, why only TopGlov?

Long term wise it still doesn’t matter, but this needs to be nitpicked on, as such a move would cause a sentiment shift in the weak holders, we’re seeing that now.
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 3 2021, 02:06 PM)
Should already be factored in today.
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The line between MCO & CMCO is getting blurred..

Might as well scrape off the term MCO, just announce forbid interstate crossing. ranting.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 3 2021, 02:17 PM
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 02:23 PM

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Tricky move.

They know if MCO is lifted and covid cases continue to surge, people aren’t going to be happy.

If real MCO is implemented, the economy will collapse.

So they play around with the wordings, extend MCO! but all business as usual.

Very cunning move.
MedElite23
post Feb 3 2021, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Feb 3 2021, 04:34 PM)
i think topkek sound more suitable  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
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Wakaka..I saw this coming, in fact I was typing already..but thought this isn’t kopitiam..but owh well...hahaha, good one! biggrin.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 4 2021, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(Momo33 @ Feb 4 2021, 02:00 PM)
just my view  after reading  various reports  ...all available  just  google .

foreigners have been selling  every week this year. 
only retailers are buying  to speculate .
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Every year we’ll see headline news saying A CRASH IS COMING!

Well if you throw the darts enough times eventually you’ll score the center..

Sometimes...people lose more money anticipating a crash than an actual crash itself..Peter Lynch said so. tongue.gif

Timing the market, or not, decision is in your hand. Cheers! smile.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 4 2021, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 4 2021, 09:08 PM)
Noted the shift of focus from TG to SPMX in terms of RSS in the past week.
Perhaps there is a view that the glove groups popping up are primarily TG and not SPMX?
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Ironically, spmax closed green today, LOVE LOVE IT! rclxm9.gif

Has anyone thought of the possibility that future drop in ASP and net profit already priced in?

On average, their price has dropped 40% from peak. Mr.Market being the brilliant chap wouldn’t have not known this?

If the uncertainty cum risk is already what everyone knows, what risk is left in there?

Many people would be disappointed, me included, if the glove price didn’t end up falling back to pre-covid level sad.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 4 2021, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Feb 4 2021, 09:26 PM)
It's not if but when... Soon it will be over capacity again. Don't forget that these glove makers embarked on expansion since H1N1. Even before the completion of their new mega factory, utilization were merely 60-70% at best. Now everyone expanding again (no choice since newbies gonna catch you napping), it's only a matter a time where the strongest will survive. That is why I think some of them are going back on their promises to commit at least 50% profit as dividends. They will use their new treasure chest to fund a free mega factory to kill off these newbies once covid is over.
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Cool, good to hear on your thoughts. biggrin.gif

Now time to hear some facts by Mr.Kuan from Hartalega rclxm9.gif

Just watch the video in the following, 3 minutes only. statikinetic

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10_OtXWMRuk...ew?usp=drivesdk

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 4 2021, 09:55 PM
MedElite23
post Feb 4 2021, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 4 2021, 09:34 PM)
It is not a possibility. It is a definite that the future drop is already priced in.
When? The entire Oct '20 - Jan '21 period. That was when the sentiment went from overly bullish to overly bearish. The price dropped to almost half from the peak. The entire dip tripped CL over CL and just bottomed out at an area where investors realized it was being incredibly oversold. Then the billion ringgit profits per quarter started being realized.

At this point, the success of expansion plans are yet to be factored in. I recall seeing in one of the reports that the uncertainty around expansion success is translated today to a lower TP. If expansions start showing some success indicators or milestones, that will revise ASP upwards.
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Exactly. While I see a lot of “thoughts” being expressed, I prefer to hear facts from the CEO himself. (I’m by no means disregarding their thoughts,really.)
MedElite23
post Feb 4 2021, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Feb 4 2021, 09:46 PM)
They are already milking the expansion right now. Just look at the figures and do some rough calculations. Right now everyone is at 100% utilization. The problem starts next year onwards when all the lines at the newbies factories comes online. Suddenly influx and then these big 4 themselves also planned expansion already. Hartalega already talking ngc1.5, supermax also. If course it won't come online in a year but once they fully commission over say 5-6 years time, I think that's when the nightmare starts.
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Err..the newbies factories (in your words) do not have (in comparison to the big 4’s):
1.) glove output capacity
2.) financial means of scalability
3.) pricing power
4.) reputation
5.) worldwide connection
6.) intricate technology
7.) GLOVE QUALITY

Are you making the assumption that the big players’ business would stagnate in the 5-6 years? hmm.gif

biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 4 2021, 09:59 PM
MedElite23
post Feb 5 2021, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Feb 5 2021, 07:37 PM)
Price to sales ratio is one of the metrics that saved some hedge funds from margin call during the dotcom bubble. Read further.

Ok la. Never mind. Whether Bursa index will hit 100 or not, I cannot guarantee so if you’re not confident about another possible Malaysian tech rally, please sell everything. I also do not wish for anyone to lose money because of me occasionally posting the “HODL” memes and cause some people to bag hold. I shall add a disclaimer. (It’s 2021, anyone can be sued because of an online comment) My opinions should not be a deciding factor in your personal investment strategies. Please consult a financial advisor or your personal remisier before you execute any trades.
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You know, I have to commend you for having a firm stand on the tech stocks, and you're not afraid to justify what you truly believe in.

It's impossible for everyone to see eye to eye on any subject of discussion, and that's fine. Either way we can learn something from each other, or at least agree to disagree.

thumbsup.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 5 2021, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Feb 5 2021, 06:10 PM)
True...

