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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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ikanbilis
post Feb 1 2016, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 1 2016, 01:01 AM)
wonder how would be the performance for the whole week  hmm.gif

can reach 4.05 level  hmm.gif
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Seriously? shocking.gif
Hansel
post Feb 1 2016, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Feb 1 2016, 12:12 AM)
It won't. But if you are buying goods from the US, then it's a all new story. Eg, the item was usd10 at 4.4 and now say ringgit is at 4.1 and the item is still usd10, you will get it a cheaper price.

Personal experience shows that online stores from US seldom increase in price. They do once a while but like once a blue moon. So if you are buying straight from US, you will get back your purchasing power. smile.gif
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Yes, of course,... buying from the US will reflect directly onto the exchange rate,... as in buying goods, going to the US, paying for tuition fees, etc,... it's obvious. I'm not talking about the US now,...

I suspect we have lost our earlier 'local purchasing power' forever after that exchange rate stunt. sad.gif
AVFAN
post Feb 1 2016, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 1 2016, 10:29 AM)
I suspect we have lost our earlier 'local purchasing power' forever after that exchange rate stunt.  sad.gif
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this will be the case.

even if rm move back to 4.0, the local purchasing power damage is done.

petrol price been coming down. do we hear biz people lowering prices?



at the base, there has been a stagnant income or income trap problem for years.

add gst, toll hikes, weak rm, etc., the pressure for price inflation has been high and will stay high.

biz people will seize any opportunity to make more profits; taxman will keep trying to get more tax.

low income groups and retirees will bear the brunt for a long time.


Ramjade
post Feb 1 2016, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 1 2016, 10:39 AM)
this will be the case.

even if rm move back to 4.0, the local purchasing power damage is done.

petrol price been coming down. do we hear biz people lowering prices?
at the base, there has been a stagnant income or income trap problem for years.

add gst, toll hikes, weak rm, etc., the pressure for price inflation has been high and will stay high.

biz people will seize any opportunity to make more profits; taxman will keep trying to get more tax.

low income groups and retirees will bear the brunt for a long time.
*
And people still don't want to maximise the tax returns. doh.gif
KTCY
post Feb 1 2016, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 31 2016, 09:23 PM)
Change to cover short position or for usage?
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converted some for usage. park USD tho. waiting and waiting. Crude oil seems going down today, a little.
Hansel
post Feb 1 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 1 2016, 10:39 AM)
this will be the case.

even if rm move back to 4.0, the local purchasing power damage is done.

petrol price been coming down. do we hear biz people lowering prices?
at the base, there has been a stagnant income or income trap problem for years.

add gst, toll hikes, weak rm, etc., the pressure for price inflation has been high and will stay high.

biz people will seize any opportunity to make more profits; taxman will keep trying to get more tax.

low income groups and retirees will bear the brunt for a long time.
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Tq, AV,...

Low wage earners will really see that they are not earning enough to cover their living expenses.

Higher wage earners will see their disposable income getting less for them to spend and to go on holidays, etc,...

Biz people who have pricing power may be able to prosper (due to lower competition outside), otherwise, will also fall into the same predicament as the higher wage earners.

Retirees who do not have income and who have stagnant income will fall into the same predicament as the low wage earners.

Investors who have not invested with the right decisions will be decimated !!!
nexona88
post Feb 1 2016, 03:35 PM

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31 Jan 2016 07:30 UTC - 1 Feb 2016 07:32 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.15955 low:4.13675 high:4.16840

BboyDora
post Feb 1 2016, 08:33 PM

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price of goods has been increased, if USD drop, the price will not drop as well.

langstrasse
post Feb 1 2016, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 1 2016, 10:39 AM)
this will be the case.

even if rm move back to 4.0, the local purchasing power damage is done.

petrol price been coming down. do we hear biz people lowering prices?
at the base, there has been a stagnant income or income trap problem for years.

add gst, toll hikes, weak rm, etc., the pressure for price inflation has been high and will stay high.

biz people will seize any opportunity to make more profits; taxman will keep trying to get more tax.

low income groups and retirees will bear the brunt for a long time.
*
There's really no incentive for businesses to reduce prices when fuel prices drop.

