at the end of brexit day1 for the rm:

usd -3.5%
sgd -2.2%
aud -1.3%
euro -1.0%
yen -6.7%
rmb -2.4%
gbp +5%

if celebrating, it's only against the uk pound.

if spending pounds, better do so quick-quick as prices/fees/charges will be expected to rise very soon.

meanwhile, crude priced tumbled 5%.

brexit effects will go on for a while, expect volatility in fx, stocks, crdue, gold, commodities to persist for some time due to the pound "adjustment".

yen is the "safest" major currency; japanese bonds are where everyone goes to buy when there is panic.

usd is not as "safe" since the fed is now pressured by brexit to dump rate hike plans this year, may even cut rates next year for qe4.

euro is even less safe as brexit will now prompt holland, sweden and denmark to mull exit too.

overall here, usd is probably still the best currency to hold in the near term as it is more fluid and easy to buy/sell.

at this time, rm has nothing to drive it higher.

except rising oil price.

and oil price just dropped 5%, likely to drop further.

becos pre-brexit, most investers/traders bet on bremain and drive stocks/commodities/crude prices higher.

now, they are reeling from the shock, come down to earth to face oversupply and strong usd pressures again.

anyway, don't let a slightly higher spending spoil your the holiday.

right...

these fx changes will not stop, will keep moving up and down for all kinds of reasons.

for necessary spending like fees and travel, no need to be concerned too much.

only for investment, gotta be more careful.

u have been reading some unique stuff.



anyway, the trend today continues as expected.

gbp falls further.

yen gains against usd.

usd gains against all other currencies.

the prospect of usd-euro parity is now getting more real.

of course it is. and for such a big number for all types and classes.

it's the magnitude of the change that's of interest.

just like if yr stocks lost 1mil, can also say it's "only paper loss, no worries...?!!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 27 2016, 02:41 PM

those who shorted gbp, stocks and crude before brexit vote.

those who longed gold, yen and usd.

no report yet which fund or tycoon made billions but soros made some, it seems:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/george-soro...-spokesman.html

everyone thinks he/she is great with predictions while analysts are bullshitters.

ok, ok... here's one analyst with this prediction which i think is about right:



gbp/usd = 1.34 now.

10% drop = 1.22.

which implies euro will be close to usd parity.

rm... u can figure it out.

will be difficult with new development post-brexit vote.

central banks now expected to move to limit further losses.

talk now that fed may cut rate, i.e. back to where it was.

japan may have more negative int rates.

until the mother of all bubbles blow - which may be decades away. so, who cares?!

one day, we here too, may have to pay the banks to keep our money.

usd weakened, rm gained as crude price rose from 46 to 50 post brexit.

now, nomura is speculating...

Brexit may force Bank Negara to cut rates
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...a-to-cut-rates/

really, u already knew?

i am not so sure yet.


low int rate currencies may not be a bad thing in the mid-long term.

in the longer term,currencies with "high" int rates will probably do worse.

see the the kind of fear big money has at this time?

for small and not-so-attractive-to-foreign-investor nations, that will be right - cut in int rates will depr the currency.

for small and safe haven nations like switzerland and singapore, lower rates does not put off investors or depr the currency.

for major economies and safe havens like japan, germany and usa, they can cut and cut until negative, yet trillions will still go there.

ya, the capitalist world is such - big money flows into where the confidence is highest, high yield or low yield.

esp in times of crisis and uncertainty.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 30 2016, 07:08 PM

june 26, 3 days after brexit vote, this article talks of a further 10% fall for the pound, ie.e from 1.34 to 1.20
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-u-k-in-turmoil

today, the pound touched 1.28.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/british-pou...e-to-swirl.html

brexit longer term effects, continued oil glut, weak major global economies... more and more reports pointing to stronger $ (beside the yen).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...forecaster-says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...se-much-further

and bnm may cut rates due to weak gdp?

keep your mighty $!