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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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MedElite23
post Jan 20 2021, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 20 2021, 11:16 AM)
bro, no one here is inversing your strategy and shorting the stocks you mention la.. no one look twice at the amount you or the amount most of us trades... as i said, reddit(wsb daily discussion)  and this thread is completely different.. maybe you can open a /k thread and keep posting what everyone deems as spam! i personally find it entertaining but you are making the thread less attractive

btw you said you experienced the march crash, when you experienced the glove crash , you freaked out didnt you until you mentioned to everyone here you wanted to harm yourself etc
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It’s not my intention to insinuate, but based on the clinical history you described, I can’t help but to think of bipolar disorder. An extreme mood swing from mania to depression, just saying.
MedElite23
post Jan 20 2021, 12:17 PM

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KYY’s latest blog post today, claiming he made a mistake not selling Spmax and TG during the start of the sell down. Now he thinks price chart is more important than fundamental analysis.

To quote:
“I should have sold some of my holdings ealier. Now is too late to sell because each of them has already dropped about 40% from its recent peak.

The price charts for all the 4 leading glove stocks show that they all have been dropping in the last few months despite their excellent fundamental qualities.

Investors must remember that price chart takes preference over fundamtal analysis. You must sell as soon as the price chart is showing a down trend. Never buy a down trending stock even if its fundamental quality is excellent.”

Link here: https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/koonyewy...oon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Ps: from the context of his writing, it does give me the impression that maybe..just maybe..his blog post doesn’t consist of conspiracy that some of us have in discussion..he is merely sharing his thoughts in public. But it so happened that the stocks that he holds strong conviction to always end up ugly, to be fair isn’t entirely his fault. People who invest in a company just because he says it’s good, has only he himself to blame if suffered losses. Hey, no one grab your hand to press the ‘buy’ button..right..? rolleyes.gif

That being said, I won’t avoid a counter just because he has a say in it. We should be able to separate between a person’s opinion to a company to the actual value a company holds. My two cents. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 20 2021, 12:30 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 20 2021, 08:02 PM

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Going by the logic, I truly hope vaccine works effectively and can be administered to us as soon as possible! We’re just so done with COVID-19!

Inb4, give vaccine need wear gloves ah? How long more can glove companies enjoy supernatural profit? You hope COVID-19 to continue worsening so your glove share can come back ah? rclxs0.gif

#youdontsay tongue.gif

#incaseyoucantreadsarcasm

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 20 2021, 08:29 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 21 2021, 09:34 AM)
Wow... JFtech unbelievable...
HPP too...
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Welcome to Bursa de Casino smile.gif

I present to you our newly introduced metric of valuation: the price to dream ratio laugh.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 21 2021, 10:23 AM)
If the price is going up, then it is a good stock - momentum trading
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To each his own la bro..

Perhaps I’m more traditional, to me..a stock represents small stake of a business..

Of course I can understand where the trader’s POV is coming from.. smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 21 2021, 12:08 PM)
I think the targetted repayment assistance might be too small a pool to explain the large retail inflow.
My two cents is that there are way more retail participants this time around and the inflows are actually tied to their life savings.

This is a double edge sword. If it can tide the current downturn, it acts as a convenient buffer.
In a crash, people lose their jobs but no longer have the usual savings to fall back on as that has evaporated in the stock market. It is a big distance to fall for the man on the street.
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True that bro, as an investor would you rather stay on the side line and try...to time the market or stay invested and ride through the storm? Looking forward to hearing your opinion on this smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Jan 21 2021, 12:18 PM)
glove is going down again.. here we go again..
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Fellow glove holders let’s sit tight, fasten your belt and ride the roller roaster of Bursa de Casino yo! You’ve been through this, you can surely go through it again rclxm9.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 21 2021, 12:35 PM)
DIP is GOOD. biggrin.gif
thus it come clearly on the man on the street with their finance literacy.
Have you DCA? unsure.gif
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Ya sis, I DCA every month regularly across the counters I invest in.

To me, I can’t predict how the market will behave tomorrow, next week or next year. But I’m sure he market will always be up over the course of say.. 10 years? smile.gif

Staying on the sideline doesn’t suit my investment philosophy too as I am not confident I’ll be able to jump back in at the most botttom. It’s more like a process of “collecting” shares if you will, during a bear market.

MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 21 2021, 12:47 PM)
If you think we are near the peak of bull market, you can divert to medium term investing and sell some long term stocks. Actually the March crash did not feel scary at all. Unless the next crash goes on for decades and people start thinking stocks are trash just like cash and bonds right now
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Alright thanks for your advice smile.gif

One key difference between the stock market and bond/cash is that the latter lacks productivity, bond yield is fixed and hence your return is capped.

On the other hand, behind every stock we hold is an operating company, if choose correctly the return may turn out to be way beyond expectations.

I’m still too young to consider buying bonds right now. Same goes for REITS. Of course I’m only speaking for myself. Different folks different strokes. (And Syie I hope I answered you here too smile.gif )

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 21 2021, 01:02 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 21 2021, 01:01 PM)
I think the long term data of staying invested is irrefutable in the long term. There are times when I take my money completely off the table (Beginning of this year for example with the political situation threatening to result in a GE which then tanks healthcare), but usually I stay in. What I do personally, is adjust my investment-cash ratio accordingly. I am about 70% invested with 30% cash. This is purely from my stock portfolio, which is totally separate from my personal savings and funds I own. I would highly encourage people to create that firm separation between their stock portfolio and their other finances. You must be able to tolerate losing your stock budget. I can lose my entire stock budget and I can safely say generally my lifestyle still remains the same. I'd be awfully sad though.

Timing the market for me is an exercise in futility. New investors are incredibly bullish here, and I was no different. Learnt through experience so I prefer to have a borader strategy. Of course, I still have to time my entry points. My absolute max tolerance in the current climate is about 80% portfolio investment. If a big correction comes, I still have cash to take opportunities to make up for the hit I take on my stocks. In times of volatility, always give yourself some cash headroom.

I can't put this forward without mentioning the macro forces factor to put all these in context. The government is a lot more aware now on avoiding a market crash. Compared to the start of 2020, they have less mechanisms at their disposal now. They are near bottom in terms of lowering interest rates so that's going to be in the realm of last resorts. Moratoriums have been dispensed, they can ill afford to give out another round. People can lambast the government as they are the easy targets in the fight between healthcare and the economy. In some sense, people risk dying today of Covid or dying tomorrow from economic impact. Another economic slide may not be recoverable. Things look stable for now.
The financial literacy of the avearage Malaysian has always been poor.
I wager most retail buyers don't even know what the company they bought shares in does.

Given a magic wand, I'd make life finance classes covering personal finance, personal taxes and potential investments part of the upper school syllabus in front of religious or moral studies. These are things you WILL end up using and benefit your life. But then again, I may be biased as I am part of the FIs.
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Learn’t something new today, thanks smile.gif

You mentioned about adjusting your investment-cash ratio impending financial crisis and the likes...do you mean only taking money that you’ve made on paper, off the table or may it also be the money that you happen to be making paper losses? hmm.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jan 21 2021, 01:18 PM)
Reits is a good hedge against inflation
you get your returns, with capital appreciation with close to inflationary rate
of cause, one also should study with due diligent and pick which Reits to invest in
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Yes, another thing about reit is that you need a rather large capital in order to yield satisfactory return. I think as I grow my portfolio, I will be more receptive towards placing some money in reits for hedging purpose.
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Jan 21 2021, 05:19 PM)
yup, if it's really due to MCO, then glove counter should go up...
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I think it’s not a bad idea for us to consider not correlating one sector to another sector with “I vs them” mindset. I mean.. try not to think when the “recovery” stock goes up, glove counters must go down, vice versa.

Behind every stock is a company, a business. The fact that during mco 1.0 the glove sector had a bull rally while the rest of the sectors plummeted doesn’t necessarily translate to history repetition during mco 2.0, because the sentiment has changed drastically.

This time around, retailers generally don’t look up to the glove sector anymore, no amount of good news nor superb earning report can unfold their blind-folded eyes. They believe pandemic is near to an end. They think once the pandemic is over, the glove demand will disappear overnight.

But if the market is really thaaat straight forward and predictable, who is going to be the fool?

While the market is pessimistic towards the glove sector, does that mean the glove sector is dying? No. The glove manufacturing machines are still operating at its full capacity day and night like a money printer.

All that I’m trying to say is, the glove sectors can “co-habitate” with other sector. Perhaps one day..when the pendulum reaches extreme pessimism, it will start swinging the opposite direction again, reverting share price back to its mean.

