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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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Showtime747
post Dec 3 2015, 06:53 PM

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Oil 39.94

RM appreciates from last week's closing price

Something is happening behind the scene. Or it must be some magic in play rclxub.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 3 2015, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2015, 06:57 PM)
Illusion is in progress  brows.gif
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Really cannot brain tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 3 2015, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 07:03 PM)
no la.. crude now 40.50, brent 43.40.

we'll have to see post dec 4 opec meeting outcome.

for now, that is remnant effect of 1mdb power asset sale to foreigner, will be there until cash is received in jan... march?

can sell more prime assets like that to any foreigner, rm will surely improve.

which one is next up for sale "save them"?
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Just when I thought RM has correlation to certain commodity and news, it worked just the other way round tongue.gif

I have seen many economists from different banks telling the same reason previously, but when their theory doesn't work, they come up with another theory to justify the direction. Those bankers really SKL tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 3 2015, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2015, 09:06 PM)
Most of the time, market forces overwrite fundamentals
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Ya. Most of the time market reacts the opposite. If not, economists will be the richest person tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 4 2015, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 10:42 PM)
just shout when i can buy usd1 with rm4.15.

on standby. laugh.gif
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You sure you don't want to wait for 4.10 ? tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2015, 05:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM)
no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
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While we talk about this as jokes, but "someone" actually think so and sleep very well with a fat woman beside him tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2015, 09:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 07:26 PM)
as an salaried worker and a consumer, i want as strong a currency as possible - greatest purchasing power. but my employer may restrain my wage increase.

as an exporter, i want a weak currency to beat my competitors but that makes me lazy, since there is no need to improve on productivity and costs.

as a gomen, i want a balance but very often, i can't do it or don't know. so f it! laugh.gif
really, why is it so darn easy for a currency to fall and so darn hard for it to rise?

because even lazy idiots know how to make currencies fall whereas it takes smart responsible brains to make a currency strong and yet sustainable.

that can only be true because if the reverse is true, there is no need for good brains and good governance. we go back to the dark ages. tongue.gif
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That is very true thumbup.gif

To keep the economy and RM at healthy level, it takes a lot of effort. To destroy it, we just need some idiots, as proven tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 21 2015, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Dec 13 2015, 03:57 PM)
where the quote again in December 2015 will drop till 4.8?
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Unker dreamer101 has extended his prediction to Jan 2016 when TPPA is scheduled to sign (according to him). Don't know whether TPPA is still relevant to RM or not now. But let's give unker benefit of doubt

On hindsight, looks like those who stick to ASx in Sept/Oct made a good decision to stay put. If they ditched RM and invest in US$, they would have bought at the peak and made a loss of about -3.3% in 3 months.

Again, there should be timeframe to a prediction. Only then we can judge the prediction is good or bad like in this case
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 04:59 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 6 2016, 10:08 PM)
walao... this is bad.. lost 2% in <24 hours. sweat.gif

5 Jan 2016 14:00 UTC - 6 Jan 2016 14:02 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.42450 low:4.34050 high:4.42590

what happened to "strong fundamentals"?

what happened to the "magic"?

hey, where is showtime747?!! tongue.gif
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I am still around tongue.gif

Over the last few months, the RM behaved like "magic". When it should depreciate/appreciate due to oil price/political circus show, RM moved the opposite. I have been talking about it, but you don't believe. "Something behind" was happening which caused the "magic" in the last few months tongue.gif

Most people only believe in the market machanism (fundamental). And analyst's comment after the event can always "explain" why it happened. When RM depreciated, analysts say that is because oil price dropped below $50. But when oil price dropped below $40 and RM appreciated instead, the analysts got something else for explanation thumbup.gif

Analysts can always explain (but only after the event). But in some cases, it was the hidden hands which manupilated the market and caused the magic. If everything moves according to a set rules like the analysts say, then it will be easy to make money in the market. The analysts don't need the analyst job anymore.

The magic actually come from the rumour on "the company". The 1st part of the rumour came true exactly according to script. Now let's see the second part, which is even more "earth shaking", will come true. If that happens, it should occur before GE14. Maybe 1 year before mid 2017, or even earlier ?

For those who missed the opportunity to convert RM to USD at 4.2xxx, I think there will always be another opportunity. But the usual problem is when RM back up to 4.2xxx, he will wait for 4.1xxx instead tongue.gif Usual psychology and that's why people miss boats.

Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 10:39 AM)
if u mean the magic was selling national assets and land, ok... can say u were right. biggrin.gif
Magic --> cannot be explained by the usual fundamentals tongue.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 10:39 AM)
earth shaking next move... i hope it's not selling klcc or klia. come think of it, likely candidates should be MAS, Proton and other big perennial cash sucking blackholes and where N may want to get back at M??

the last time i bought, it was 4.30. i was waiting for <4.20 to buy more but it never happened. so, i continue to wait...
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This was the rumour I received which was posted here in early October when RM appreciated from 4.4xxx to 4.1xxx while oil price remained at around $45 during the period

QUOTE
Insider of the highest sources claims the political debacles encountered recently will be solved in the coming few weeks with concrete master plan set out that all assets of the Company have been ear picked for sale and negotiation with concrete purchasers are in very advance stages. Total proceeds from the sale will be more than enough to settle all outstanding debts, giving some sizeable profits, and thus eliminates the threat to the banking system and the currency. The most shocking breakthrough is a succession plan has already been agreed upon at the highest level by all interested parties and a smooth transition will be carried out to minimise damages to the image of the organisation, thus paving the way for next general election in order to consolidate the position of the new team.

Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 11:40 AM)
Good points.. AV and good to see you again, Showtime,... in terms of converting RM to USD, if, say, the USD is too high, I tend to take another route : I will convert from RM to SGD first, since the conversion is still 'affordable'. SGD too has depreciated in tandem with the RM against the USD.

Confidence in the SGD is always there. Sooner or later,.. the SGD will regain its strength. It's always okay to keep the SGD.
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Good strategy for short term.

In long term, I am converting RM to USD/SGD/AUD/GBP regardless of the rates. With not so good prospect on the malaysian economy (and hence RM) over long term, averaging out over the years will still provide forex gains


Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:01 PM)
this one... very fluid la... already thrown around for some time.

we will just see what we will see.
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The 1st part of the rumour came true.

Now is the second part. Like the first part when I post up here, most people don't believe "the company's" problem can be solved in such short time. But it did

So, now the second part is also very hard to believe. Not many believe he will relinquish his post now. But overall for his organisation, it would be better off with him vacating his seat
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:21 PM)
that is what is what most people who have the resources and the vision will do.

a currency can only appr if good investments are made with sound policies years ago to bring increasing income, trade surplus, fdi, fx inflows in the future. it does not and cannot happen by doing nothing or the opposite or just becos some loud mouths/worm brains call for it.

it certainly won't appr by wasting funds, ignoring missing billions, borrowing more or selling prime national assets.

is it that hard to understand? tongue.gif
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Old bird like you understand the whole picture thumbup.gif

But you can see in this thread there are many people still asking whether it is a good idea to convert their RM to forex. They find it hard to understand the gloomy future they are facing doh.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 7 2016, 04:53 PM)
Today it is a strange day for RM.

Oil plunges severely.
Most currencies drop against USD.
But RM rise against USD.
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You call it "strange". I call it "magic" tongue.gif

This happened before many times just last 2-3 months ago. It is "fundamentally defying" due to "hidden hands".
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 05:03 PM)
5pm. laugh.gif
6 Jan 2016 09:00 UTC - 7 Jan 2016 09:00 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.40081 low:4.37790 high:4.43676
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6.38pm laugh.gif

6 Jan 2016 10:30 UTC - 7 Jan 2016 10:35 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.39006 low:4.38230 high:4.43676
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 7 2016, 06:38 PM)
Hope you don't mind me asking, how are you going to convert your money to USD, GBP? Are you going.to fly there and open an account there?
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You can open foreign currency accounts with the banks in malaysia. After that, you can buy/sell at bank rates, or use DCI to convert at spot rate

I also have accounts in other countries. The malaysian branch of the banks helped me to open those overseas accounts so I don't need to fly there. But I think you have to have certain minimum amount to do that. After opening those accounts, you can transfer funds between those overseas account via internet/phone/email/fax/whatsapp depending on the banks' SOP
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 06:40 PM)
The Msian mkt is always like that,... always have hidden hands im play,... seldom following fundamentals. Anyway, I'm sure even 'hidden hands' will run out of bullets in the long run.
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Couldn't wait for them to finish their business shakehead.gif

RM should have breached 4.50 easily if everything go according to fundamentals
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 7 2016, 06:59 PM)
End of the day, if you are not rich, you cannot open those account in another country from Malaysia. sad.gif If opening a foreign account in malaysia, it still makes no difference as the money is still in malaysian bank.

Looks like for not so rich people, the only hope is to fly there and open from there. sad.gif Rather than having a certain limit with certain banks.
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Use foreign banks in Malaysia as compromise. For small amount it is not worth the trouble to fly out of the country to open bank accounts.

Anyway, I don't think the financial system in Malaysia will collapse. So banks in Malaysia are still safe.
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 7 2016, 07:10 PM)
Please don't. Let Aud sink to 0.65 first..... smile.gif
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You have SGD holdings so you no problem lah tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 7 2016, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 07:14 PM)
The biz will never be finished.

As long the crooks get the blind support, it will be the same or worse.

I agree 4.50 will be the average for next 2 years; the fundamentals are getting weaker as more money and talent get chased out.

When we get nearer to ge14 in 2018, there will be some manipulated movement attempted.

But alas, small economies with little to show can't do much.
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Exactly. With the current development, it's just a matter of time RM will drop further.

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