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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post Dec 2 2015, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(norasarah @ Dec 2 2015, 10:52 AM)
anyway RM is increasing abit la!! it take time.. our economy will be better at 2016.
I guess najib had fullfil his promise.. give him 6 month period on June
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maybe 1mdb asset sale to foreigners explained rm 4.3->4.2 = 2.3%.

if did nothing but just go, recovery could have doubled or tripled.

QUOTE(justaregularjoe @ Dec 2 2015, 10:55 AM)
i am talking about both currency, look at how yuan is entering sdr and the brics nation buying tonnes and tonnes of gold. this will do no good for the future for the U.S. luckily our leader sapu all, we have lots of deal with china too, this might be better for rm for the long run, but who knows when the next 1mdb will come and price of goods and services will just keep increasing.
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not sure what u are proposing or just venting. biggrin.gif

all currencies depr over time against a basket of goods for consumption - that's an inherent part of our man-made capitalist system can sustains on growth and inflation.

gold and diamonds are no guarantee as we have seen enough.

stocks and bonds have risks.

can't be overly depressed.... just have to keep going, try to incr earnings and diversify as much as possible.



AVFAN
post Dec 2 2015, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 2 2015, 04:00 PM)
ForexTime Ltd, an international foreign exchange broker, has suggested Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) increase its interest rates to encourage more investors to hold more money in the market and strengthen the ringgit.

Vice President of Corporate Development and Chief Market Analyst, Jameel Ahmad, said once the ringgit rebounded, it could limit the pressure on the currency, the local economy and make goods importation cheaper.
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that makes economic sense but not political sense as millions of voting m'sians have hundreds of billions of debt to repay.

everything here now is driven by politics. so, will not happen.

meaning the rm is going nowhere. 4.20-4.30.

until fed hike becomes reality and/or oil price moves dramatically.
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 02:31 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 2 2015, 11:45 PM)
Morgan Stanley forecasts that USD/MYR will hit 5.0 in 2016  shocking.gif  ohmy.gif
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in a perfect storm, yes.

crude 35, fed rate hike(s), low gdp growth, int rate cut, incr budget deficit, more debt, more wastage, more songlap... tongue.gif



crude now about to crash below 40.
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Dec 3 2015, 12:03 PM)
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...abilise-ringgit

I bet that China will get the HSR project too. Would that help too?
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redshirts approve or not? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2015, 06:53 PM)
Oil 39.94

RM appreciates from last week's closing price

Something is happening behind the scene. Or it must be some magic in play  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
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no la.. crude now 40.50, brent 43.40.

we'll have to see post dec 4 opec meeting outcome.

for now, that is remnant effect of 1mdb power asset sale to foreigner, will be there until cash is received in jan... march?

can sell more prime assets like that to any foreigner, rm will surely improve.

which one is next up for sale "save them"?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 3 2015, 07:10 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 3 2015, 07:06 PM)
Bandar Malaysia?

2 foreign parties & 1 GLC in final bidding  blush.gif
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actually can sell more, anything, big chance now.


support very good, new draconian laws as silencer.

all are happy, only pendatangs complaining. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2015, 09:02 PM)
Just when I thought RM has correlation to certain commodity and news, it worked just the other way round  tongue.gif

I have seen many economists from different banks telling the same reason previously, but when their theory doesn't work, they come up with another theory to justify the direction. Those bankers really SKL  tongue.gif
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just shout when i can buy usd1 with rm4.15.

on standby. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 11:40 PM

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don't buy fx, keep rm - the banks are really keen to have yr money.

fd rates going higher!

QUOTE
(1) Affin 15 months at 4.6% - valid until end of Dec
(2) OCBC 12 months at 4.5% - valid until end of Dec
(3) UOB 12 months at 4.4% - valid until end of Dec
(4) RHB 15 months at 4.4% - valid until March 2016
(5) Public Bank 12 months at 4.3% - valid until end of Dec

AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2015, 11:48 PM)
Do u think the stated int rate can beat inflation rate?
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no, i don't think so.

but that's not the point. biggrin.gif

the point is... if you serioulsy think rm will strengthen good, put in fd with 4.5% now.

rm strengthen, you can buy more usd in a yr's time.

compared to buying now, pay more rm and get no int, correct? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 10:55 AM

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while waiting for rm to go to 4.10 or 4.40, don't lose sight of the broader markets if investing in foreign equities.

european bourses, dow, japan, china all in a rout last night/today - developments in ecb and fed.

if the rout continues, getting cheaper fx but losing in these equities is bad news while paying a bit more in fx to buy them at good discounts can be rewarding in the end.
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 11:25 AM

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see how similar rm is with aud?! tongue.gif

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 4 2015, 11:14 AM)
--Yesterday’s release of October trade figures reinforced this view. The trade deficit came in a $3.3 billion for the month. This was a 38% deterioration on the September deficit of $2.4 billion.

--Thank goodness for the mining production boom, eh? (o&g/plantations/1.5mil banglas)

--All those hundreds of billions of dollars of investment led to an increase in production that is…still generating massive monthly trade deficits. (msia deficits too)

--The miracle in all this is just how the Aussie dollar is holding up? The fact that it has actually increased since the late August low around US$0.69 is impressive. (since aud/rm is pretty constant, can say rm4.20 is impressive)

--It tells you that despite our ongoing trade, current account and government budget deficits, we’re still pulling in ample money from offshore. The Financial Review has a decent explanation for what might be propping the Aussie up right now. (bils in donations, some rm coming back)

‘Corporate deals, driven partly by the weakness of the Australia dollar, have also helped the currency defy the relentless slump in commodity prices, according to Westpac. (china deals, china promises)

‘The bank's global head of market strategy Robert Rennie said foreign interest in Australian companies, recently shown again in last week's $10.3 billion takeover of the NSW electricity grid Transgrid by a foreign-led consortium, was one of the factors offsetting the drag on the local unit by slumping iron ore and coal prices. (imdb power asset sale)

‘Another is a surge in demand for Australian government debt because of the securities' yield spread over returns on most other advanced countries' debt.’