I don't really care about what ppl think... Loss is just loss... I still happily tell everyone I'm holding Insas from 5 years ago at RM1.075 cost. I dont even care about since it literally wont go bust in near future.
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Can you share with us what caused you to jump in 5 years ago at the peak? (retrospectively speaking)

What was the stimulus that caused the surge? I noticed it never came back after 2015.
MedElite23
post Feb 6 2021, 05:42 AM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Feb 5 2021, 11:53 PM)
Insas will only move after big move in Inari.
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Err..you didn’t answer my question..nvm it’s okay blush.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 6 2021, 10:04 PM

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QUOTE(1tanmee @ Feb 6 2021, 09:48 PM)
Is it advisable to do DCA (dollar-cost averaging) in stock investment, or rather best to lump sum buy and later sell?

1 con I see with DCA method is the transaction fee that may eat up the profit (& possibly making loss higher).

I'd like to hear your thoughts please?
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I do this. But only to a few targeted stocks that I have strong conviction in, and would like to start a position immediately (provided it’s not overvalued in my book), but do not want to time the market. One thing though, I do not pump into them endlessly. Instead, I allocate a fixed amount of money for that particular stock and DCA over 6 months or so depending on the price movement down the road. After that, I’ll wait to reap my harvest. The downside is, cheap can get cheaper haha laugh.gif so you need to have the stomach to swallow the temporary paper loss.

Some people prefer to lump sum when the stock price is in consolidation phase. You may wanna try out different approach and see which method suits you better.
MedElite23
post Feb 6 2021, 10:10 PM

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user posted image
user posted image

For sharing purpose:
I was revising my investment bible, came across this and immediately 2 companies appeared to my mind - CIMB & TNB tongue.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 6 2021, 11:32 PM

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QUOTE(1tanmee @ Feb 6 2021, 10:52 PM)
I have a few stocks that I have strong conviction in, and very much looking into DCA-into the stocks. For one, I don't have chuck load of money to go in lump sum. Secondly is because I am worried I am buying it at high price (which is a bit dumb, as I intend to keep it for a foreseeable future - but fear of losing gets the best of me).

I am not good in reading trends, so not sure if the market is in consolidation, bullish or what have you.

Maybe I'll see into your approach, setting a timeline for the DCA, stop, and wait it out for a foreseeable future. Thanks for the input!
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You can look at this this way;

By DCA-ing your allocated fund to a particular stock, you are buying time (for 6 months period, 2 quarters that is) to see if the company performance is up to your expectation before planning your next move.

In case the company execute a move that goes against your investing principle e.g doing share buy backs instead of distributing dividend back to shareholders or accounting fraud getting exposed, at least you're not "all in" and in essence lower your risk of losing more money. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 6 2021, 11:34 PM
MedElite23
post Feb 7 2021, 09:01 AM

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QUOTE(1tanmee @ Feb 7 2021, 01:24 AM)
Hmm that is another angle to look at! and this makes sense. Rather than risking it in a single transaction, I could spread it out over a few, and adjust whether it meets my expectation.

But I would have to weigh in against the purchase expenses. Say, using Rakuten, @RM9/purchase fee x 1 purchase × 6 months= RM54. & there's the selling cost as well. Not a lot as some may argue, but it does eat up on the profit.

Not rich, so I'll be buying small lots 😅, meaning that the price would need to go up many ticks before I could break even. Not really an issue as I expect the price to mive upwards as economy recovers in a year or two after the covid dust settles.
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Transaction fee and number of lots definitely play a role in determining whether DCA would suit you.

Alternatively, you can buy in batches instead of DCA-ing. E.g buy every 3 monthly. In this way your transaction fee will be lower, but you risk missing out the best buying opportunity.

All the best! smile.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 7 2021, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 7 2021, 10:06 AM)
I don't think the point is industry disruption here.

The main point is people view certain companies as solid blue chips without actually knowing what the actual value of the company is.
They think the company cannot fail and will continue to make money hand over fist. To the point they don't actually do basic research before they buy. Go look for the average Tenaga investor, how many actually know how the company revenue has been doing the past 5- 10 years?
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Statikinetic can always grasp the gist of a context precisely and express it beautifully. I have nothing to add. thumbup.gif notworthy.gif
MedElite23
post Feb 7 2021, 10:55 AM

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I’ll throw in another company name for case study purpose, pharmaniaga.
MedElite23
post Feb 7 2021, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(BoonieTan @ Feb 7 2021, 10:39 PM)
Was there a structural decline in the business since 2018? The decline started from then.
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Stock price always follows company's earnings in the long run, hence the decline of a company's share price over a protracted period definitely warrants some digging into the financial statements.

Tenaga's Debt-to-Equity ratio was 0.48 in 2016. As of the latest quarter, we're looking at D/E of 0.92, nearly doubled in the span of little over 4 years.

Despite being the monopoly in the utility sector, the business itself is not really profitable as they simply do not have the pricing power being a government linked company.

Ps: if you have time do observe around your neighbourhood to check if their lights, air-conditioner seem to be always switched on? you know the drill. laugh.gif

Anyway, flipping through their annual reports you'll also find the incremental debt is partly contributed by R&D in renewable energy sector.

In 2018, political instability started emerging due to the change in political party. Foreign investors never liked uncertainty, since then they have been slowly pulling out from our bursa..

The unexpected pandemic that came later certainly wasn't helping the situation...

That is enough to explain why the share price has been sliding....

Many people know these reasons, but they decide to buy into the company anyway, simply with the believe that it is a monopoly business, it cannot go bankrupt, and of course, it will come back.

*But you know as some of us have said, when the share price falls we always try to explain it with different reasons, sometimes it may be irrelevant already....it's all retrospective discussion...though there may be a certain extent of truth in it...* smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Feb 7 2021, 11:28 PM

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