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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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gark
post Feb 21 2017, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 21 2017, 07:18 PM)
Lol. No. tongue.gif

Expectancy + position sizing.

Trading topic but it makes perfect sense for any investor to incorporate.

In short, it suggests to you how much you should allocate to a stock counter with the risk managed.
Some investors are better off as a trader.
Some traders are better off as an investor.

How will we know what we are?

Well....years and years of fake trading (investing also can).
You? Ah Gark? You can actually be a damn good trader.

I think.
laugh.gif
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Haha I can hardly trade, not much time to watch the market.. tongue.gif

Need you to show more example .. rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
gark
post Feb 22 2017, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 22 2017, 09:54 AM)
Got RM10K cash from credit card at 2.88% flat interest i.e. 5%+ effective rate. Any tipsy? hmm.gif
Took this cash because so far my portfolio returning me IRR of 19%, so I GUESS 5% should be easy to beat blush.gif

Preferably a stock from my current portfolio

notworthy.gif

Matrix Concepts gonna announce results and its quarterly divvy this week. Optimistic? hmm.gif

Unker gark why CPO futures suddenly so bearish? Temporary, or normalisation?
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Tipsy : Never invest with debt. tongue.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


CPO has run too high and too deep, some pullback should be expected. Also USD looks to be weakening in the horizon, so CPO price expect to come down. Even at RM 2,800/ton also most plantation makes money hand over fist already. laugh.gif
gark
post Feb 22 2017, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 20 2017, 06:17 PM)
Points noted especially number 4  flex.gif  notworthy.gif
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Your armada is hoseh today.. rclxms.gif

I am sure you are earning more than KFC jor.. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 22 2017, 06:28 PM
gark
post Feb 22 2017, 06:39 PM

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I just read a palm oil report on why target palm oil price for 2017 will be lower at 2,500/ton. hmm.gif

Reasons given,

- soybean oil current trade at thin premium of $10-$13 compared to palm oil.
- soybean price drop 10% recently from crop concerns in argentina as flood has receded.
- Trump freeze usage of soybean oil for biodiesel and expiry of tax credit $1/gallon biofuel in US

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 22 2017, 06:39 PM
gark
post Feb 22 2017, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 22 2017, 06:38 PM)
how do you explain every year every quarter lose money company stock price can move like this?
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People do not buy it for the current prospects, they are eyeing future recovery prospects. tongue.gif
gark
post Feb 22 2017, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 22 2017, 07:54 PM)
ok ok lo, 1st batch i lose a lot. after 2nd batch add back few weeks ago, now break even only in average  sweat.gif

My HKSE bank shares la  drool.gif  HKD stregthen and gain in stocks.  brows.gif
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HKD is pegged to USD.. so the strength is the same.

My armada is near breakeven.. dunno to sell off or wait for gain.. hmm
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Feb 23 2017, 10:28 AM)
I thought you eye 10-baggers blink.gif
Become short term trader liao?
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Got other better fish to fry.. tongue.gif

Anyway still holding... for now.
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 23 2017, 10:26 AM)
I wonder who is pushing up the share price of PETRONM (3042). It was suffering a loss of about 3% the other day.

Today the price has gone up 22.68% as we speak. Currently the market price is RM5.680. This is madness.

This means that if an investor put in RM100K, he would have made RM22K plus within a week?
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Stockmarket is irrational... mostly it is head behavior...

Stay rational and don't try to chase those gains.. unless there are good fundamentals behind it.
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 23 2017, 11:30 AM)
Apa tu HEAD behavior?

Bang one head...
Other head also bang bang.

tongue.gif
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LOL it is herd behaviour.. tongue.gif
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 12:20 PM)
Let me share a stock...

EPS (cent): : 48.58 (total last 12 months)
P/E Ratio: 0.84
ROE (%): 55.84
NTA (RM): 0.870
past 4 quarters all green

what price would you buy?
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Not too low ka itu PE ratio... tongue.gif

Anyway not enough info.. like dividend yield, YOY profit growth..

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 12:24 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 12:24 PM)
you can't blame the earning too high can u?
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Depend on what type of earning... dont think PE can below 1...maybe wrong calculation kua tongue.gif

If that low, the owner better fast hand fast leg take over and delist.

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 12:29 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 12:31 PM)
it's an real actual example, recent huge earning was due to land sale, that's why ask u guys what price would you buy theoretically speaking.
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Even after land sale, the BV still so low? Must be a lot of debts.

If asset based company probably will pay around 1.5x - 2x book value.

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 01:14 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 23 2017, 12:34 PM)
3 stocks in my portfolio still not doing well - AEON Credit, CIMB and Ta Ann.

Ta Ann is bleeding quite badly today. Currently at RM3.990. down -1.72%. To continue topping up? Decision, decision....
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Just buy a short while only... let time take care of the fluctuations lah. Then only the true value of the company is known either up or down. laugh.gif

Dont treat the stocks like a casino lar.. treat it like what it is.. a piece of a 'real' business.

