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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(Xp3rT @ Aug 6 2020, 02:29 PM)
Riverstone
Q4 19 - revenue 257m  profit 32m
1H 20 - revenue 626m  profit 137m (consist of both Q1 and Q2)

Supermax
Q4 19 - revenue 385m  profit 30m
Q1 20 - revenue 447m  profit 72m
Q2 20 - revenue ???m  profit ???m

more info for you to tikam  brows.gif
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312/72 = 4.3. Need to raise the net profit by 4.3 times.
Cant wait for QR!
HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 6 2020, 02:36 PM)
laugh.gif

not truly accurate lo ... cos I was reading couple of reports on Harta, they used 5 year average pe mean , which meant that they were using 41-43x pe multiples. Yeah, this of course is debatable but this is what's used and apparently, this is an accepted practice in the industry  rolleyes.gif

From what I recall, SuperMan estimates were above 400m

and the Target Prices are based on next year numbers. So technically, whatever and whoever reports what numbers, can easily be discounted.... debatable but it is what it is ...... so when Harta reported its numbers... yeah... it's only about 14 of its estimates IF you compare to what they are estimating for its future earnings... blah blah blah........

TopGun .... last i recall...the numbers were in 8xx million ....
it's a  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  if you were to use these stuff as your GUIDE on what's buyable and what's not ......  laugh.gif
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As investors, we generally prefer lower PE counters. As of July (in this low interest rate environment), average PE is 21.380.
Highest 22.660 in Feb 2019; Lowest 13.220 in Sep 2011

For me personally, I hunt for high ROE and low PE stocks. My general guide for a very potential counter ROE > 10, PE <10. Change from case to case basis (you need to consider the companies' future too). If the ROE is high enough, higher PE is justifiable.

Most traders dont care about PE. Because they are in there for quick gains. In trading, you make money from others.
Gloves are a very good playing ground for trading now because a lot of newbies are joining. It becomes easier for experienced traders to make money from newbies' mistakes.
HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 10:55 PM

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QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 10:48 PM)
All other glove counters are in FDA website too... Dont be misleaded to all in harta ya
HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 6 2020, 10:54 PM)
*rubs hands in glee*

Showtime.
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You need to digest the information fed more carefully lol. Dont simply simply rub hand and wait for showtime. Very dangerous.

HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 10:57 PM)
not all, supermax and TG is not in there
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5 mins i show you
HereToLearn
post Aug 6 2020, 11:00 PM

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https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh...nNumber=8043848

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh...nNumber=9680710

Be careful when taking advice from gurus, they only show you what benefits them. When they decide to take profit, they wont inform you beforehand
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 11:29 PM)
May i know when are all these FDA listings updated?
Notion kena goreng kuat bcos of the FDA news.
How come nobody goreng these FDA news for the glove companies?
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Because they are too pricy to goreng. Imagine pushing topglove up 30% vs pushing a penny stock up 30%. It takes a lot lesser fund to push penny stocks for the same percentage gain.
Penny stock is much easier for the retailers to push and for the trader syndicates (sharks/crocs or whatever you call them) to reap ez profit.

QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 11:49 PM)
also curious why BAHVEST is so slow as they are also in gold mining?
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Because sharks/crocs missed this counter out? Or they are simply accumulating now after the reap profits from other goreng counters. Moving from one counter to another counter until all fresh funds are exhausted.

In trading, what you earn = what others lose. Hope no uncle/aunty burn their entire retirement savings.
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 11:29 PM)
May i know when are all these FDA listings updated?
Notion kena goreng kuat bcos of the FDA news.
How come nobody goreng these FDA news for the glove companies?
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Because they are too pricy to goreng. Imagine pushing topglove up 30% vs pushing a penny stock up 30%. It takes a lot lesser fund to push penny stocks for the same percentage gain.
Penny stock is much easier for the retailers to push and for the trader syndicates (sharks/crocs or whatever you call them) to reap ez profit.

QUOTE(tango1800 @ Aug 6 2020, 11:49 PM)
also curious why BAHVEST is so slow as they are also in gold mining?
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Because sharks/crocs missed this counter out? Or they are simply accumulating now after the reap profits from other goreng counters. Moving from one counter to another counter until all fresh funds are exhausted.

In trading, what you earn = what others lose (or stuck at the counters). Hope no uncle/aunty burn their entire retirement savings.
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 7 2020, 09:55 AM)
The Big 4 really hammered today. Probably ppl are "withdrawing" from them to go on the "goreng counters".

LKL, HLT and Escream already recovered and in green.
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Because all these counters (gloves and pennies) are way ahead of their fundamentals. Retailers are now simply moving one fund to another, seeking to win in trade. But remember in trading, you can only win if there are people losing. Dont get trapped by the big players
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post Aug 7 2020, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(chichabom @ Aug 7 2020, 12:56 PM)
So gloves trend has passed or will they make a comeback?
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You will have higher chances of winning goreng penny stocks than gloves, because both penny and gloves are way overvalued. But to push up penny stocks, it is much easier relatively.
Also, the latest market trend is goreng penny stocks, no longer goreng glove stocks.

