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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 07:26 PM

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as an salaried worker and a consumer, i want as strong a currency as possible - greatest purchasing power. but my employer may restrain my wage increase.

as an exporter, i want a weak currency to beat my competitors but that makes me lazy, since there is no need to improve on productivity and costs.

as a gomen, i want a balance but very often, i can't do it or don't know. so f it! laugh.gif



really, why is it so darn easy for a currency to fall and so darn hard for it to rise?

because even lazy idiots know how to make currencies fall whereas it takes smart responsible brains to make a currency strong and yet sustainable.

that can only be true because if the reverse is true, there is no need for good brains and good governance. we go back to the dark ages. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:40 PM)
Purchasing power of salaried worker will b lesser next yr as a lot of Co freeze increment  cry.gif
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where u get the indications?

u mean private sector?

since public sector already said x% up, bonus, etc...?

if private sector, that's very bad.

purchasing power already destroyed by weak rm and high inflation.

lagi no gaji naik? shakehead.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2015, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2015, 07:59 PM)
M refer to private sector employees
In addition, a lot of Co didn't declare Bonus too tis yr
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if that will be true, chance of recession in 2016.
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2015, 07:56 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 7 2015, 02:24 PM)
6 Dec 2015 06:20 UTC - 7 Dec 2015 06:21 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.20097 low:4.18944 high:4.21250

Managed to hang on at 4.20 level despite bad news
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no hope for those hoping 4.0 or 4.5.

just accept 4.2-4.3.

that's not what i am saying, just what the world financial markets are saying. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2015, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 7 2015, 08:01 PM)
Tis is the range Ppl r willing to trade regardless whether the underlying currency is under/over value
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right, do not underestimate the power of open market forces.

do not overestimate the power of small time conjuring or weak black magic. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 02:20 AM

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crude crashed 6%, now at 37.60.

rm may be >4.3 tmrw.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 11:26 AM

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4.27 is not bad.

holding better than colombia but not as well as brazil or mexico or aud.

chance of crude falling further to 35 before stabilizing.



there will be another round of commodity currencies hammering if fed hike rates on dec 16.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2015, 11:41 AM)
Fall short of your expectation @ 4.30
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well... the day is not over. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(MR_alien @ Dec 8 2015, 01:55 PM)
PM though dnt care who is the best for the job but who is the best for him brows.gif  brows.gif
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no brainer.

from the choice of igp and a-g, we already know the profile of the next bnm governor.


AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2015, 11:41 AM)
Fall short of your expectation @ 4.30
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not quite 3.0. biggrin.gif

7 Dec 2015 11:45 UTC - 8 Dec 2015 11:58 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.28519 low:4.22450 high:4.28691


if crude rebound later, rm will gain.

so, 4.20-4.30, no extremes, no chance for speculators.

maybe zeti magic will keep it stable until she leaves. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 09:28 PM

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never say never...

7 Dec 2015 13:20 UTC - 8 Dec 2015 13:25 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.30300 low:4.23183 high:4.30379

AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2015, 09:46 PM)
wah already boken 4.30 mark wor  ohmy.gif  shocking.gif
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becos crude diving, 36.70. brent below 40.


our wallets kena whacked hard soon, more to come. keep supporting u know who.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...icity-next-year
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ices-next-year/
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2015, 10:49 PM)
U must b very Happy  icon_idea.gif
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no. biggrin.gif

happiness would be to see extremes like 4.0 or 4.50 but that's not happening, no luck. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2015, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2015, 10:59 PM)
U prefer north or south?
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either way is ok... rm weaker i gain something.

rm stronger, i buy fx.

becos next few years, rm is not going anywhere pretty.

there has been nothing substantial being invested now that will bring big $ benefits in the years to come.

talents leaving, fdi no confidence, non-functioning gomen.

selling prime land, other assets and more debt won't help the rm.

oil/gas prices will stay low for 2-3 years, imo.



4.2-4.3 like now, i do nothing, even.
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2015, 12:47 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2015, 11:25 PM)
If steady within 4.20 to 4.30, tis will b very Boring
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if that will be, this thread will go ice cold in 3 months. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 11 2015, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 10 2015, 11:43 AM)
tis thread is really "dead"  yawn.gif  sweat.gif
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small ups and downs not much to talk about.

will probably be like that until dec 16/17.

meanwhile, if u have electrical/IT stuff to buy, think better buy now! tongue.gif

rm is more like russian and brazilian, not like viet, india or thai.

QUOTE
The sharp drop in currencies in Brazil and Russia appears set to claim an unlikely victim: appliance sales.

Market researcher Euromonitor expects this year's consumer appliance sales globally will grow only around 2 percent in retail volume terms, largely driven by sharp slumps in Brazil and Russia.

Major appliance sales in Russia and Brazil are expected to drop 28 percent and 6 percent respectively this year, Euromonitor said.
..
Another bright spot: sales of dishwashers in Asia, particularly in China, Vietnam, India and Thailand, are expected to show solid growth.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/10/brazil-russ...appliances.html

AVFAN
post Dec 11 2015, 11:20 AM

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crude at 36.50 and below may push the rm >4.30 before dec 16/7.

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Ratings’ head of Asia Pacific sovereign ratings, believes the real risk in Malaysia was that the government would be forced into populist moves and thereby relax its fiscal discipline, according to Bloomberg News. Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has already been handing out cash handouts to the poor via BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia).
Colquhoun thinks the government’s fiscal-deficit target, as one result, may be “a bit higher” than 3.1 per cent. Najib aims to cut the budget shortfall to 3.2 of GDP this year and 3.1 per cent in 2016.
The 29 per cent drop in Brent crude prices this year is the single biggest factor hitting the Malaysian economy as 22 per cent of the Federal Government’s revenue comes from oil-related sources.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-risks-in-msia/


AVFAN
post Dec 11 2015, 09:05 PM

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10 yr mgs 4.34%.

10 Dec 2015 13:00 UTC - 11 Dec 2015 13:02 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.32758 low:4.24706 high:4.32999
AVFAN
post Dec 12 2015, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(@secret@ @ Dec 12 2015, 09:27 PM)
I'm going to Europe for about 6months on the second half of next year. So yeah I'll need a lot of Euro. What should I do in order to hedge the currency exposure/MYR volatile movement?
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if u r sure u will need euro, a dual currency account may fit yr needs.

i do not use it but i think it should be useful in yr case. not useful for speculation or have no intention to spend a particular foreign currency.

there is thread on that, search for it.
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2015, 06:06 PM

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4.50 is very possible if fed hike rates and crude price go to 32-33 by dec 31.

5.0... will take a lot more - low gdp growth, big budget deficit requiring more and fast debt to fund budget overruns, incr in br1m. and maybe a cut in int rates to promote gdp growth. not likely in early in 2016 but u never know what our gomen is capable of when it comes to spending/throwing money to sustain itself.

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