Not sure if want to top up? Is the reason you buy still there? Will profits next year higher than this year? Is the valuation fair?

If yes to all 3, then go ahead to top up. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 01:15 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 01:15 PM)
its not a land/property company, it's an engineering company.
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Donno how to answer you, with so little details. 1.5x-2.0x book value should be fair price. tongue.gif
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 01:19 PM)
you know what, currently it's trading at 0.46xNTA, that means you would grab gau gau?

just to be safe, what else you would look out for?

btw  rolleyes.gif has anyone guess which stock is it already?
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Depends if it is a value trap... devil.gif
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2017, 01:21 PM)
come share with us what is a value trap means and how to avoid it?  rclxms.gif
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Value trap.. is companies which has a lot of asset/cash/earning/etc but ordinary shareholders cannot touch it because the boss is reluctant to give out dividends and share the pie. So the assets all get trapped in the company and shareholders have been waiting for many many years still cannot get, so they give up and sell it cheap cheap.

One good example of value trap is Insas, NTA >Rm 3 but selling at 80 cents only.. tongue.gif

However value trap can be a big gain, IF the shareholders are willing to wait.. usually for a very long time or until owner dies (like Hwang Bhd)

QUOTE
A value trap is a stock that appears to be cheap because the stock has been trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for an extended time period. Stock traps attract investors who are looking for a bargain because these stocks are inexpensive. The trap springs when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock never improves. Trading that occurs at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for long periods of time might indicate that the company or the entire sector is in trouble, and that stock prices may not move higher.

Companies, and even sectors, can be doomed, because of situations such as the inability to survive competition, the inability to generate substantial and consistent profits, the lack of new products or earnings growth, or ineffective management. Often, a value trap appears to be such a good deal that investors become confused when the stock fails to perform. As with any investment decision, thorough research and evaluation is recommended before investing in any company that appears cheap when reviewing its relevant performance metrics.
This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 01:30 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(ic no 851025071234 @ Feb 23 2017, 02:28 PM)
I make fundamental analysis for Marco holdings and it is very good fundamentals. But the share price not move much as the fundamental. Is it something wrong? Means with such good fundamental but the investor not really each from the share even hold for few yrs
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I have not checked the fundamentals for marco so I dont know.

Different people have different analysis. A counter might look good to you, but to other people.

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This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 03:07 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 23 2017, 03:08 PM)
Need to consider share base too. tongue.gif
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Mana tipsy tongue.gif

5141.. can or not.. devil.gif

No plan to buy, just checking..

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 03:15 PM
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ Feb 23 2017, 03:14 PM)
You're the boss here, not me...

Since lowya did not know what stock he's talking about, tried to guess for him... tired now... wait till he confirm...
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Wah you so free go search through 1000's of stocks ah? laugh.gif
gark
post Feb 23 2017, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(ic no 851025071234 @ Feb 23 2017, 03:14 PM)
Flat earning u mean eps or profit? Cos the revenue and profit seem to increasing every year. Or U have a benchmark how much % need to grow before consider?
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I dont know you see wrongly or I see wrongly..I dont see increasing revenue and profit at all. blink.gif

In fact 2014 & 2015 profit is higher 2016..

QUOTE
20 Feb 2017 31 Dec 2016 4 31 Dec 2016 42,064 6,149 4,767 0.45 0.50 0.160
14 Nov 2016 31 Dec 2016 3 30 Sep 2016 43,633 6,815 4,919 0.47 0.00 0.160
16 Aug 2016 31 Dec 2016 2 30 Jun 2016 45,489 5,399 3,884 0.37 0.00 0.160
17 May 2016 31 Dec 2016 1 31 Mar 2016 48,704 5,159 3,781 0.36 0.00 0.160
23 Feb 2016 31 Dec 2015 4 31 Dec 2015 43,055 5,495 4,398 0.42 0.70 0.150
19 Nov 2015 31 Dec 2015 3 30 Sep 2015 42,438 7,031 5,282 0.50 0.00 0.150
19 Aug 2015 31 Dec 2015 2 30 Jun 2015 35,684 6,706 5,062 0.48 0.00 0.150
18 May 2015 31 Dec 2015 1 31 Mar 2015 45,916 6,830 5,177 0.49 0.00 0.140
16 Feb 2015 31 Dec 2014 4 31 Dec 2014 41,696 6,381 4,724 0.46 0.20 0.160
19 Nov 2014 31 Dec 2014 3 30 Sep 2014 39,561 7,690 5,978 0.62 0.00 0.150
20 Aug 2014 31 Dec 2014 2 30 Jun 2014 33,062 5,180 3,384 0.37 0.00 0.150
21 May 2014 31 Dec 2014 1 31 Mar 2014 37,389 5,321 3,958 0.47  0.00  0.150
This post has been edited by gark: Feb 23 2017, 03:27 PM

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