The market behaves not only like a weighing machine in the long term, but it also behaves in cycle.
MedElite23
post Jan 21 2021, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 21 2021, 06:03 PM)
If you said so then tech really should be over. I think there's reason for their meteorite rise which is explained by their sheer eps alone. Yes, unsustainable but for 2022 onwards. The market is trying to price it moving along. I think at current price, it is still attractive given the high DY, but at the same time could be a trap if China really pull off 100b gloves in next 2 years not even including current expansions locally as well as new players.
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I don’t have insider info, but there’s certainly a role of natural resources advantage, an economical moat, a technical edge that we have in the glove manufacturing business developed over more than 30 years. It’s not as simple as building a factory, start mass producing and “put yourself on the map”.

By your logic, China should become the king of manufacturing of everything in the world, but that sounds naive to say the least. Being responsible for 2/3 glove supply to the world, who do you think make the final call on ASP? China..? Or Thailand?

The market is too quick to jump to a conclusion, 2022 onwards yada yada..touchwood if the vaccines don’t work, what then? How does mutated covid-21 sound like? It’s futile to make prediction, let alone a far-fetched one.

Throwing you the ball from another angle..how sustainable is our semiconductor manufacturing business ah? Not scared one day China Indonesia Thailand will start playing catch-up ah? tongue.gif

We’re going sidetrack already, actually I just wanted to convey the msg that.. the recovery counters..the banking sectors..the tech sectors..you name it.. they all can co-exist, as long as the companies’ profit is good.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 21 2021, 06:27 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 22 2021, 11:13 AM)
In case your companies have exposure to the Tokyo Olympics.
MedElite23

Japan privately concludes Tokyo Olympics should be cancelled due to coronavirus

https://www.thestar.com.my/sport/others/202...rus---the-times
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Privately concluded seems not conclusive lol. Are you holding on?
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 22 2021, 11:30 AM)
Need to be aware of the pressures surrounding the event. In Japan, the public approval of holding the Olympics has fallen from 28% last year to 12% this year.
They are already exploring for exit options as they have spent big money already with sponsors and the build.

I am still holding for now as my buy decision was not because of the Olympic factor. It will definitely help as a catalyst if it really goes on.
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Same, I’ll likely be holding as well, might even average down as the case of cancellation is temporary. Will keep monitoring closely.
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 22 2021, 11:44 AM)
Might not be my place to comment but gonna leave this here anyway, the averaging down makes me a little uncomfortable.
If it works for you. smile.gif
Not directly linked but industry linked.
Sportswear is expected to benefit for example. Packaging to take your exmaple if a company has exports to Japan.
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Averaging down on this counter would be my last resort. My interest is primarily in the tech industry now, but as we know it might not be the best time to enter now (being a contrarian).
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 22 2021, 01:37 PM)
there has been no love for gloves for WEEKS-MONTHS.

and this morning, the shorts continued, from reliable source:

Top Glove: 2,263,100
Harta: 167,100 shares
Kossan, Supermax: 0

perhaps not too late to add this afternoon?! laugh.gif
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I watched the stockbit video by Rondy yesterday, what he said seems to make sense. EPF doesn’t own >5% of spmax (if at all), that’s why we don’t see RSS on spmax. Chances are, they might have to cover the shorts before QR out, the stake is too high to not cover the short position. Daily interest of borrowing shares, possible dividend announcement to pay back, expected super earnings. The upside is uncapped. If spmax is up, the rest of them will follow suit.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 22 2021, 01:45 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 04:50 PM

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Just done seeing covid pts.

Opened my brokerage acc, saw the glove counters retraced. Nevertheless, I’m happy with the rebound today, it was out of my expectation.

Considering the whole index got pulled down to 1590, I’d say the glove counters did well. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 22 2021, 04:50 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 22 2021, 04:53 PM)
When did you got in sis?

unsure.gif
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You mean “get it”?

Sorry I meant to say I just done attending to covid patients (pt is an abbreviation for patient, my bad I forgot I’m writing in a forum haha)


MedElite23
post Jan 22 2021, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 22 2021, 04:58 PM)
Yeah, your EP. Are you entering at high price. ? unsure.gif
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Depends on your definition of high price lol. During the previous rebound I was close to breaking even. It wouldn’t make an actual difference to me though, as I’m not selling anytime soon. Of course, I’ll still be happy to have another green counter in my portfolio biggrin.gif

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