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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 30 2015, 07:07 PM)
Indonesia unveils measures aimed to stabilise rupiah
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...piah/?style=biz

Will M'sia follow suit?
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need to understand this...

meaning... bank indon issuing foreign currency debt?

borrowing fx to fight fx? shakehead.gif

woo... how are they going to redeem them in future?

with only 105 billion usd in fx reserves...
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/...change-reserves

looks like just another risky way to peg the rupiah... sweat.gif

Key steps include the planned issuance of Bank Indonesia certificates in foreign currency and central bank intervention in the forward market for rupiah, in order contain expectations on how much more it might depreciate.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 08:10 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 11:41 PM

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indonesia exported smog and haze over here.

now they are worried msia is exporting financial contagion to them! laugh.gif

QUOTE
Indonesia seeks immunity from Malaysia ‘contagion’
Published: 30 September 2015 9:13 PM | Updated: 30 September 2015 10:43 PM

Speaking to Reuters today, Indonesia's finance minister Bambang Brodjonegoro says his country is worried about the contagion effect that the drastic drop in the Malaysian ringgit could have on the rupiah, which is also at a 17-year low against the US dollar currently. – Reuters pic, September 30, 2015.

Indonesia will seek to shield itself from the spread of any financial contagion from Malaysia by improving market sentiment and using government borrowing to boost dollar inflows, the finance minister said today.

Twin declines in the rupiah and reserves have revived memories of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, and concern about contagion from Malaysia, which is in the grips of an escalating political and financial crisis linked to a struggling state investment fund, are at the front of investors' minds.

"We are worried about the contagion effect," Bambang Brodjonegoro told Reuters in an interview.

The rupiah is one of Asia's worst-performing currencies this year, down by 15.44%, and is trading at 17-year lows against the US dollar. The finance ministry is working with the central bank to replenish reserves by prioritising foreign-currency borrowing, Brodjonegoro said. "There are a lot of outflows, so we need to somehow cover with inflows, and of course inflows will depend on government bonds and our borrowing strategy," the minister said, adding that the government has secured commitments from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and KfW Development Bank. Finance ministry officials have said Indonesia has secured US$4.2 billion (RM18.52 billion) loans from the multilateral lenders to finance its budget deficit this year.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.s6UtInHq.dpuf


AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 08:38 AM)
If this tactic is coming from another economy, I would have no doubt that there is a good shot at this. But from INdon, I'll stay aside.

The periodic coupon servicing in the USD will start to kill them slowly before they can even start to take actions to reform the economy and to prop up the rupiah.
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indonesia may actually be fine with this move becos it does not have that much debt, <40% gdp compared to msia's >100%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alaysia-suffers

moreover, it seems they have secured it from the proper banks.
QUOTE
the government has secured commitments from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and KfW Development Bank. Finance ministry officials have said Indonesia has secured US$4.2 billion (RM18.52 billion) loans from the multilateral lenders to finance its budget deficit this year.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...aysia-contagion


if msia wants to do the same, will those banks say, "go find a donor"? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 10:41 AM

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will definitely be interesting to see this 1% deficit budget 2016 on oct 23.

QUOTE
Malaysia will not return to pegging the ringgit or any other form of capital control, Datuk Seri Najib Razak told fund managers and businessmen in New York, as the currency sees its worst performance in 17 years against the US dollar.

The prime minister instead said the government would revise its projections downwards to cope with weakening oil and commodity prices, the New Straits Times reported him as saying.

“We are committed to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but I have to be frank with you that we may not achieve a fully balanced budget but may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%,” he was quoted as saying at a breakfast meeting attended by US fund managers and Malaysian businessmen.

While “internal adjustment” would be made, he added, “I would like to reiterate that we will not impose capital control measures or peg the ringgit,” NST quoted him as saying.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.kmhr37nE.dpuf


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 1 2015, 10:43 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 1 2015, 11:46 AM)
The statement said, instead of previous targeting a balance budget by 2020, now with current situation, the target would be probably around -1%.

It doesn't say 2016 deficit in -1%.
Unrealistic to see 2016 to have a deficit -1%.
A reduction of deficit compared to previous year is already a very good news.

If the 2016 budget deficit is indeed -1%, it will provide a lot of catalyst for RM to the upside.
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so, u read it as a -2.2% deficit?

i read it as -1% becos of the use of the words "in the region of" and not "a reduction".

well, he can always say he was misquoted. laugh.gif

[I]may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%[/I]
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 1 2015, 05:42 PM)
1.00 USD  =  4.40 MYR

1.00 SGD  =  3.08 MYR

1.00 GBP  =  6.66 MYR
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good la... stable.

crude price also quite stable for last few weeks.

just get prepared for price hikes of 30-35% this quarter.

hv not seen data for msia, but from this report about indonesia: "70-80 percent of their costs are linked to the U.S. dollar and imported materials".
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/29/tupperware-...ker-rupiah.html
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 1 2015, 06:07 PM)
yup. price hike is confirm cry.gif
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well... we're better off than kazakhstan, syria, brazil or russia where prices probably more than doubled. tongue.gif

ok, we're fairly superior, no? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 06:16 PM)
I suspect the full effect of the RM depreciation has not trickled down fully into all aspects of our society yet. Wait for a few more months....
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surely.

some will hit bad with... fast food - burgers, buns, cheese, fries, pizza dough/flour - all imported ingredients.

students will be hit with price incr for books, stationery, calculators, shoes, uniforms - almost all imported.

old/sick folks will be hit with.. healthcare/medication - some will now turn to gomen hospitals 100%.

new parents will be hit for infant formula, diapers, cereals...

others.... pc's, tablets, car spare parts, house repairs...

nothing will escape, not even ikan bilis. maybe kangkung will stay cheap.

we don't really make or grow much here, do we?
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(xein @ Oct 1 2015, 06:38 PM)
ala... you guys already know this...but i'll write again.

prices will increase as long as no seller wants to decrease it.
Look at what happened since the petrol price floating.
When oil price increase, everything increase.
When oil price decrease, how many items' price decrease?

