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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 10:20 PM

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Oil prices fell on Friday after sources said OPEC had agreed to roll over its policy of maintaining crude production in order to retain market share and raise its output ceiling.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2015, 10:24 PM

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Awaiting US payrolls data n outcome of OPEC meeting today
Tis will dictate the movement of MYR next week
nexona88
post Dec 4 2015, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:20 PM)
Oil prices fell on Friday after sources said OPEC had agreed to roll over its policy of maintaining crude production in order to retain market share and raise its output ceiling.
*
yesterday I heard some source say they wanna cut some output, now say maintain shakehead.gif more oversupply flood the market doh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2015, 10:24 PM)
Awaiting US payrolls data n outcome of OPEC meeting today
Tis will dictate the movement of MYR next week
*
Earlier, stock futures edged higher after the 8:30 a.m., ET, November jobs report beat headline expectations with creation of 211,000 and showed an increase in wages and continued low unemployment, as expected. The number of jobs created in October and September were also revised higher.

good jobs data = market confidence or fed rate hike or both? biggrin.gif

dow +160.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 4 2015, 10:40 PM)
yesterday I heard some source say they wanna cut some output, now say maintain shakehead.gif  more oversupply flood the market  doh.gif
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hard to cut... who wants to cut and lose revenue?

iran coming onstream soon with 1 mil bpd, indonesia rejoins opec with 780 kbpd - output ceiling has to be increased.

enjoy cheap petrol for some more months. biggrin.gif
nexona88
post Dec 4 2015, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:53 PM)
hard to cut... who wants to cut and lose revenue?

iran coming onstream soon with 1 mil bpd, indonesia rejoins opec with 780 kbpd - output ceiling has to be increased.

enjoy cheap petrol for some more months. biggrin.gif
*
more bad news for gomen & petronas blush.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 4 2015, 10:57 PM)
more bad news for gomen & petronas blush.gif
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no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2015, 05:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM)
no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
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While we talk about this as jokes, but "someone" actually think so and sleep very well with a fat woman beside him tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:53 PM)
Earlier, stock futures edged higher after the 8:30 a.m., ET, November jobs report beat headline expectations with creation of 211,000 and showed an increase in wages and continued low unemployment, as expected. The number of jobs created in October and September were also revised higher.

good jobs data = market confidence or fed rate hike or both? biggrin.gif

dow +160.
*
DJIA up 369 or 2.12%
Oil tumble 0.94 or 2.29% to 40.14
Next week will b interesting for MYR

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 11:07 PM)
no problem - borrow, raise gst, sell land, no resistance. tongue.gif
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Plus increase price n remove current subsidies
icemanfx
post Dec 5 2015, 10:57 AM

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Record low commodities (e.g oil, iron ore, coal, etc) is great news for g7 economy. Time to relocate investment portfolio.

AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:56 AM)
DJIA up 369 or 2.12%
Oil tumble 0.94 or 2.29% to 40.14
Next week will b interesting for MYR
*
with opec stand, crude is heading below 40.

with last jobs data, dec 16 is almost sure of seeing a rate hike.

but i still see rm sticking around 4.2-4.3.

until some new and major development.

i don't how what is best to invest in for now... but for sure, not o&g counters in bursa. tongue.gif


QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:58 AM)
Plus increase price n remove current subsidies
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i will not be surprised if new taxes get introduced in 2016.
icemanfx
post Dec 5 2015, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 11:05 AM)
with opec stand, crude is heading below 40.

with last jobs data, dec 16 is almost sure of seeing a rate hike.

but i still see rm sticking around 4.2-4.3.

until some new and major development.

i don't how what is best to invest in for now... but for sure, not o&g counters in bursa. tongue.gif
i will not be surprised if new taxes get introduced in 2016.
*
Those bought o&g counters in bursa during the last dead cat bound are in for a long haul.

