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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2015, 09:19 AM, updated 10y ago

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Continue from
v1 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956/+2500
v2 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3704916

2014
8/9/2014 - 3.1740
2/12/2014 - 3.4240
31/12/2014 - 3.4965

2015
2/1/2015 - 3.5160
31/3/2015 - 3.7035
30/6/2015 - 3.7730
31/7/2015 - 3.8245
28/8/2015 - 4.2000
8/9/2015 - 4.3385 (v2 commenced)
30/9/2015 - 4.3955
30/10/2015 - 4.2960
30/11/2015 - 4.2640
2/12/2015 - 4.2325 (v3 commenced)
16/12/2015 - 4.3250
17/12/2015 - 4.3135 (US Fed Reserve increase int rate)
31/12/2015 - 4.2935

2016
4/1/2016 - 4.3490
29/1/2016 - 4.1550
29/2/2016 - 4.2050
31/3/2016 - 3.9020
29/4/2016 - 3.9035
31/5/2016 - 4.1290
30/6/2016 - 4.0225

*29/9/2015 - 4.4565 (Highest)

This post has been edited by wil-i-am: Jul 4 2016, 08:58 AM
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2015, 09:42 PM

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BNM closing rate on 1/12 n 2/12 is the same @ 4.2325
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Dec 3 2015, 12:03 PM)
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...abilise-ringgit

I bet that China will get the HSR project too. Would that help too?
*
I wud reckon HSR project is a given to China
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 02:31 AM)
in a perfect storm, yes.

crude 35, fed rate hike(s), low gdp growth, int rate cut, incr budget deficit, more debt, more wastage, more songlap... tongue.gif
crude now about to crash below 40.
*
Time to long USD
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2015, 06:53 PM)
Oil 39.94

RM appreciates from last week's closing price

Something is happening behind the scene. Or it must be some magic in play  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
*
Illusion is in progress brows.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 08:59 PM

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2 Dec 2015 12:50 UTC - 3 Dec 2015 12:56 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.21599 low:4.21469 high:4.26173

Gonna test 4.20 tomorrow
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2015, 09:02 PM)
Just when I thought RM has correlation to certain commodity and news, it worked just the other way round  tongue.gif

I have seen many economists from different banks telling the same reason previously, but when their theory doesn't work, they come up with another theory to justify the direction. Those bankers really SKL  tongue.gif
*
Most of the time, market forces overwrite fundamentals
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 10:42 PM)
just shout when i can buy usd1 with rm4.15.

on standby. laugh.gif
*
Y shout when can PM tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 3 2015, 11:04 PM)
Shhh. Don't say anything. Last time we say RM4.10, straight away go up
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Did u capitalize?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2015, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 11:40 PM)
don't buy fx, keep rm - the banks are really keen to have yr money.

fd rates going higher!
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Do u think the stated int rate can beat inflation rate?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2015, 08:11 AM

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3 Dec 2015 00:00 UTC - 4 Dec 2015 00:07 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.20497 low:4.20400 high:4.26002

Gonna break 4.20 resistance soon...
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2015, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 4 2015, 08:29 AM)
I am betting it will run out of steam soon as seen previously. sad.gif
*
Past trend is not an indicative of future trend brows.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2015, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:55 AM)
while waiting for rm to go to 4.10 or 4.40, don't lose sight of the broader markets if investing in foreign equities.

european bourses, dow, japan, china all in a rout last night/today - developments in ecb and fed.

if the rout continues, getting cheaper fx but losing in these equities is bad news while paying a bit more in fx to buy them at good discounts can be rewarding in the end.
*
Just ignore all the daily drama(s) n stick to yo investment plan n strategy
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2015, 10:24 PM

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Awaiting US payrolls data n outcome of OPEC meeting today
Tis will dictate the movement of MYR next week
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:53 PM)
Earlier, stock futures edged higher after the 8:30 a.m., ET, November jobs report beat headline expectations with creation of 211,000 and showed an increase in wages and continued low unemployment, as expected. The number of jobs created in October and September were also revised higher.

good jobs data = market confidence or fed rate hike or both? biggrin.gif

dow +160.
*
DJIA up 369 or 2.12%
Oil tumble 0.94 or 2.29% to 40.14
Next week will b interesting for MYR
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM)
no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
*
Plus increase price n remove current subsidies
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 11:05 AM)
with opec stand, crude is heading below 40.

with last jobs data, dec 16 is almost sure of seeing a rate hike.

but i still see rm sticking around 4.2-4.3.

until some new and major development.

i don't how what is best to invest in for now... but for sure, not o&g counters in bursa. tongue.gif
i will not be surprised if new taxes get introduced in 2016.
*
Despite the certainty in rate hike, most economist/fund mgr/analyst have 80% confidence level ony
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:25 PM)
Just for info, I hang out in some international forums, even Canadian are complaining of the strong USD. Even they are looking whether US will increase rates.

So by increasing the rates > USD will increase > USD become too expensive > less demands > bad for economy?

I am still thinking and hoping US will just maintained. How many times they cry wolf already.
*
Finally Janet remove procrastination from the dictionary brows.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:35 PM)
If still cry wolf how?
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Simple...
Song continue to sing and Dance continue to jump brows.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 07:26 PM)
as an salaried worker and a consumer, i want as strong a currency as possible - greatest purchasing power. but my employer may restrain my wage increase.
*
Purchasing power of salaried worker will b lesser next yr as a lot of Co freeze increment cry.gif
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