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USD/MYR drop, v3
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AVFAN
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 Dec 14 2015, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Dec 14 2015, 08:35 PM) Why wow? Morgan Stanley gives estimate 4.56 for Q4 right? Long way to go...  i now start to think 4.56 is very possible by dec 31. brent <37, crude <35. msia is a large exporter of natural gas, in the top 10 in the world. QUOTE Natural Gas Falls to Lowest Since 2002 on Mild Weather Outlook http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-2002-ii5rba6fshort of tens of billions in gomen revenue, u think putrajaya will raise gst first or cut budget expenses first? answer is probably neither - just borrow more and quick! so, what happens to the rm?  |
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AVFAN
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Dec 14 2015, 10:40 PM
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QUOTE(langstrasse @ Dec 14 2015, 10:22 PM) I wonder if these guys ever review what they say in public review in private... get promotion. in other countries, the finance minsters get booted within days. QUOTE |
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AVFAN
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Dec 14 2015, 10:58 PM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 14 2015, 10:55 PM) His remark was on 28/1/2015 Nobody know it will sink until USD36 now same with "rm will not sink below 3.80". never say never if one has no control over it. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 14 2015, 11:19 PM
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aud is gaining big against rm - 3.17.
bad news for parents paying kid fees in aud...
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AVFAN
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Dec 14 2015, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 14 2015, 11:39 PM) twinning programme in local uni also not cheap. think pre-u +3 yr degree easily rm100k in fees only? |
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AVFAN
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Dec 15 2015, 02:43 AM
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 14 2015, 11:52 PM) well I guess that's the range.. but still cheaper than studying in Aussie of course. 100k also cannot go abroad these days. with current fx rates, even india and bangladesh will now cost a lot more; only russia is now cheaper. unless yr parents are loaded, higher education now probably comes with a new dimension - debts at early age. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 15 2015, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(chengcheng @ Dec 14 2015, 11:48 PM) Will Singapore raise their interest rate? If they do, will it be Rm 3.10 to SGD 1? singapore does not control interest rates like most other countries. it basically manages its exchange rate vs major partners within a band. interest rates are left to find its way in an open market but will usually go in tandem with usa rates. if usa raise rates, sg rates should go up too. there will be pressure to keep the sgd from getting too strong against china and msia currencies as these are also major trading partners. keep in mind gdp growth in sg has been low with low inflation, bad news for its economy if sgd is too strong. 3.10 was seen in sep, no surprise if it gets there again. QUOTE 3. HOW DOES MAS MANAGE ITS MONETARY POLICY?
Most countries, including the United States and China, adopt an interest rate policy where central banks raise or cut interest rates.
Singapore is the only major economy in the world to use the exchange rate, guiding the Singdollar higher or lower.
MAS says the exchange rate is the best tool for a small, open economy like Singapore. It is a more effective way to manage inflation, as much of the country's consumer goods are imported.
4. SO IF MAS DOES NOT SET INTEREST RATES IN SINGAPORE, WHO DOES?
MAS has effectively given up control of domestic interest rates. Instead, borrowing costs are largely determined by US interest rates and investors' expectations of the future movement of the Singapore dollar.
5. HOW DOES MAS' EXCHANGE-RATE POLICY WORK?
MAS lets the Singdollar rise or fall against an undisclosed basket of currencies of its main trading partners, intervening when needed to keep the exchange rate within its unspecified target band.
To deter speculation and be more effective, MAS does not disclose what is in its basket of currencies or specify its trading band.
It adjusts the pace of appreciation or depreciation of the Singdollar by changing the slope, width and centre of this trading band.
The exchange rate that MAS targets is trade weighted such that the currencies of Singapore's larger trading partners bear more weight. This trade-weighted exchange rate is known as the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate or S$NEER.http://www.straitstimes.com/business/econo...monetary-policy This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 15 2015, 11:04 AM |
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AVFAN
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Dec 15 2015, 03:03 PM
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fed hike, then what? what possible surprises? this is a good read for vested parties: QUOTE This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 15 2015, 03:12 PM |
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AVFAN
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Dec 16 2015, 03:13 AM
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budget 2016 used oil price at 48. http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...8-says-ministeranalysts say petronas breakeven 45. http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/Petronas-c...oil-price-slumpbrent (tapis is equivalent) is now <39. without the planned oil dividends, where is money going to come from if crude price stays at this level? rm 4.315. how can it fly under current conditions? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 16 2015, 03:18 AM |
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AVFAN
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Dec 16 2015, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 16 2015, 03:39 PM) 1.00 USD = 4.31767 MYR not much movement even with super low crude price?  it's all relative. do not just look at usd-rm. rm has to rise or fall against other currencies too. look at russian, canadian, aussie, sgd, rupee, rupiah, baht, etc.. in the last one month of falling crude prices, rm has gained over russian, canadian and south african. lost to all the rest or flat. there is no black magic... |
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AVFAN
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Dec 16 2015, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 16 2015, 04:02 PM) but our trade are mostly in USD  or we trade using respective countries currency  we don't trade in isolation. major countries trade with all nations although msia trades with less. all currencies are linked, except maybe n korea. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 17 2015, 03:46 AM
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fed hike... like many expected, it's all expected, priced in. comments, yellen speech - dovish. seems no big effect on stocks or fx. so, relax... buy or sell yr rm like any day tmrw.  stocks markets probably relieved it has finally come, can rally now.  |
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AVFAN
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Dec 17 2015, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 17 2015, 07:02 AM) our menteris will be fuming over this... QUOTE Weak Countries
Those losers include Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia and Colombia, which either have large current-account deficits or have accumulated too much dollar debt, according to Capital Economics.