It is all up to the people.
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u sound like u r holding the sellers responsible for price incr...?

are u in biz?

this thread is about value of rm, not just petrol price!
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Oct 1 2015, 07:04 PM)
wa, so negative, I want to get out. cry.gif
The budget shortfall may be "in the region" of 1% of gross domestic product at the end of the decade compared with a current deficit of 3.2%, the New Straits Times reported, citing Najib’s comments to fund managers and investors in New York. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.BtJ4wTvd.dpuf
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hmm... this one seems to say there'll be many more years of budget deficit.

no surprise.

make yr own judgment where the rm will go...
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 07:01 PM)
Good. Let's see how such people adjust. I bet with you they will have a hard time. Imagine drinking starbucks everyday and suddenly starbucks increase.
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this one, some of these franchisees will just give up, close down.

then, cheaper kopi "shops" will emerge.

rm10 a coffee becomes rm5, still can make a profit.

standard and gaya, no more la....
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 07:35 PM)
Even if such a miracle can happen to the RM, do you think the sellers outside will lower back their prices to the time when the USD was = 3.8 RM ? After prices have gone up, do you think sellers will lower back down so easily ?
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are you a fan of mcD, kfc or pizza hut?

for an answer, keep a close watch on their prices and serving size.

to me, these are are best gauges for managed inflation and gomen intentions for the rakyat - becos they are bn-crony tight.
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:26 PM)
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...s-fund-managers
<< “We are committed to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but I have to be frank with you that we may not achieve a fully balanced budget but may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%,” he was quoted as saying at a breakfast meeting attended by US fund managers and Malaysian businessmen.>>
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...E.Vz3Q9Dwq.dpuf

AVFAN,

Read carefully.  He is targeting budget deficit of 1% at 2020.  That also means that it will be business as usual of 3.X% or more budget deficit from now until 2020.

Dreamer
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ya, the second report is worded differently from the initial one.

surely the deficit will remain or go higher. if not, how to keep the bloated civil service, big pm dept and br1m spending?

the only remaining question is.... how much will gst be increased - this one, all eyes will be watching.


QUOTE(alexanderclz @ Oct 1 2015, 08:32 PM)
it's all about whether you are willing to spend or not. most who go starbucks probably middle income and above. compare it to cigarettes, as expensive as they are, the lower income fellas spend a lot on them per month - and they dare to say they have no money. it's all about your priority
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sure.

it's about elastic and inelastic demand.

diehards will still smoke or starbuck even at rm50 a go. biggrin.gif

question is will there be enough of them to keep all the joints open or some will have to close.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 1 2015, 08:41 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 10:30 AM

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weakness returning... 4.4458

due to this...?

QUOTE
Najib signals delay in balancing budget in address to investors - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...d.a2wbsovv.dpuf

AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 11:09 AM

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2 external reasons why the rm will remain weak against the usd for some time:

QUOTE
Is this the mother of all warnings on EMs?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/01/emerging-ma...since-1988.html

Heads Dollar Wins, Tails It Rises: It's All Good for Greenback
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...d-for-greenback


AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 2 2015, 01:24 PM)
The USD is strengthening against the SGD as we speak.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDSGD%...ing":true}

My USD funds parked in the bank is gaining strength, as I predicted. But since I am not ready to buy any SGX assets yet, I will continue to let the USD stay as it is until the prices of REITs and dividend stocks cannot be refused anymore.

Then I will fire !
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just don't count until u miss the coming dividend season for sg reits! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 2 2015, 04:41 PM)
today, 10 yr mgs high 4.16%, closed 4.14%.

looks like either local funds in a buying frenzy or foreigners have not been selling like crazy.

we'll wait for next foreign holding %, whether 46-47% has changed or not.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 2 2015, 03:48 PM)
If RM remains at 4.40, then who is the dummy ?  tongue.gif
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given all that is happening, it is very possible it will hover 4.40-4.50 for weeks/months.

key factor will be budget 2016 on oct 23.

i will wait for that to make major decisions on rm-fx.
AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 2 2015, 10:37 PM)
The US job data announced today is pretty weak, that could send in the new trend for currency market for short term as well.

Treasuries is below 2% after the job data, that investors bet there may no hike at all for this year.

The slowdown global economy is starting taking its toll.

This is why I keep on emphasis that history has showed us, there is always unpredictable event may occur.
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no rate hike is good also - sg reit prices will gain a couple of % next week.


hansel will miss bigtime! laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 2 2015, 11:36 PM)
Hansel aiming for long term. So more units /SGD that he can buy.
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no ler...

if no rate hike soon or indefinitely, usd will weaken.

sgd gets a little stronger, he'll get even less units with usd. tongue.gif


AVFAN
post Oct 2 2015, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 2 2015, 11:43 PM)
Job market no good --> economy no good --> US stock market down --> SGX down
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alternatively.... job market no good->no rate hike->stocks improve->sgx stocks also improve.

all reports say $ are still fleeing emerging markets.

where does the money go? us bonds, developed markets... sgx too? tongue.gif



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