I dont trade, so just my 2 cents opinion from logical point of view
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post Aug 7 2020, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 7 2020, 12:59 PM)
You will have higher chances of winning goreng penny stocks than gloves, because both penny and gloves are way overvalued. But to push up penny stocks, it is much easier relatively.
Also, the latest market trend is goreng penny stocks, no longer goreng glove stocks.

I dont trade, so just my 2 cents opinion from logical point of view
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You can clearly see this with more comments now on which penny to goreng, and the top gainers (in terms of percentage wise) are no longer gloves
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post Aug 7 2020, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(crystalclearlah @ Aug 7 2020, 01:05 PM)
Local institutions exited... is a crash coming?
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I wish lol, hopefully they can trigger panic selling in all counters (not just gloves), so I have more cheap sales for fundamentally good stocks.
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(chichabom @ Aug 7 2020, 01:16 PM)
Did not dabbled into penny stocks so far just observing from afar for those goreng-ing these stocks lol. Soon any malaysians cn qualify for masterchef with his/her goreng skills haha
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I am already seeing so many successful traders sharing their profits in Instagram stories. Just a mater of time, when the bubble bursts. Meanwhile reap as much profits as u can
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(twilight_fever @ Aug 7 2020, 01:21 PM)
ruberex still ok to in? Or time to pull plug and go mui prop?
lol
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Play penny, gloves goreng potential already maxed out

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 7 2020, 01:23 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(hs_clover @ Aug 7 2020, 01:23 PM)
what stocks are categorized as penny stocks?
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Anything below RM1? The cheaper the better, especially those related to gold hype now.

My 2 cents comment. I dont trade, I invest in fundamentally strong and undervalued companies
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(hs_clover @ Aug 7 2020, 01:26 PM)
U invest long term like nestle those?
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Not nestle, nestle is fundamentally strong but overvalued.

For now, I collect the undervalued stocks (lots of banks) that ppl throw to chase high in gloves and pennies.
And a few long term undervalued stocks (with growth potential)

For long term undervalued stocks investing, watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSeEVuhmwY
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Aug 7 2020, 01:39 PM)
bank like cimb now is 5year low.. i think is actually good to buy any time. but maybe wait qr better..
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QUOTE(Speedstar1 @ Aug 7 2020, 01:43 PM)
Not time to buy into banks yet. Prices are still high. Coming quarters will show weak results which will bring down prices
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 7 2020, 01:49 PM)
u can take a look at sg and hk banks which just released their QR's.

dbs, uob, ocbc all report 40% drop in profits.

share prices were declining all the way until QR, now rebounded a bit.

so, yes, best to watch prices as they near QR.

remember, the loan moratorium - this effect will take some time to show up in QR.
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Q3 result will be the last QR that has moratorium effect, which will be published somewhere around end of this year.
With some banks almost 1/2 the share price, will the PAT after moratorium 1/2 their earnings? I am investing for a longer term (sometime after the post-moratorium and for the post low OPR value).
For PE 15 (normal valuation),
CIMB EPS = 5.75cents/Q as of current price of RM3.45, CIMB 1st quarter almost meet this (with moratorium, next 2 QR EPS is likely to be worse than this; unless trading revenue surges high like US banks)
BIMB EPS = 5.52cents/Q as of current price of RM3.31, BIMB 1st quarter already double its required EPS. *BEST BANK COUNTER in MY* So good because it is linked with Syarikat Takaful

Post moratorium earnings should be able to beat the required EPS

Agreed that it might drop more (because stock price is only as good as what the next buyer is willing to pay for), so no rush to collect. Hopefully they continue to drop more biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 7 2020, 02:17 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 7 2020, 02:09 PM)
Q3 result will be the last QR that has moratorium effect, which will be published somewhere around end of this year.
With some banks almost 1/2 the share price, will the PAT after moratorium 1/2 their earnings? I am investing for a longer term (sometime after the post-moratorium and for the post low OPR value).
For PE 15 (normal valuation),
CIMB EPS = 5.75cents/Q as of current price of RM3.45, CIMB 1st quarter almost meet this (with moratorium, next 2 QR EPS is likely to be worse than this; unless trading revenue surges high like US banks)
BIMB EPS = 5.52cents/Q as of current price of RM3.31, BIMB 1st quarter already double its required EPS. *BEST BANK COUNTER in MY* So good because it is linked with Syarikat Takaful

Post moratorium earnings should be able to beat the required EPS

Agreed that it might drop more (because stock price is only as good as what the next buyer is willing to pay for), so no rush to collect. Hopefully they continue to drop more biggrin.gif
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Meanwhile, good traders should continue to goreng penny stocks
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Aug 7 2020, 02:20 PM)
thanks for the good insight, keeping BIMB in my radar too biggrin.gif
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No worries smile.gif. Lets hope that there will be gloves sell down after moratorium and the sell down are so big, that it would be able to trigger panic selling in all other counters, so we can get things more cheaply
HereToLearn
post Aug 7 2020, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 7 2020, 02:30 PM)
Wait till Maybank announce their results. Then see if banks can go back in. I remember Alliance Bank didn't give any.
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Banks next 2 quarter results very unlikely will be good. Continue to goreng penny 1st since you are good at it

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