There is endless possibilities in kangkong paradise, tax increments, new tax, end of subsidy, etc is not a surprise.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 5 2015, 11:19 AM
nexona88
post Dec 5 2015, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 5 2015, 05:24 AM)
While we talk about this as jokes, but "someone" actually think so and sleep very well with a fat woman beside him  tongue.gif
*
in coming sedisi act for making fun to certain people! tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 11:05 AM)
with opec stand, crude is heading below 40.

with last jobs data, dec 16 is almost sure of seeing a rate hike.

but i still see rm sticking around 4.2-4.3.

until some new and major development.

i don't how what is best to invest in for now... but for sure, not o&g counters in bursa. tongue.gif
i will not be surprised if new taxes get introduced in 2016.
*
Despite the certainty in rate hike, most economist/fund mgr/analyst have 80% confidence level ony
Ramjade
post Dec 5 2015, 12:25 PM

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Just for info, I hang out in some international forums, even Canadian are complaining of the strong USD. Even they are looking whether US will increase rates.

So by increasing the rates > USD will increase > USD become too expensive > less demands > bad for economy?

I am still thinking and hoping US will just maintained. How many times they cry wolf already.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:25 PM)
Just for info, I hang out in some international forums, even Canadian are complaining of the strong USD. Even they are looking whether US will increase rates.

So by increasing the rates > USD will increase > USD become too expensive > less demands > bad for economy?

I am still thinking and hoping US will just maintained. How many times they cry wolf already.
*
Finally Janet remove procrastination from the dictionary brows.gif
Ramjade
post Dec 5 2015, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 12:33 PM)
Finally Janet remove procrastination from the dictionary  brows.gif
*
If still cry wolf how?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2015, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:35 PM)
If still cry wolf how?
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Simple...
Song continue to sing and Dance continue to jump brows.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 5 2015, 12:25 PM)
Just for info, I hang out in some international forums, even Canadian are complaining of the strong USD. Even they are looking whether US will increase rates.

So by increasing the rates > USD will increase > USD become too expensive > less demands > bad for economy?

I am still thinking and hoping US will just maintained. How many times they cry wolf already.
*
canadian $ is whacked big time like aud and rm - because the canadian economy is commodity based too - oil, minerals with little else to export.

usd is strong and "expensive" because of the confidence it commands as the #1 currency, with no near #2. the euro is next big but is in worse shape than usd.

there is a massive problem brewing - years of easing and cheap debt, i.e. near zero interest rates. this is good to keep the broader economy going but... very high risks now for junk bonds and other high leverage biz. and some sectors are suffering, .e.g pension funds and insurance cos. that rely on fixed income. if a couple of these big ones fail, it will roil markets and threaten the economy, like the lehman collapse in 2008. the longer they "cry wolf", the less time than they have to normalize rates in time so as not to risk some major failure and meltdown that will spread to rest of the globe.

it is not a easy job for yellen and fed. still, the job nos. can't get better, inflation will not go much higher. it is almost certain rate will be hiked on dec 16. question is if it will be 25bps and what comments follow.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 5 2015, 01:43 PM
Ramjade
post Dec 5 2015, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 01:40 PM)
canadian $ is whacked big time like aud and rm - because the canadian economy is commodity based too - oil, minerals with little else to export.

usd is strong and "expensive" because of the confidence it commands as the #1 currency, with no near #2. the euro is next big but is in worse shape than usd.

there is a massive problem brewing - years of easing and cheap debt, i.e. near zero interest rates. this is good to keep the broader economy going but many sectors are suffering - junk bonds, high leverage biz and... pension funds and insurance cos. that rely on fixed income. if a couple of these big ones fail, it will roil markets and threaten the economy, like the lehman collapse in 2008. the longer they "cry wolf", the less time than they have to normalize rates in time so as not to risk some major failure and meltdown that will spread to rest of the globe.

it is not a easy job for yellen and fed. still, the job nos. can't get better, inflation will not go much higher. it is almost certain rate will be hiked on dec 16. question is if it will be 25bps and what comments follow.
*
What do you mean by less time to normalise rates?

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