Noted, today closed above 1600, above the support, no clear direction, will see how tomorrow.

Maybe because forward23 PEs are still high for
Harta 19.4
Topglov 16.8

When it was downtrending for the KLCI heaviest weights (banks), some KLCI banks went to forward PE 6.
Still have a lot of room to drop for gloves.

Harta and Topglov are still considered 'pricey' in terms of foward23 PE when compared to the banks.

Regardless, the whole KLCI might continue dropping due to this + RSS combo
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/557560

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 4 2021, 07:24 PM

How much is needed to reach that point though? Who want to be the last few one holding the shares though?
Whats the point of holding the shares just to make the share prices go up, but cannot use because cannot sell

More reasons for KLCI to continue dropping tomorrow

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 4 2021, 08:25 PM

Look at the bright side, if tomorrow dive another 10-15%, you will be glad you didnt buy more today

Vix Up + RSS + ISinar + PN going out bersatu

Trade carefully

Might be too late after that. People would have dumped all in advance. No one wants to be the last few ones holding value-decaying stocks.

Waiting very very patiently at 1.9

Tips please, aunty. Will gloves get bombarded with RSS again?
Which sector is next?

I will try answering them, but bro, I newbie, I am heretolearn from pros.

1. It doesnt make sense to me UNLESS it is undervalued and showing up-trending signal

2. YES la, IF they can short and make money, who doesnt want to short lol

3. No comment, I tak tau

4. why during those times, ppl still can make money ah? (I am assuming u are saying people back then can make money by buying not shorting)
People are still making money now without shorting.
Maybe back then less bubbles? Harder to get shorted and lose money?
The SS suspension for 9 months has allowed some sectors to go into bubble-ish valuation. back then with RSS and IDSS, bubbles are harder to form?

5.


I definitely agree on the bolded statement. We might see bubbles popping/deflating here and here across different sectors soon.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 5 2021, 03:27 PM

I think they will start bombarding other sectors soon.

Who doesnt want to short when there's money to be made?

Bro, very dangerous, LSTEEL loss making, no guarantee that it will turn around next q. I think steel up solely due to operators goreng. No real investors in that counter. You will get burned very painfully if you invest. Make sure set stop loss

Report to SC, I am waiting below RM3.

Lai liao, more empty units. More supply, property crashing liao.

Agreed, still waiting for the property correction to buy a unit

I bought banks already last time, sold all, rebought again when KLFI tested 15000, sold a lot again end of last year (still keeping BIMB for the restructuring although I trimmed my position in some other cheap banks); I want to see the impact of RSS on all sectors before buying anything, give myself 1 week to observe. I have like 70% cash 30% equities (71% of the 30% equities in banks)

I like everything that is cheap bro, thats why waiting gloves, gcb etc to drop to enter. I am waiting gloves at forward23 PE of 8, which is not too absurb la IMO.
Last time, during the downtrend KLCI banks went to forward PE of 6, I got in around forward PE of 7-8 for some counters and had to die die hold until they cameback.
I do realize that I possibly have to wait until next year for gloves to drop until my desired entry la

I only dont like OnG, steel - even if OnG cheap I also dont dare buy because I scare RE will almost completely replace OnG sooner than expected.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 5 2021, 08:45 PM

Lower the price, so that the price-to-rent ratio is reasonable for entry for a cheapskate like me.

Looking at both subsales and auctions, none in my intended area of stay has reached my desired entry price. Can only continue waiting patiently

I just had a glance at analysts reports released for Topglov today (not going to read for each glove counter, reading one just to check if the ASP projection has changed), they did not revise the earnings forecasts - this tells me that from analysts' views, the ASP is still expected to drop in 2022 and more in 2023. They only revised the DY

At 3.5 (PS: this is not my desired entry price)
EPS
PBB : 91.5 in 2021 and 44.2 in 2022, no data for 2023 (this use CY)
MIDF: 104.4 in 2021 and 43 in 2022, 25.9 in 2023 (this use FY)
I know FY and CY is different by a QR for Topglov but dont bash me for using this to get average EPS. (Yes, we should not only use data from 2 analysts, I have more data from other analysts in my excel but those are older data - one might argue those are old data releasd in Nov/Dec and hence not as valid - so I am not presenting them here, just using the latest one)

Average EPS:
97.95 in 2021
43.6 in 2022
25.9 in 2023

PE using RM3.5:
3.57 in 2021
7.56 in 2022
13.5 in 2023

rm3.5 will mean a PER of 2; if dividend is rm1, yield is 28% - a very bizarre scenario, dun u think? It will mean a PER of 3.57, but still bizzare
But since the PE will drop in the next 2 years (-50%, then -40%), I will not buy for its DY%.

Maybe 3.5 is unlikely this year, but 3.5 next year is possible. I dont want to bet now because I foresee the stock price could be a lot lower.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 6 2021, 12:36 AM

Agreed.

Even with no catalyst to drive the stock higher, but I would buy and hold this FMCG counter when it is below 3 though. Slow old man method of making money

Noted with thanks. Hahaha, I will only buy when there is an uptrend signal below my FA entry.

Lessons learnt from buying the banks last time purely based on FA. Although, still earned in the end.

Waiting at 4

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 6 2021, 09:39 AM

3.5 is JP value le, not mine. My safe FA entry is lower than 2.6 based on forward23 PE using currently available data.

It is possible, so I will definitely update my excel when analysts have data for FY24 NP. IF it is projected to be lower, I will definitely take that into account and use a lower FA entry.

I am more optimistic, I think another 1-2 year should be enough to shake out most people.

Forward PE of 8 using FY2023 NP. By 2023, earnings would have stabilized. Bukan Forward PE of 23.

Finance index now tesing 15000, if it breaks below, we will go to 14450

Looks like KLCI has the chance to go 1550. Trade safely guys

I totally agree, especially the 'techs'. Abit too overrated.
I am thinking of moving out of bursa and join the emerging markets that have a lot of FDI via unit trust.

For techs, their PE damn... not sure why they havent start shorting these techs.
If the growth is sustainable for years, then ok la, but we dont know yet lo

Just few examples:
Greatech FY22 estimated EPS is 25.9
UWC FY23 estimated EPS is 26

As of current price,
Greatech FY22 forward PE is 36 at RM9.48
UWC FY23 forward PE is 37.5 at RM9.75
They are definitely not cheap if they cannot grow the earnings after 2023, especially when FD is raised back later. But if they can sustain their growth rate even after 2023, then definitely can consider, but now no projection data for after 2023 yet

Because of contribution from Topglov and Harta, they are till up a lot compared to pre-covid. Totally carried the KLCI

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Jan 6 2021, 02:14 PM