Worst of all is the fact that due to GST, there is no incentive for the gov to force businesses to reduce prices either - this would be the proverbial killing of the goose that laid the golden egg.

So yes, I totally agree that even if the USD/MYR exchange rate improves, our purchasing power is going to be stagnant.
icemanfx
post Feb 1 2016, 09:05 PM

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Malaysian investment funds are selling off their prime property in London in what London's Financial Times noted was a sign of 'growing financial woes' at home.

“It’s no secret that Malaysian funds [...] are having to repatriate money. We’ve definitely seen a trend of them selling,” Richard Divall, head of cross-border capital markets at real estate advisers Colliers, was quoted as saying.

“But they got into London very, very early (after the financial crisis) so they are making huge profits.”

This was also in line with the Malaysian government’s call for more local investments to spur an economy hit by plunging oil prices.

The FT reported that Retirement Fund Incorporated (KWAP) was in the midst of selling its 18-storey City of London office building which it bought in 2013 for 215 million pounds.

This is a second sale of a plum London property by KWAP, having raised 210 million pounds through the sale of One Sheldon Square in Paddington, which it co-owned with the EPF, FT reported.

EPF is also trying to sell its Fleet Street property purchased in 2011 at 148 million pounds.

Last October, Lembaga Tabung Haji sold an office building at Buckingham Palace Road for about 250 million pounds – 22 percent more than what it paid two years earlier.

Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/329002#ixzz3yvALmE1V

Believe this could be explain the recent MYR reversal of fortune.

Showtime747
post Feb 1 2016, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 31 2016, 11:36 PM)
Bro Showtime,... someting just occured to me this evening. Referring to part of Unker's statement earlier,... he said that holding on to the RM would erode purchasing power. If, say,.. even if the RM manages to strengthen, will purchasing power come back ??... Meaning, will the stronger RM vs the USD be able to buyback the same amount of goods that it used to command earlier ?
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So far, the prices of goods which showed marked increases are imported stuff. Imported food like canned food, fruits etc have increased tremendously. Gadget like computer/Iphone also badly affected. But if RM is back to 3.30, I think the market forces will bring the prices back down, although it may take time

As for local stuff with local ingredient and content, I think the rise is not so much. For food like wan tan mee and nasi lemak, I can see the price rise when GST is implemented in April. But when RM depreciated to 4.40 from June, price of those local stuff still largely remained the same

Just my personal observation...
SUSWhoCaresMyName
post Feb 1 2016, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Feb 1 2016, 08:33 PM)
price of goods has been increased, if USD drop, the price will not drop as well.
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price increase good la... every country also want target inflation but not able... we only lack strong myr now, if strong inflation + strong myr = strong economy
TSwil-i-am
post Feb 1 2016, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Feb 1 2016, 02:06 PM)
converted some for usage. park USD tho. waiting and waiting. Crude oil seems going down today, a little.
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MYR could start to depreciate tis week
KTCY
post Feb 2 2016, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Feb 1 2016, 11:17 PM)
MYR could start to depreciate tis week
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yeah. saw smile.gif but it's ok. My USD is ready in Msia. Anytime can convert to MYR to gain the benefits.
SUSthe99percent1
post Feb 2 2016, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(langstrasse @ Feb 1 2016, 08:52 PM)
There's really no incentive for businesses to reduce prices when fuel prices drop.

Worst of all is the fact that due to GST, there is no incentive for the gov to force businesses to reduce prices either - this would be the proverbial killing of the goose that laid the golden egg.

So yes, I totally agree that even if the USD/MYR exchange rate improves, our purchasing power is going to be stagnant.
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Fuel prices do not drop..

