just a figure of speech.

i actually have one to sell.

i can't remember if u were in the hot-hot-hot prop threads a couple of years ago.

maybe not so hot now.

yes, i agree.

and add these:

.. there are lots of tankers on land and floaters at sea now holding all that excess oil.

.. china been stockpiling and will stockpile more.

it is a fact that the world now has excess oil, no shortage of supply for a long time.

you can have war in one place, other supplies will spring into action to fill the void.

and there are new oilfields being discovered; alternative energy sources being developed, esp solar and wind.

but... there are hedge funds driving price up and down but they only care for own profits in their longs and shorts.

i doubt we will ever see $100 oil again for a long time.

more likely $30-40 low and 50-60 high in the next decade.

i thought the options were 20-80, 50-50 and 80-20.

now, u r talking 0-100 or 100-0!

personally, i rather lean towards 80-20 until things clearly are changing.



as we speak, 4.2835.

currently, us and sg equities incl reits are relatively low priced.

trouble is if u have to liquidate the ones in bursa to buy them, tough...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 11:30 AM

this isn't always easy to decide, can be very emotional.

how to decide "good" and "weak"?

say maybank... bluest of blue.
last 1 yr, rm9.50->rm8.50, -10.5%.

who would have sold it then and go buy say, apple inc?
aapl, 1 yr... $100->115; in rm terms, +45%.


as we speak, 4.2905.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 01:50 PM

good read.

if u think more debt to grow gdp will help, think again.

they can shut their eyes and ears but not for long.


those who keep saying "it's the usd strong, not rm weak" or "other currecnies also drop", try these charts.

if still don't get it, can't help.

3.90 will put the rm as good (or bad) as the thai baht - thailand benefit hugely from cheap oil, big tourist $ but also high debt levels.

i think closer to rupiah. indon has similar major exports like palm oil but much lower debt.

i'll say 4.00-4.10 if investor confidence returns to "normal".

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 04:26 PM

that is well known.

not only props but car loans, credit cards and personal loans for furniture, weddings, tv's, ipads, holidays.

and you keep hearing, "what's wrong with incr debt as long as gdp grows".

so, here we are - the rm falls hard when the wind blows.



as we speak, 4.300.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 04:38 PM

brazil is not msia, but is a good case study.

BRIC - brazil, russia, india, china - the darlings of emerging markets.

well, the brazilian real fell off a cliff against the usd.

what does a country experience in a situation like that?

austerity, hike taxes, cut spending, plug the budget deficit.

plus contracting economy, high inflation, perception of debt default.

again, this is BRAZIL, a good read about the very serious problems that can come with ultra weak currency, high debts, massive corruption:


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 11:28 PM

low inflation figures... u believe?

gdp... let's watch for rest of the year.



as we speak, 4.348, passed last high of 4.339 on sep 8.

the way i see it, our powerful ones have this attitude that everything under the sun can be controlled in their favor.

the words austerity, reduce wastage and cut backs do not exist in their dictionaries - this is the prime problem.

while u see austerity measures in brazil and russia being done now, we hardly see anything here but denials and blame games.

ya, there is 20b to dump into bursa, re-retraining and cash allowance to buy houses for some - but does it do anything at all?!

doing nothing can't improve the current account, can't reduce the budget deficit, can't bring back fdi, can't strengthen the rm.

unless commodities prices rebound esp oil to $70-80, there is no reason to think it will strengthen.

if conditions favor a strengthening, we will first see it in the rupiah and thai baht.

so, 4.50-4.70? u tell me!

the answer will yet become clearer when we see budget 2016 next month.

taiwan's twd lost less than sgd and thai baht.

but their exports under threat, now planning to cut rates, following the footsteps of s korea, oz, nz, indon, india, china.



ringgit so low, are exports exploding?

ringgit so low, how to cut rates?!

"between the devil and the deep blue sea."

gdp still growing, full employment, low npl's.

empty houses never mind, owners can still pay interest.

not so soon. will have to be preceded by full yr long recession.

i expect some easing on top of the fall to 1.43 now.

that will drive domestic rates up, already seen by softening of reit prices lately.

can't hold forever if china, india, oz and soon taiwan cut rates or devalue.

conclusion: usd still best.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 23 2015, 05:29 PM

i like the word APPEARS.

seem; give the impression of being.

tmrw is public holiday, will see on friday.

this alternative report about hlib is quite different:



such low confidence from an ib, might as well say 3.0 to 5.0!

this may push the rm to 4.50 tmrw:

time frame confidence is totally negated by the fact that it was already 4.3x yesterday.

now, 4.38x!

man, this is bad...

oil price tends to soften in usa in winter - much much less driving.

should have at least this amendment/sup before yr end for this early ns spending of rm550 million:
http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/Is-Malaysi...0-mil-on-NS-2-0

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 24 2015, 09:48 AM