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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Boon3
post Jun 2 2020, 02:01 PM

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There is a massive risk in trading in K1.

The demand of ventilators was there..but

1. At one point, it was stated US needed around 200k unit but this is the total year projection.

QUOTE
By the end of 2020, the administration is expected to take delivery of nearly 200,000 new ventilators, based on the AP’s review of current federal purchasing contracts. That would more than double the estimated 160,000 ventilators hospitals across the U.S. had before the pandemic.


http://fox11online.com/news/coronavirus/be...unexpected-glut

Indonesia at is peak, needed 180k.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/indones...ght-5865561.htm

From that link... price per ventilator is only around 20k to 25k.

And from the article, we also know that one can build one at a fraction of the cost...

And there are many other ventilator machine suppliers throughout the world....

So...pandai pandai lo


.... yeah but then the market is in a frenzy...how many will actually bother about actual facts?
Boon3
post Jun 26 2020, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(Ninjitsu @ Jun 26 2020, 11:22 AM)
BAT is comparative very cheap now. Can always pick up slowly within your budget. Maybe 5 lots? And top up more when if it ever drops further.

Any stock which pays more than 6% dividend is worth keeping la. If lower better put your $ in EPF.
*
Well if one had invested in BAT five years ago, do you think they are making or losing money?
Boon3
post Jun 26 2020, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jun 26 2020, 02:35 PM)
negative earnings growth. So making money, but making lesser and lesser with time. Maybe because too much of 'illegal' cigarette floating in the market.
*
Since 2015, BAT dividends totals...

Attached Image

2015 -- 312.00
2016 -- 278.00
2017 -- 169.00
2018 -- 155.00
2019 -- 118.00
2020 -- 50.00 **

** BAT dividend for 2020 so far is half year. Assuming same rate of payout, we are looking at total dividend of only 100.00 **
** clearly the dividends is declining like hell! **

from 2015 to currently, BAT has paid 1082.00 in dividend (ie rm10,820.00 per 1,000 shares)

.....
Price of BAT today is 10.76.

if one purchase or invested in BAT for its dividends about 5 years ago, the price of BAT on 23rd June 2015 is 60.80.

dividends collected is 1082
price today is 10.76

which means one is looking at a holding a loss of 39.22 (60.82-10.82-10.76) !!!!!

** if one purchase on 23rd June 2015, one collected less 176.00 in dividends, since these dividends were paid before June 2015!! **


so do be careful, do not simply invest just because of dividends !!! Dividend investing has its fair share of risk!!!!



invested ~ 60k... for dividends... now losing 39k cos the share price has collapsed!!!



Boon3
post Jun 26 2020, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2020, 03:14 PM)
Since 2015, BAT dividends totals...

Attached Image

2015 -- 312.00
2016 -- 278.00
2017 -- 169.00
2018 -- 155.00
2019 -- 118.00
2020 -- 50.00 **

** BAT dividend for 2020 so far is half year. Assuming same rate of payout, we are looking at total dividend of only 100.00 **
** clearly the dividends is declining like hell! **

from 2015 to currently, BAT has paid 1082.00 in dividend (ie rm10,820.00 per 1,000 shares)

.....
Price of BAT today is 10.76.

if one purchase or invested in BAT for its dividends about 5 years ago, the price of BAT on 23rd June 2015 is 60.80.

dividends collected is 1082
price today is 10.76

which means one is looking at a holding a loss of 39.22 (60.82-10.82-10.76) !!!!!

** if one purchase on 23rd June 2015, one collected less 176.00 in dividends, since these dividends were paid before June 2015!! **
so do be careful, do not simply invest just because of dividends !!!  Dividend investing has its fair share of risk!!!!
invested ~ 60k... for dividends... now losing 39k cos the share price has collapsed!!!
*
Quote: "Dividend investing has its fair share of risk!!!!"

One of the BIGGEST danger is looking at the quick snapshot of a company's financial. For BAT case, the quick snap will show that its dividend yield is more than 10%!!!

Attached Image

The 118 sen is correct BUT it's based on the trailing twelve months... and with BAT rate of dividends falling rapidly, the 118 sen looks optimistic...

So obviously, one would ask "Mana boleh bro? More than 10% la, cannot lose money one bro... "

but with BAT earnings declining rapidly, its dividend declined rapidly too.... and with it, it's share price rolled down the hill.......

Attached Image

so unless BAT earning and dividend improve for the better... perhaps it's better not to be blinded and seduced by the current Dividend Yield...




Boon3
post Jun 26 2020, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jun 26 2020, 05:42 PM)
thumbs. initially was about to dump my bonus money into this counter but after i start calculating.. eh cho to ma teh.. that dividend yield is before covid what happen with current dividend leh.. latest dividend is only 0.17 per unit.. it's close to half of it's previous payouts.
*
Looking at the dividend trend is very important. A declining dividend trend can easily drag the share price too.