The market price for crude oil may drop, but the cost to extract and process the oil to become fuel remains high..

Why do u think businesses such as chevron, etc are cutting production and jobs? Because it doesn't make sense to extract oil anymore. It's not profitable.

Which makes the push for clean energy more promising.

Hansel
post Feb 2 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 1 2016, 10:41 PM)
So far, the prices of goods which showed marked increases are imported stuff. Imported food like canned food, fruits etc have increased tremendously. Gadget like computer/Iphone also badly affected. But if RM is back to 3.30, I think the market forces will bring the prices back down, although it may take time

As for local stuff with local ingredient and content, I think the rise is not so much. For food like wan tan mee and nasi lemak, I can see the price rise when GST is implemented in April. But when RM depreciated to 4.40 from June, price of those local stuff still largely remained the same

Just my personal observation...
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Thanks Showtime,.. For us urban folks, I would think the inflation effect is definitely 'killing'. I can feel the prices of goods and services around me rising throughout the whole of last year.
ikanbilis
post Feb 2 2016, 08:00 PM

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This will affect the ringgit negatively?

Feb 1, 2016 SINGAPORE — Singapore announced Monday that it has seized a large number of bank accounts in a probe into alleged misappropriations related to an indebted Malaysian state investment fund.
Investigations of “possible money laundering and other offenses carried out in Singapore” in connection with the 1MDB fund have been continuing since mid-2015, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Commercial Affairs Department, which polices white-collar crime.
Singapore is working closely with authorities in Malaysia, Switzerland and the United States in the investigation, the agencies said in a joint statement.
“In connection with these investigations, we have sought and are continuing to seek information from several financial institutions, are interviewing various individuals, and have seized a large number of bank accounts,” they said.
“As investigations are still ongoing, we are not able to provide more details at this stage.”

Singapore’s stable economy and openness to foreign investment have made it a prominent destination for businesses in the region and farther abroad.
External investigations into 1MDB have indicated that $4 billion, earmarked for investment in economic and social development projects in Malaysia, may have been misappropriated from state-owned companies.
Switzerland’s top prosecutor has sought Malaysia’s help after an investigation confirmed that some money was transferred into accounts held in Switzerland. The accounts were held by various former Malaysian public officials and both former and current public officials from the United Arab Emirates.
The Swiss office said in a statement Friday that criminal proceedings were opened last August against two former 1MDB officials and unknown individuals on suspicion of bribery of foreign public officials, misconduct in public office, money laundering and criminal mismanagement.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who formed 1MDB in 2009, became embroiled in the scandal after documents were leaked last year suggesting some $700 million deposited into his accounts may have come from entities linked to 1MDB.
Malaysian Attorney General Mohamed Apandi Ali cleared Najib of any wrongdoing last Tuesday, saying it was a private donation from the Saudi royal family.
Apandi said Saturday that his office will cooperate with Swiss authorities. 1MDB is mired in 42 billion ringgit ($10.1 billion) in debt and has been selling its assets to clear it.
nexona88
post Feb 2 2016, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Feb 2 2016, 08:00 PM)
This will affect the ringgit negatively?
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


looks like big yes cry.gif

1 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC - 2 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.21630 low:4.15006 high:4.22225


KTCY
post Feb 2 2016, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 2 2016, 08:53 PM)
[/spoiler]

looks like big yes cry.gif

1 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC - 2 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.21630 low:4.15006 high:4.22225
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crude oil drop punya pasal la.
ikanbilis
post Feb 2 2016, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 2 2016, 08:53 PM)
[/spoiler]

looks like big yes cry.gif

1 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC - 2 Feb 2016 12:50 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.21630 low:4.15006 high:4.22225
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Do you really expect the Ringgit to outperform with the current Finance Minister? blink.gif


http://www.financeasia.com/News/405600,naj...ister-2016.aspx



For the second year running, FinanceAsia has ranked the finance ministers of the Asia-Pacific region’s 12 largest economies.

