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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 7 2016, 12:52 PM)
succession plan
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this one... very fluid la... already thrown around for some time.

we will just see what we will see.
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 7 2016, 12:59 PM)
In long term, I am converting RM to USD/SGD/AUD/GBP regardless of the rates. With not so good prospect on the malaysian economy (and hence RM) over long term, averaging out over the years will still provide forex gains
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that is what is what most people who have the resources and the vision will do.

a currency can only appr if good investments are made with sound policies years ago to bring increasing income, trade surplus, fdi, fx inflows in the future. it does not and cannot happen by doing nothing or the opposite or just becos some loud mouths/worm brains call for it.

it certainly won't appr by wasting funds, ignoring missing billions, borrowing more or selling prime national assets.

is it that hard to understand? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 7 2016, 03:31 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Jan 7 2016, 03:38 PM)
dropping back to 4.38 tongue.gif
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with crude at 32.20, i can almost assure u it will go back 4.4x by 5pm. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 05:03 PM

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5pm. laugh.gif


6 Jan 2016 09:00 UTC - 7 Jan 2016 09:00 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.40081 low:4.37790 high:4.43676

AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 7 2016, 06:34 PM)
Old bird like you understand the whole picture  thumbup.gif

But you can see in this thread there are many people still asking whether it is a good idea to convert their RM to forex. They find it hard to understand the gloomy future they are facing  doh.gif
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Old birds do try hard to tell the birdlings. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 7 2016, 06:56 PM)
Couldn't wait for them to finish their business  shakehead.gif

RM should have breached 4.50 easily if everything go according to fundamentals
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The biz will never be finished.

As long the crooks get the blind support, it will be the same or worse.

I agree 4.50 will be the average for next 2 years; the fundamentals are getting weaker as more money and talent get chased out.

When we get nearer to ge14 in 2018, there will be some manipulated movement attempted.

But alas, small economies with little to show can't do much.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 7 2016, 07:14 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 02:54 AM

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something to watch in the morning:

QUOTE
Sources: China wants quick, sharp currency decline

China's central bank is under increasing pressure from policy advisers to let the yuan currency fall quickly and sharply, by as much as 10-15 percent, as its recent gradual softening is thought to be doing more harm than good.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/sources-chi...cy-decline.html

AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 03:04 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 8 2016, 03:02 AM)
Don't mind me asking, if China devalue their currency some more, would it put pressure on the USD or it will give the USD a boost?
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rmb devaluation means devalue it against the usd.

usd is #1 world currency, not pressured.

smaller countries currencies having china as major trading partner will be - particularly malaysia, singapore, south korea.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 8 2016, 03:09 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 8 2016, 07:43 AM)
I think you misunderstood me. I was replying to cherroy. He said there's no problem in malaysian banking system. Saying some of our banks are on par with developed countries bank. So I said what's the use of best banking system in the world if your currency loses out to indon and Thai?  In the long term, keeping money in Malaysia will make us poorer (price of stuff increases to match usd-myr exchange rates)
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strength of banking system is a basis for a stable currency but it does not "guarantee" a strong one.

rm has lost a lot more than the baht or even rupiah for many reasons we already know. basically:

.. thailand has similar debt like msia but is a huge consumer of oil/oil products - a lot to gain from low oil price.
.. indon has much lower debt but like msia is very commodity export based incl palm oil; raised int rate in nov 2015.
.. msia has china as major trading partner and china is slowing, rmb been devaluing.
.. msia has "bijan chronicles" that have not been cleared in the minds of investors, foreign and domestic.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 8 2016, 10:12 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 8 2016, 10:10 AM)
That's what I am saying. Despite strong banks, our ringgit have fallen the worse in these region.
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well, imagine what would have happened if the banks are in bad shape! laugh.gif


as for price increases, watch post CNY - some price increases will be shocking.
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 10:40 AM

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rm lead among asian currencies to recover against usd.

down #1, up also #1! biggrin.gif


QUOTE
People's Bank of China sets yuan fix at 6.5636 versus 6.5646 Thursday

China's central bank guided the yuan a shade higher Friday, reversing eight days of declines in the currency that rocked financial markets and fanned renewed worries over the health of the world's second-largest economy.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.5636 against the dollar, up 0.02 percent from Thursday's fix and higher than the yuan's closing rate of 6.5929 in onshore trading on Thursday.