People say dividend from shares is good but they tend to forget to mention that the price of the share is not a constant figure. The share price can come down one....
Boon3
post Jul 6 2020, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(onthefly @ Jul 6 2020, 11:56 AM)
LOL!

To be more precise, the blog posting was made yesterday.

And this 'alanfoo' joined lowyat ...................... yesterday.

Yesterday... oh yesterday.... whistling.gif

And all his postings are on ......................................................




LOL! Market so hot that this type of nonsense also appear on lowyat??? Lowyat forum on stocks not laku one... should post on the garbage i3 site.... cool2.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 6 2020, 12:05 PM
Boon3
post Jul 12 2020, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 12 2020, 01:20 PM)
this, i agree.
and i won't be surprised that harta will eventually surpass TG due to its higher nitrile mix.
it wud b naive to think "i got a vaccine" and all gloves and masks will not be required anymore rightaway. biggrin.gif
there are now 20 odd trial vaccines, with no results yet.
when the first one deemed workable arrives, at least 6 months is needed for mass trials.
then another 6-12 months to sort out the admin, proprietory rights, licensing, production issues.
and when a vaccine gets to be mass administered, do we think gloves and masks will no longer be used?!

WHO and some other bodies have also warned that a vaccine may only give protection for a few months, i.e. immunity is not permanent.
while the vicious little sucker keeps mutating for another vaccine to catch up.

the demand for gloves will stay strong, very strong for at least next 1.5 years, incl restocking of drawn down inventories.
new lines, expansions, new factories will rebalance the supply-demand equation.
prices of gloves and hence stock prices of glovemakers will rebalance too.
it is also wrong to think that those stock prices will rise forever.
they will peak at some point and then fall back to a "fair" value.
how much, how fast is something nobody can tell now.
the only thing to do is, if u r vested, is to keep close to the latest development and news.
and react when u must.
*
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/202...hortage/1883696

This gives doubt if capacity can run at 100%...
Boon3
post Jul 20 2020, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 20 2020, 01:34 PM)
Just want to confirm, a ratio of 2:1 means if I hold 1 lot of shares, I get 1.5 lots as bonus?
*
a 2 for 1 means, you get 2 new shares for every share held. Total shares held become 3.
a 1 for 1 means, you get 1 new share for every share held. Total shares held become 2.

If the stock trades at 10.00.

if it's a 1 for 1...
After the bonus issue, you end up having 2 shares.
BUT the stock price will be readjusted down to 5.00
remember the bolded part...

ok?

So should a bonus issue cause the share to go limit up? rolleyes.gif

Boon3
post Jul 20 2020, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 20 2020, 01:59 PM)
Probably. But greed is infinite.  whistling.gif
*

Sure. Greed is good until ...................................
Boon3
post Jul 20 2020, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 20 2020, 02:10 PM)
all the excitement....! rclxm9.gif

but wait la... entitlement date is 3Q, long way off.

how many will buy now and hold till then, wait for ex-date to pass?
more interesting now is this afternoon, how far up these announcements will push TG, spmx.

TG 25m, Spmx 19 is a given... how much further? rclxm9.gif
*
Seems like bonus means extra.... so sky's the limit...... innocent.gif laugh.gif


Boon3
post Jul 20 2020, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 20 2020, 02:17 PM)
with covid19 still in the midst, good news is hard to come by.

so, let's have some  rclxm9.gif

whatever that means! laugh.gif
*
Outsider better go smoke cigar .... tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 23 2020, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 23 2020, 01:35 PM)
This was recommend by Rakuten today..... sad.gif
*
You seriously do not need Rakuten leh...

that platform is so unreliable...
always got problem....

why take unnecessary risk? you got the market risk, so why you want to add platform risk?

BioAlpha?

This stock was on the news yesterday...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bioa...-products-china

No need Rakuten recommendation lor


Boon3
post Jul 23 2020, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 23 2020, 01:45 PM)
I got another one - PBB Sharelink. Problem with that one though is once money in, take out is a nightmare. That's what Rakuten is better. Still..... I wait see what their update is coming in next 1-2 months. Hopefully its stoploss and more earlier updates. Else, bye bye for good.
*
Try look for others...

just not worth using Rakuten
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 25 2020, 10:02 PM)
do not take that calc as firm.

1. there is a second income "div from ansell jv" - i do not know if this is once a year or once a qtr or one-off.
2. why 20x or 30x? why not 15, 18 or 35, 50? what industry no.? small players can use same no. as big-big ones?
3. annualized last qtr eps to give full yr for calc is a very rough estimate... analysts typically use a 3 or 5 year mean +1 or 0.7 std dev.
all said for small investor, better err on side of caution; rm3.25 is too optimistic, imo... 2.80-3.00 more likely.
the correct term is:

two-for-one bonus issue
*
20x and annualised x4 is Scientist Koon gold STD mah. He used it for Superman scientific estimates. So cannot argue against it one. tongue.gif

Careplus... my 3 sen .. this company WAS a lousy company which is now enjoying its day in the sun. So for me, I would not read too deeply into it.

