zeti says...



27 Sep 2015 11:20 UTC - 28 Sep 2015 11:21 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.42359 low:4.38500 high:4.42829

already 4.4650.

asian champ everyday.

horrifying...

zeti also said:


fx reserves...


yes, looks like 4.50 is coming faster than we thought. 4.475 now.

i think this one has been the main factor of late.

10 yr mgs yield went up to 4.46% yesterday, closing 4.37%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

let's watch end of today and tmrw.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 29 2015, 12:52 PM

this is also very bad.

maybe expectations of something some people know enough, and we don't?

like more and bigger skeletons in the closet coming out soon?

e.g., this?

10 yr mgs yield touched 4.50% today but closed 4.35%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 29 2015, 06:43 PM

4.5, 4.7, 5.0....

what are the major up and coming factors that will determine the value of the rm?

beside usa fed rate hike timing and oil/gas prices, i can think of:

.. rm11 billion bonds maturing tmrw

.. oct 23 budget 2016 tabling

.. oct parliament


.. nov 23 closing date for abu dhabi funds' rm2.5bil rights issues on rhb

what else?

not really.

gbp vs usd:
last 1 yr, 1.62->1.52.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

like crude, there will always be some minor ups and downs due to stocks, inventory count, weather.

cpo also subjected to import/export taxes effect as there are far fewer producers and users of this commodity compared to crude oil.

china... another devaluation is possible but looks unlikely in the immediate term, no indication at this time.

india has just cut int rate by 50bps but should not affect rm too much as india is not among msia's largest trading partners.

rmb has been "pegged" to usd until last month when they devalued.

you can see here the effects of the devaluation in aug:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=CNY&view=1Y

rm is weak, so it continues to lose to rmb after devaluation.

effect of next devaluation, who knows?

like it or not, more of yr epf money is going to mgs with foreigners exiting.

quite right.

which is why it is pretty irrelevant if one is talking about small amounts of rm or a condition that it must be risk free like fd.

however, if one is open to some exposure to fx and/or equity, then usd and other fx becomes attractive.

imo, if we talk about fx exposure, regular cash returns and potential capital gain, sg reits are definitely a great choice.

easier to buy/sell, zero/near zero tax dividends.

even with sg reit prices correcting lately, one still obtained 7-8% return in sgd in the last 1 yr, >20% in rm.

that, of course, is not risk free like fd.

looking ahead, unknowns are: will biz conditions improve or deteriorate in sg, in msia?

will rm gain or lose more against the sgd?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 01:48 PM

i agree.

trying to time, trying to extract every possible advantage... that's elusive, exhaustive, costly and may even be counterproductive!

i prefer to keep things simple enough but know that i have diversified enough at least cost and least effort.

size does matter.

for any transaction involving fx, be it in equities or straight conversions, there are min costs, min brokerage fees, commissions, misc charges.

moreover, for larger amounts, u can be premium customer, get slightly better rates which will translate into significant sums.

e.g. for sgreits bought via local bank - every dividend received is subject to sgd10 (can be sgd8 or 15 depending on bank), irrespective of amount. so, if u have few shares and say, the div is sgd20, u already lost 50%. but if div is sgd 2000, it is 0.5% only.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 03:39 PM

this aspect, needless to say.

it's always cheapest to do "that" in "that" country.

it makes sense if one has a few million rm or sgd or usd.

worth the effort if u are talking about rm50k, rm100k?

like i say, size does matter.

there is also D whose timing was... kept that money in usd since 2008 and then converted to rm last year.

that's good.

move too fast in one direction is way too disruptive, can lead to chaos.

better still, return to 4.25-4.30, people get a chance to sort things out, no panic.

common to have overshoot, either way.

when info change, it starts all over again.

hence the idea "never time the market".

i still see the rm continue to weaken but will get the breaks along the way.


budget 2016 on oct 23 is the one to watch - what budget deficit, what oil/gas price assumption, what pm dept budget.

that's what investors will be looking for.

if pm dept budget is bloated aggressively, higher budget deficit than the revised current yr budget which will surely not make it, and an overly optimistic oil/gas price assumption, you know where the rm will go.

that is +1.39%, same gain for korean won and probably same for the worst hit currencies like brazil.

this, i think is due to usual daily usd fluctuations/weakening.

the worst hit currencies are more sensitive to usd movement.

doubt any bnm intervention.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 06:55 PM