--If that’s the case, this is only a short term boost. Expect the Aussie to start falling again soon. (really?!)

--And it makes you wonder at what point lower interest rates might start to damage Australia. I mean, we’re only attracting offshore capital because of the healthy interest rate differential. (mgs is good demand at 4.2% yield)

--If the RBA cuts rates again next year, at what point would foreigners say Aussie rates no longer entice us? It’s an interesting question to ponder for a housing addicted, debtor nation like Australia. (will debtor nation msia start to cut int rates soon?)

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This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 4 2015, 11:28 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 4 2015, 11:28 AM)
However, our GDP growth figures are better than Aus. How ar?
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must look at inflation figures too.

i have not looked closely - aussie lower growth accompanied by lower and more accurate inflation?
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 4 2015, 04:38 PM)
You sure you don't want to wait for 4.10 ?  tongue.gif
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4.15 already difficult la... laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 10:20 PM

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Oil prices fell on Friday after sources said OPEC had agreed to roll over its policy of maintaining crude production in order to retain market share and raise its output ceiling.
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2015, 10:24 PM)
Awaiting US payrolls data n outcome of OPEC meeting today
Tis will dictate the movement of MYR next week
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Earlier, stock futures edged higher after the 8:30 a.m., ET, November jobs report beat headline expectations with creation of 211,000 and showed an increase in wages and continued low unemployment, as expected. The number of jobs created in October and September were also revised higher.

good jobs data = market confidence or fed rate hike or both? biggrin.gif

dow +160.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 4 2015, 10:40 PM)
yesterday I heard some source say they wanna cut some output, now say maintain shakehead.gif  more oversupply flood the market  doh.gif
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hard to cut... who wants to cut and lose revenue?

iran coming onstream soon with 1 mil bpd, indonesia rejoins opec with 780 kbpd - output ceiling has to be increased.

enjoy cheap petrol for some more months. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 4 2015, 10:57 PM)
more bad news for gomen & petronas blush.gif
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no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:56 AM)
DJIA up 369 or 2.12%
Oil tumble 0.94 or 2.29% to 40.14
Next week will b interesting for MYR
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with opec stand, crude is heading below 40.

with last jobs data, dec 16 is almost sure of seeing a rate hike.

but i still see rm sticking around 4.2-4.3.

until some new and major development.

i don't how what is best to invest in for now... but for sure, not o&g counters in bursa. tongue.gif


QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:58 AM)
Plus increase price n remove current subsidies
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i will not be surprised if new taxes get introduced in 2016.
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:25 PM)
Just for info, I hang out in some international forums, even Canadian are complaining of the strong USD. Even they are looking whether US will increase rates.

So by increasing the rates > USD will increase > USD become too expensive > less demands > bad for economy?

I am still thinking and hoping US will just maintained. How many times they cry wolf already.
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canadian $ is whacked big time like aud and rm - because the canadian economy is commodity based too - oil, minerals with little else to export.

usd is strong and "expensive" because of the confidence it commands as the #1 currency, with no near #2. the euro is next big but is in worse shape than usd.

there is a massive problem brewing - years of easing and cheap debt, i.e. near zero interest rates. this is good to keep the broader economy going but... very high risks now for junk bonds and other high leverage biz. and some sectors are suffering, .e.g pension funds and insurance cos. that rely on fixed income. if a couple of these big ones fail, it will roil markets and threaten the economy, like the lehman collapse in 2008. the longer they "cry wolf", the less time than they have to normalize rates in time so as not to risk some major failure and meltdown that will spread to rest of the globe.

it is not a easy job for yellen and fed. still, the job nos. can't get better, inflation will not go much higher. it is almost certain rate will be hiked on dec 16. question is if it will be 25bps and what comments follow.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 5 2015, 01:43 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 01:43 PM)
What do you mean by less time to normalise rates?
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it is a huge economy. they don't raise rates piecemeal as and when they like.

there is a plan to go from A to B to C to D within X years or Y months, i.e. targets.

google bloomberg, cnbc... there are many articles with charts and dots that explain what the fed targets are.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 5 2015, 01:48 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 01:54 PM)
Normalise rates = increasing rates?

So if they increase rates, USD sure will go up and MYR sure will drop right? Will the effect  be permanent (remain high) like few years or just a few days like what happen to MYR strengthening power (increase and decrease quickly)?
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"normalized" means a balanced int rate regime in a growing sustainable economy. it is a target, a moving target.

how usd fares with other currencies is relative.

at this time, commodities prices (oil, gas, iron ore, copper, even milk) are at multi year lows, china can't buy more to make more to sell more.

so, commodity export dependent currencies continue to get hammered. non-commodity but consuming countries are enjoying strong currencies - thailand, japan, even singapore.

as the oil rout continues, even saudi is now said to be considering a lower peg of the riyal to the usd. also, will see if brunei can hold the peg to the sgd.


if fed keeps hiking rates to normalize as per plan... the rm will be expected to go down, of course. add low oil/palm oil prices, continued big spending/wastage and incr debt, u already know the direction.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 5 2015, 02:15 PM

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