With higher U.S. borrowing costs, it’s more expensive for emerging markets to refinance their $3.3 trillion dollar debt, threatening to increase default rates and suppress economic growth.
Lending is starting to dry up. Issuance by emerging-market borrowers slumped 98 percent to a net $1.5 billion in the third quarter, from the second quarter, according to the BIS. stable, 4.33. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 17 2015, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 17 2015, 11:56 AM) 16 Dec 2015 03:50 UTC - 17 Dec 2015 03:53 UTC USD/MYR close:4.33941 low:4.28060 high:4.33941 Slowly going up if brent goes nearer to 37, 4.40 is likely. but this round, rm is not asian champion. nzd is, followed by aud. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 17 2015, 01:59 PM
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latest relevant articles: QUOTE The Fed hike will hit these two currencies Currencies in Indonesia and Malaysia have already taken a beating over the past year, and the interest rate increases in the U.S. are set to deal them another blow. "These two are a little bit more vulnerable to Fed hikes, tightening in dollar liquidity (and) capital outflows," Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia foreign-exchange at Barclays, told CNBC Thursday. "Both currencies may be more susceptible to weakness as we go into next year." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/fed-interes...ah-ringgit.html... Asia Welcomes Fed Move as Policy Makers Warn of Outflow Risks The Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan will be the first Asian central banks to react to the Fed’s move, with economists expecting the Southeast Asian nations to remain on hold while about half the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict a cut in Taiwan. Increasing U.S. borrowing costs may be closing the window for Asian central banks to shore up their economies with rate cuts, which could spur capital flight from emerging markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...f-outflow-risks |
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AVFAN
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Dec 17 2015, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 17 2015, 09:57 PM) Despite US Fed Reserve hike int rate, MYR continue to appreciate by 0.27% to 4.3135 effect was probably much priced in; brent price recovered a bit today. what happens next? QUOTE Malaysia to review Budget 2016 if oil prices continue to stay low - See more at: http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/mala...h.QWdDbqgy.dpufOil-Squeezed Malaysia Seen Selling Sukuk as $1.2 Billion Matures http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...billion-matures |
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AVFAN
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Dec 18 2015, 01:00 AM
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rm vs other currencies will start to move too as other central banks take action: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/fed-hike-sp...k-activity.html |
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AVFAN
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Dec 18 2015, 01:58 PM
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4.295. QUOTE Fitch maintains Malaysia’s rating at ‘A-’ with stable outlook https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/323794Fitch revises Malaysian banks’ outlook in 2016 to negative - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...h.QDSrjcNS.dpuf |
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AVFAN
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Dec 19 2015, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(csting87 @ Dec 19 2015, 10:44 AM) look like going to drop to 4.20 again and then go up to 4.3x again. that is possible with major development. i think the next big factors affecting the rm/usd would be: .. price of crude (brent now at 36.60) .. actual budget 2015 deficit .. gdp data for 4q2015 .. what changes to budget 2016 gomen will made besides all the on-going politics, of course. |
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AVFAN
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Dec 21 2015, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 21 2015, 11:21 AM) really? 6-7months ago 1myr = 3500idr. now 1myr=3200idr. becos indon has a bad history of capital outflows in times of trouble. msia is not that behind in its record of capital flight, legal and illegal. forecasts being forecasts, i see rupiah and ringgit fighting tooth and nail in the coming months to be the worst in asia. as if there is a prize for that. indon does not suffer as much in oil and gas exports revenue. watch oil and gas prices and how putarjaya will deal with 2015 and 2016 budget deficits - that will be the key to the rm. brent approaching 36. |
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