i used to care about what they say but no more.

local ib's, bankers in general, developers... all of them are eternal optimists w/o much objectivity and always "afraid" of telling bad news until it is full blown.

can't blame them for wanting to avoid a fate like that of the edge.

not sure what u mean...

today is public holiday, rm not traded directly, no bnm figures.

but credit swaps and fx forward contracts continue. u can see what's going on right now:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR

i stopped putting a number to it.

like i said many times, as long as commodities prices stay low, usual gomen carefree spending, more bijan chronicles, putrajaya/bnm do nothing about int rates, it will just keep going in same direction. yes, for me, it's that simple.

local reports - telling bad news may be seen by the powerful ones as act of saboatge, so i will not even read them.

given so much going on with usa fed, china economy, emerging markets fall, etc., i look for early hints from int'l reports.

this one, we don't know the details.

bankers/economists/rating agencies surely have their way of using models, possibly many models.

these are big orgs, brainy people with high pay, highly influential.

surely not hlib standard.

touched 4.40.

hlib needs to buy moody's model to do a better job.

no, i don't do fx trading.

i just hold whatever fx i hav, do sgreits, some small time crude trading.
i smell major fall in dow before year end.

one possibility...

sgd will take over old usd rate... 3.30, then 4.00, 4.40.

ok, give it 5 years.

ok, i give more time sensitive detailed calc:

int rate parity => msia int rate need to be 7.3% against sgd's near zero to stay at current 3.1.

1.073@5 yrs, compound = 1.422; x today's 3.1=4.40.

just for brain exercise but maybe it just might come out that way, ya?

in 5 yrs, i see best case will probably be 3.5, worst case 4.4.

here, not many things change over 5 years.

here, many things when they come down, they stay down or go down further.

how low will the rm go?

how will it affect the rest of the economy?

why doing nothing will be a bad idea?

a clue may lie here - study brazil closely.

msia's situation is not all that different from brazil, imo.

good read:

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 24 2015, 08:29 PM

they have promised to the world the won't do that.
if they do that again, the little confidence left now will go to zero.

these glc's more likely have been sending and keeping money abroad like 1mdb.


let it be free float, free fall, free rise to reveal and reflect all true strengths and weaknesses of the rm - fundamentals, governance, future outlook, investor confidence, etc. gomen have been claiming "strong fundamentals", now is right time to prove it, be it 4.0, 5.0 or 6.0!

msia is now world famous.

int'l articles everyday.

new one:



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 25 2015, 10:24 AM

the carnage for em currencies continue.

are the central banks of the worst hit countries doing anything?

yes - hike int rates, "increase onshore supply of dollars" (i wonder what that means??) and threat to use reserves to intervene. no one toyed with pegging so far.

at least 300bp to have any meaningful impact under current conditions.

but that will surely strangle the economy, will take it to recession.

when zeti said, "Everyone has to adjust. Individuals need to learn how to conserve and economise", i think she is telling people to accept the rm depr, will not go away so easily, purchasing power reduced, get thrifty.

even if bnm hike rates, it will be small steps, 25bp, maybe 2-3 times.

so, i don't see how the rm can return to 4.0 or better anytime soon.

more likely a scenario of "do nothing" while the slide continues.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 26 2015, 03:32 AM

that article, while being sarcastic or satirical, does point to the highest possibility outcome.

one can sing, shout and thump chests, whatever...

the rm has only one direction to go, at least for the foreseeable future.

we are at what we are with some headwind.

imagine what it will be if a global hurricane hits.

to me, it crashed a year ago. but... crash means diff things to diff people.

to me, it is a culmination of things we have been saying for the last few years - high debt, low productivity, wastage, free-flow songlap and support for less than straight leaders.

there surely is a price to be paid. it is simply not possible to have all that yet no consequence. if that can be sustained, nobody on the planet needs to work - just borrow, songlap and feast everyday.

the impt thing is what comes next - 1, 2, 3 yrs... beyond that, hard to tell becos our politics are now completely driving the economics - that can take a turn for the better or worse alto i see the latter with much higher probability.

what is potentially tragic is some of the prolonged structural weaknesses may now be taking hold permanently and may become very difficult to reverse.

on hindsight, one should be terrified by reading and listening to those who were spouting "will never cross 3.70", "with fat reseveres, will surely return to 3.30", "grossly undervalued", etc.

value of a currency, like respect, cannot be demanded. it is earned and given by others. unless u close yr doors to the rest of the world, diy 100% like in cavemen days.

world bank and others have warned putrajaya many times over the years - high debt, over reliance on commodities/low end manufacturing/cheap foreign labor, income disparity, middle income trap, governance. they warned there will be little room to move in a crisis. and here we are.

the individual can only do so much, but doing something is better than doing nothing. becos the higher powers are already doing nothing.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 27 2015, 11:14 AM

right, just don't read hlib comments only.

read others, incl this one:

just curious...

.. the fsm guy - did he describe what it will take to get back to 3.80?

.. anyone speculated it might even go to 6.0 and under what conditions?

a) next 1 year - little change.

b) 2 years out - start gain against rm, maybe 1-2%.

c) After that - continue to gain mildly against rm.

i say that based on commodities incl crude and iron oil not going anywhere for the next 2-3 years.

also, the continued low confidence and unchangeable politics in msia in the same period.

lastly, oz has cut int rate twice, will look to raise rates when it permits.

ok, thanks.

of those recommended, i am surely looking for a good entry point in china equities.

but not yet, china poor biz news still coming out.

rest of em, not so keen.

you did not photoshoppe these numbers?