all that news should be all factored in by now.

mgs yield also dropped to 4.18%.

so, maybe that's the best it can do without further positive news - 4.20 thereabout.

i suppose it's back to the fed and oil.

if you mean msia rates and not us rates... yes, of course.

question is if you think there is a higher chance for rate hike or rate cut in next year or so.

or no change year after year.

that, of course.

rate hike when everything else remains constant will boost the rm, like any currency anywhere.

i actually a see a rate cut in the next 6-12 months.

i am forecasting poor gdp figures for the next 2-3 qtrs.

becos of what many retailers said.

and me... still same old car, same old tv...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 26 2015, 09:01 PM

you just bought usd la...



anyway, for interested parties... fed meeting is wed dec 16 which is early thu dec 17 here.

market now priced in 74% of rate hike.

it has been 1 yr of delayed action but it stays strong - due to market expectations it will happen sooner or later.

first hike will probably be a muted event for equities and currencies since all are well prepared by now. still, prices of commodities in usd will surely drop a bit more.

if there is 1st hike, impt to watch is the comments that follow - hawkish or dovish for 2nd hike.

as dec 16 nears, very hard for rm to appr against usd.

more so when crude slips back to 42 again.

will need some real magic to make it happen.

no, i was waiting for <4.20, did not happen.

dates to watch:

opec meeting dec 4
umno meeting dec 8-12
fed meeting dec 16

meanwhile watch oil price...

crude 41.70, brent 44.70 and falling.

if opec meeting announces they will do nothing which is likely since the idea was to kill shale, it will go below last low of 38.

you mean here, morning dec 17th, thu.

yellen usually speaks right after the 2 day meeting (dec 15-16) ends.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 30 2015, 02:55 PM

been known a long time.

can't go wrong with this:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...mccalendars.htm

cnbc also been reporting dec 15-16.

just don't scramble to buy/sell fx on dec 18!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 30 2015, 03:24 PM

aud in for a fresh bashing?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...holdings-expand

it is strange isn't it...?

low oil price = weaken isis, but also shit for saudi, us shale fellas... and russia.

russia will be devastated if it goes on for long. russia to join isis, bomb a few places to raise oil price?!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-russia-in-2016

i am of the view the conspiracy theories are overstated (btw, check rwi section - all kinds of conspiracies told by many, good entertainment.

the fact remains - 3 bil barrels of crude sitting pretty on barges, supertankers, depots... nobody wants. china's factories are in worse shape than most think. iran isn't even producing normal capacity. who's gonna buy and use all that oil? will need 5 yrs, unless opec and non-opec incl msia all cut output by 30%.