For a punter/speculator/trader... do note the trading data...

Attached Image

The most recent 2 trading day data is really suggestive to the age old insinuation what if insiders knew of the better numbers ahead? So is there a possibility that whatever good numbers it has just reported was already priced in?

That's the risk in my opinion.. and this opinion obviously could be negated by the current cow sentiments...
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 26 2020, 02:02 PM)
thestar is a fan of TG?!
*
Well, there's the conflict of interest issue... tongue.gif

(laugh.gif ... yeah... I can talk ayam on this fella a bit too.... tongue.gif)

See, TopGun boss, was appointed by last time MO1 to sit on KWSP board... advising ... *cough* ....

and then we have KWSP ... buying shares of TopGun...

err... can meh?

but then... I can't complain too much now... cos ... got indirect conflict of interest too .... since got money in kwsp sweat.gif sweat.gif sweat.gif
and also TopGun shares so high now.... laugh.gif

Google 'top glove conflict of interest kwsp' ....... sweat.gif
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jul 26 2020, 12:46 PM)
that "WAS" is a key word

Comfort WAS in PN17 years ago.
*
Well... I am saying it as it is lo.... nothing else. (yup... I do try to watch my exact words... since market is cow cow... and I do not want to simply spit mouth water on stocks where others could be betting on! )

ok? icon_rolleyes.gif
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 26 2020, 02:53 PM)
The Azmin comment alone shows where the govt standing is. TG is their "jewel" now - if it falls, the whole KLSE may follow. Just see what happened last Thursday.
*

Err... not exactly la. If not mistaken the case of having the exports withheld would fall into his department... so naturally it's his job to resolve the situation.
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jul 26 2020, 05:30 PM)
is ok. What I trying to say is, everything is possible in market.

that's why investing is never ending process of eliminating the bad one from your portfolio, and getting in the good one.  smile.gif

Don't need to be down if miss an opportunity, there is so many out there.
*
Well like I said, take my comments as it is.

I guess all the best to you and your bet. GL
Boon3
post Jul 26 2020, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 26 2020, 08:50 PM)
Did he just proved the Edge wrong?
*
No not at all.

QUOTE
Bloomber Terminal show Top glove FY21E EPS (end aug 31) i.e. 12 months forward from now is MYR 1.242/SGD0.40 while closing price on friday is MYR 25.44/$8.40 which translates to 20.3x/21x p/e instead of 48.2x as stated by The Edge.


Bloomberg terminal showed the Forward fy21 eps to be 1242sen.

FORWARD eps means what it means. FORWARD. Which means estimate eps.

For instance, I showed a screenshot where Kenaga Forward fy21 eps to be 3996 million or 1480 sen.

Each scientist forward eps is all different.

And naturally the higher the forward eps, the higher target price.

This is how the game is played.

And it's clearly wrong to say the Edge or Bloomberg terminal is wrong.
Boon3
post Jul 27 2020, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 27 2020, 07:56 AM)
no. i was just thinking...
that commentary was written after fri, cited bloomberg using a TG eps that gives a p/e ratio of 48.
it was then pointed out that bloomberg has since used an eps of 1.242 which will now give p/e of 20.
20 is low compared to the nos. quoted for supermax and harta.
my thought was bloomberg must have gotten fresh info for the 12m fwd earnings and started to use a new eps.
if that is the case, this may have an impact on their clients this week as it implies renewed bullishness.
as pointed out by boon, this is the game all analysts play... forecasting is at best mathematical statistics, not an exact science.
we shall see this morning is this observation is relevant or not.

note also while FY2021E is very rosy, FY2022E is not.
this is the same for several other forecasts that i have seen.
i wud take that to mean they see 2021 as the peak yr for gloves in terms of revenues and margins while some vaccine, new capacity or other development will curtail it by yr beginning 2022 - a reasonable underlying assumption, i suppose.

lastly, if such a forecast will come true, what might other development emerge for TG?
what is the chief and his lieutenants thinking now?
with a few billion rm in cash at hand by mid 2021, what might they want to do?
pay all out in dividend? invest all into new gloves capacity?
or buy out some competitor? buy out some related biz co., e.g. mask, PPE, pharma?
just something to think about...
*
The bolded part... in theory, that is true.

But from my observation, this is that one area which is utterly abused...
in which, it's more like tembak numbers...

give it a few quarters...
i have saved who said what...
once all these hype is over...
you can see who is utterly tembak here and tembak there


and I will say again...
the forecasts numbers for Superman and TogGun is rather very high....
that's my view, in which I could be wrong.


TopGun has a history of acquiring plants...
Most recent was Aspion....
lol... so many questions/issues/theories... I posted b4.


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