FinanceAsia considers several factors when thinking about how to compare the performance of these men over the past 12 months. The role’s responsibilities and powers vary between countries but each minister contributes to fiscal policy and the budget, accesses capital markets, regulates financial institutions, and drives reform. Investor perceptions are one way to view how good a job they are doing, particularly when times are tough.

But the hardest criterion is independence. Most finance ministers serve at the pleasure of their prime ministers, presidents, or military dictators. Their ability to get things done requires political deftness, mastery of policy, sway over the bureaucracy, and the will to fight for the public interest.

Asia developed a post-1997 reputation for quality government, a perception now being put to the test as the Chinese economy slows and dollar strengthens.

For last year's results, click here.

The vast withdrawal of capital from emerging markets makes it all the more imperative for Asia’s finance ministers to pursue good governance, sensible structural reform, and sound finances.
related

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Finance Minister of the Year — Part 2
CIMB cuts Hong Kong IB, cash equities jobs
RHB prices rights issue
High hopes pinned on fintech in Malaysia

Unfortunately, the overall quality of the governments we cover has mostly deteriorated, led by the lowest ranked minister in our study. Take a bow ...

Ranked No12: Najib Razak, Malaysia

Last year was a very challenging year for the Malaysian economy. The country suffered a double whammy of political scandal that enveloped state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and Prime Minister Najib Razak, who also happens to be Malaysia’s finance minister. In addition, it endured a collapse in the price of its key export, oil.

1MDB first started to attract unwelcome attention in early 2015 after struggling to settle a RM2 billion ($563 million) bridge loan. The funding crunch was an embarrassment for Najib, who chairs the fund’s advisory board and expanded its remit on coming to office in 2009, to help turn Kuala Lumpur into a financial hub.

Then The Wall Street Journal reported that nearly $700 million had been transferred to the prime minister’s personal bank account from the Saudi Arabian royal family, prompting a series of investigations. The identity of the donor and the reason for the donation was never disclosed, but it triggered demands for Najib to step down and cast doubts over about the country’s commitment to good governance. After seven months, investigators said in January that they had found no evidence of wrongdoing by Najib.

The long-running political crisis has taken up time that could have been better spent addressing the country’s acute economic troubles and made Malaysia appear even less attractive as an investment destination. According to Moody’s, foreign investors withdrew approximately RM24.5 billion ($5.83 billion) from the country in the third quarter of 2015. The ringgit also depreciated by 19% last year to its lowest level since 1997.

The main task for Najib will be whether he can manage down the budget deficit to 3.1% of GDP in 2016 from 3.2% in 2015 in the face of a further slowdown in Chinese economic growth and low oil prices. Najib's stated aim is to balance the books by 2020, which would be no mean feat for a country that has run a deficit since 1998.

In response to falling oil prices and weakening exports, the prime minister presented a revised 2016 budget plan in January. The original plan had assumed an average oil price of $48 per barrel, more than 50% above current levels. The "recalibrated" budget sets a minimum price of $25.

Rating agency Moody’s, which cut the outlook on Malaysia’s A3 sovereign rating to stable from positive, has estimated that Malaysia’s fiscal deficit will likely widen to 3.4% of GDP if the oil price averages $34 per barrel. Other economists think the fiscal deficit has the potential to blow out to 4% of GDP if things stay the same.

To help lessen its reliance on oil export revenues, the government introduced a goods and services tax in April in the face of public opposition. In the short term, though, that’s hurting consumer confidence, by biting into the spending power of Malaysian households.

The country also joined the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal in October to gain greater access to new markets.

How the embattled Najib can improve Malaysia’s reputation remains to be seen, but before then he must be ready to figure out a plan to tame the budget deficit while external weaknesses continue to crimp government revenue.

This post has been edited by ikanbilis: Feb 2 2016, 09:32 PM

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