Very true. But even with considering the growth metrics as an input into calculations, no rational value investors will buy as a long term investment.
E.g. for Harta: 39 billion to 44 billion pieces in 2022 (13% increase in sales, which can translate to 13% increase in revenue and earnings assuming ASP do not increase)
EPS 6.49 in a quarter
By 2022, EPS = 6.49*1.13*4= 29.3348 EPS (assuming insignificant share dilution by ESOS - lazy to include this)

By 2022, with RM20, PE = 68...

I cant take ASP into account because it is not predictable. But we can calculate what ASP is needed to reduce PE to a sensible level
PE 15: ASP required = 4.5 times the current already inflated ASP
PE 20: ASP required = 3.4 times the current already inflated ASP

Just sharing, please correct me if I am wrong, happy to learn and invest if somehow I calculated wrongly and it is actually undervalued

Heres an article on value vs growth investing. In the long run, what you really earn from investment will not be too different from the company's earnings that you invested.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/like-warr...ions-2020-08-03

Yes I agree, good for trading. But I lack of proper trading skills, thats why my risk to trade is much higher than most traders, and choose to stay on sideline, watch and learn, while sharing some knowledge on value investing. This crash is the perfect opportunity to buy undervalued counters when a lot of people are throwing them for gloves/healthcare stocks

Following contrarian value investing approach, my recommended list
1. Takaful (ROE = 28, PE = 10.6, Div yield = 4.4, 5y CAGR Rev = 13, 5y CAGR PAT = 21). Dont expect share price to spike because share price is only as good as what the next buyer is willing to pay. But valuation wise, this counter beats most tech counters that already have so much attention on them. This counter is for BUY-AND-HOLD long term investors
2. Banks. They will turn good after Sept30 when people start paying loan. Loan growth increased too => more long term profit for banks https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/08/613...owth-picks-june
Hint:
(i) for quick share price spike (when economy recovers): look for banks with high CET1 ratio to reduce risk exposure and was heavily sold down from Dec 2019 for stronger rebound. Out of the 3 biggest banks in Malaysia, I pick CIMB. It had good TP before crisis and dropped significantly after crisis. This counter is for rebound sale
(ii) for longer term investment: BIMB (ROE = 13, PE = 7.5, Div yield = 4.9, 5y CAGR Rev = 13, 5y CAGR PAT = 21). This counter is for BUY-AND-HOLD long term investors
3. All the small cap counters less than 1bil market cap. They are so boring that most public dont trade them. I have few on my list, but I am not too comfortable sharing cause I dont want to unintentionally bring anyone here go holland. These counters are for BUY-AND-HOLD long term investors
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSeEVuhmwY

No comment on O&G
Avoid reits and genting for now. Still no decent profit for them. Once the pandemic is near the end/effective vaccine production is started, just go for it.
For reits, go for those with huge price drop to have potential stronger rebound like CIMB

Tenaga is still making money, I would say your counter is safe. But it didnt drop much compared to the pre-covid level, so i would say buying them now and later wouldnt make much difference as not much offer on the counter. The idea is to buy low in this crisis and counters that can make a comeback safely (not like AA, AAX), so it is wise to ignore those without offers at the moment.

Banks are NOT making much money, they will ONLY start earning close to the level like they used to after Sept30.
Good to collect now (rebound will be strong), but no rush, because there is still a heavy sell down by people to join the quick easy gain in trading. I cant time the market (I cant time when will the trading hype be over), only when the trading hype is over, they will come back and join the value counters, so just buy in slowly.
Buffet bought a lot of Bank of America shares recently https://midasletter.com/2020/08/lessons-fro...est-investment/

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 5 2020, 08:23 PM

Wow, I am seeing a good sign. More and more people are interested in long term value investing based on fundamentals. We should create an independent topic and share fundamnetal investing knowledge there.

I hope that those diam diam ubi berisi gurus will join us and share their knowledge with us too

Very true, as long as your trading capital is small relative to your networth. I highly recommend you to trade. Just dont take your entire savings to trade because if you get trapped at the top and when it dip slightly u dont want to cut loss. Then sayonara to your whole life savings later.

I also want to trade, but I dont because I dont have the skills necessary to execute good trades

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 5 2020, 08:57 PM

Dufu, Penta are great and were cheap. Now no longer cheap. New young companies with large share portion belongs to individual insiders and with good fundmental numbers except dividend yields. But new young companies dont usually pay much dividends because they reinvest their earnings for growth.

PS: the stock price was halved at some point due to share splitting (explaining more since u r a new learner), from march till now, their share price has risen about 100%, I wont buy now because the multiplier is too high, you can wait for pullback or search for others. I still have a list of 3 similar stocks like these that hasnt rise in price. And I am not a full time investor. There are still lots of undervalued gems out there. You are not looking hard enough

If you come across any, can share it with me. I am happy to analyze and invest together if I find them attractive.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 5 2020, 08:56 PM

the higher the better

Also those 2 are very good counters, but the current multiplier is too high for me to go in

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 5 2020, 09:23 PM

When goreng, share price is as good as what the next buyer is wiling to pay. So the only limitation on the share price is the amount of unexhausted price

How do you multiple quote? doesnt work

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 6 2020, 10:14 AM

From gloves to tech, then to facemask and gold, whats next?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 6 2020, 10:59 AM

Sell all. If you think it will still go up, why sell right? Price is only as good as what the next buyer is willing to pay. If you hold, you might end up trapped high at the overvalued counters

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally
If the QRs for gloves do not expectations, it is highly advisable to BOOK PROFIT (dont let the unrealized gain becomes unrealized loss).
Cant deny the possibility that in short term it might rose higher even if the QRs dont meet expectations.

But pretty sure, the last few sellers will be swimming naked when the tide goes out if the earnings do not meet expectations from the fundamental point of view

Information: ASP rose 30% for the last quarter

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 6 2020, 11:28 AM

Cause everyone who bought the gloves counters are traders. Companies' profit is not even close to the required profit.
E.g. Harta current profit is RM219.72 million/Q
Need RM479 million/Q for the next 3 quarters to meet the consensus PE of 25.
Just that public has more confident in big companies than smaller companies psychologically. Soon will fall too


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

From fundamental point of view, you are already fcked. Try to sell at at least your entry price, if cannot, cut loss
From trading point of view, no comment.

Most likely, they are fcked. But I am waiting for their QR, only can give comment. Dont want to give comments without any basis

Those are bonds. Bonds generally do well when the interest rate is low and the equity market is bad

If profit is way better than the required 876m. BUY! Else, good luck on your trading.


Might still go higher, people are not following fundamentals, just blindly following guru's advise. A lot of hardcore glove lovers will continue support the prices. The only 2 major dives will be
1. After Sept30 when moratorium ends
2. Next year, when IDSS is lifted. If the dive is not deep enough after Sept 30

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally
Sorry i rmb wrongly it is 866m not 876m, I am dealing with too many numbers in my head.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25:

Topglov - 866m
Supermx - 312m
Harta - 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE = 76 (as of RM19.82)
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m

Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

Please help me update this list on Monday. If above the requirements, they will be considered as undervalued (assuming that the share price has not increased too much), and we all should buy too.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 6 2020, 02:27 PM