China's central bank lets the yuan spot rate rise or fall a maximum of 2 percent against the dollar, relative to the official fixing rate.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/peoples-ban...6-thursday.html
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 8 2016, 06:05 PM)
Najib: Budget 2016 to be recalibrated
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...e-recalibrated/

Another round of volatility for USD/MYR?
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i think so.

scenario A
cut "vote getting/goodies" expense, pm budget
realistic oil price
minor new borrowings
minor taxes incr

scenario B
keep/incr "vote getting/goodies" expense, pm budget
cut capex, investments budget
optimistic oil price
major incr borrowings
major taxes incr

maybe a mix of A and B, but let's just talk about the slant.

place yr bets now. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE
China says will further liberalize interest rates
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/china-centr...uan-stable.html

Yuan Seen Needing Bigger Depreciation for China to Reap Benefits
The yuan, which has fallen 5 percent since China’s central bank devalued the currency in August, probably needs to fall an additional 14 percent if the nation’s economy is to see any real benefits.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...o-reap-benefits
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 8 2016, 07:35 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 9 2016, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 9 2016, 01:58 PM)
Raise taxes on income
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bijan been boasting about gst while people hate it.

most people hate it not becos it is not a sound principle but becos it is being used to fill the big holes he created.

so, yes, i see high chance for increase in all kinds of taxes soon - incl gst, income tax. dozens of think tanks must be burning midnight oil now to find new and creative ways to tax anything that moves.

what else can putarjaya do to keep spending?!



crude <33.

8 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC - 9 Jan 2016 06:01 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.42290 low:4.37280 high:4.42325

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 9 2016, 02:10 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 10 2016, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 10 2016, 04:30 PM)
Yes, same question here,... when is the ann't ?
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he's keeping it close to his chest.

i expect him to delay and delay for obvious reasons.

anyone leak, igp may come after u. tongue.gif

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 10 2016, 06:25 PM)
Oh China.. Because of u doing.. Whole world market suffers.. incl forex cry.gif and it's much worse for bolehland yawn.gif
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i wouldn't blame china or usa.

china and usa has done all they could to keep world markets at record highs year after year, the smart and clever countries got richer and richer.

the party has to end some time. and they cannot bear the burden alone.

countries that continue to rely on the easy ways - commodities, debt and printing money will have to face the consequences.
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 11:52 AM

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bloomberg and cnbc hammering away at how low the rmb will go.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ore-in-a-crisis
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/goldman-sac...to-persist.html

while they are know to be noisier than necessary, do give a thought about how this will impact the rm and sgd in 2016.

esp for the rm when the situation is still very much, "Don’t question support for my administration, says N".

AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(mred02 @ Jan 11 2016, 12:22 PM)
if ringgit follow yuan..is it good to buy usd ? xD
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yes.

but what r u planning to do with the usd?
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(mred02 @ Jan 11 2016, 02:18 PM)
im sure can get small amount of profit if sell back..
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we have been thru this many times...

if u mean small amounts to keep in wallet, drawer or under the pillow, it's fine but is not material.

for larger amounts:

.. buy/sell spread can be up to 2% depending on bank/broker/money changer.
.. keep rm in fd = 4.5%
.. use usd for inv = risk of cap loss (or gain)

so, usd/rm must give u >6.5% gain within 1 yr to be meaningful.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2016, 02:27 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(mred02 @ Jan 11 2016, 02:29 PM)
i cant expect for 6.5% changes in year.. haha. so u mean better put at fd is it? but fd must be keep for >1yr right?
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now, that is for u to decide.

it can't be the same for everyone.

if it is that straightforward for everyone, there will be nothing to discuss!


AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE
Moody’s cuts Malaysia’s sovereign rating outlook due to growth risks - See more at:

"Those environmental changes have also undermined Malaysia's external position, with large capital outflows, a falling current account surplus, sharp exchange rate depreciation and falling reserves," the ratings house said in a report. Alongside a worsening external environment, material domestic imbalances continue to pose a risk to growth and household debt levels remain high, it added. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.wWVRW5jw.dpuf


can expect our clever ministers to disagree.

maybe fitch will counter it too, improve rating...?

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