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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 19 2015, 06:44 PM)
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AVFAN,

You need to add one more item.

In Malaysia, for most Malaysians, 20+% of their gross income are put into EPF as a form of forced savings. Hence, by default, most Malaysians has most of their savings and investment invested to THE GOVERNMENT's bond and GLCs. If they do nothing else like invest or save in foreign currency, they will be highly expose to USD/RM exchange risk.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 20 2015, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 20 2015, 06:54 AM)
bTW AUD, sgd & usd INVESTMENT, which will be a better choice?
In 5 years time my kid will most likely go to one of these countries for tertiary education and spend 500k, although I ask him to aim for scholarship. Oz is very dependent on Commodities, Spore on Asean, CHina n US economies and US is one of the biggest debtor in the world. Would their currencies still be as strong as now in 5 years time, and appreciated another 35% against MYR.

The above post suggested OZ and Spore will be in trouble too, so left with US only?

BTW OT, is it wise to entice a child to study hard to get a scholarship so that 500k will go into his pocket? tongue.gif  sign0006.gif
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MGM,

Why don't you convert some of your RM into all 3 currencies now?? That makes the most sense.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 20 2015, 09:34 PM

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Folks,

1) It should be OBVIOUS to you now that Malaysia's fundamental is bad. And, it is getting worse. So, if the political situation stabilize and RM recover, it is only temporary. That gives you a chance to move your money out.

2) Fiat money and so on.. If you worry enough, buy some gold jewelry and coin and keep them in a safe place.

3) Kid future and so on...

A) The best gift to my children is that they no longer need to live in Malaysia.

B) I trained and taught my kid to earn, save, and invest. Both of them have Vanguard mutual fund while they are in high school. They will graduate from college with no debt and a bit of investment. The rest is up to them.

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dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 12:18 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 20 2015, 11:47 PM)
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Both good times and bad times will not last forever. Just that now is the bad times and we have to ride it through until the good times return. Zeti said not more than 18 months based on our past experience   thumbup.gif
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Showtime747,

The richest countries in South East Asia during the 1960s were Burma / Myanmar and Philippine. Hong Kong Chinese were so poor that many of them went to Philippine and worked as maid for Rich Chinese in Philippine.

So, where are them NOW?? Did they ever recover??

<<Zeti said not more than 18 months based on our past experience>>

Without Extra Oil Money, there will be no recovery this time. There are no past experiences to go by since Malaysia was bailed out by Extra Oil Money past few times.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 21 2015, 12:19 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 12:57 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 12:47 AM)
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Nothing, good or bad, will last forever.
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Showtime747,

<<Nothing, good or bad, will last forever.>>

1) It only need to last long enough to make a person bankrupt. A person does not have UNLIMITED amount of money to survive that long.

2) A person does not live forever.

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VT+Profile

3) Why ONLY invest in ONE country?? Why put all your eggs into ONE basket??

The above ETF invest on the largest 7,500 public listed companies across 47 countries. A person only need a few thousands USD to start.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 05:59 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 01:16 AM)
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When a person is positive and open minded, the world is more beautiful. You never know death actually is a good thing. Think about it....
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Showtime747,

My only NEGATIVE is about Malaysia and NOTHING else. And, if a person look at how far had Malaysia gone down over this past 40+ years and still think it can recover, the person is not REALISTIC.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 21 2015, 06:00 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 07:20 AM)
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Does the graph occurs to you that "how far had Malaysia GONE DOWN over this past 40+ years...." ? Isn't that negative if you think so ?
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Showtime747,

<< Does the graph occurs to you that "how far had Malaysia GONE DOWN over this past 40+ years...." ? Isn't that negative if you think so ? >>

I am ONLY NEGATIVE about Malaysia. Not about the rest of the world. If you believe that Malaysia can and will recover without the help of oil money, I wish you best of luck.

I had divested from Malaysia. I am prepared.

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dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 08:32 AM)
Even with an uptrend graph from a reliable source cannot convince you that Malaysia has not "gone down over the past 40+years", it shows only one thing : you still keep your "reputation" in LYN - the "unconvinceable never wrong guy" tongue.gif

Not only you divested from Malaysia lah. I am not 100% out of Malaysia, but I have enough outside of the country to tie me over all eventuality. Any seasoned investors should have looked at risk diversification be it good or bad times

Those who haven't done so should do it. Maybe not 100% leaving the country like unker, but a good proportion. The RM depreciation should be enough of a wake up call
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Showtime747,

Why argue and debate?? We will know soon enough. Malaysia had ran out of Oil Money. We will know soon enough whether Malaysia can recover without Oil Money.

My goal was to save as many people from this sinking ship.

A) If people do not see this by now, they had done nothing to prepare for this. It is TOO LATE... So, why argue??

B) If people had seen this, they would had done something. I do not need to tell them.

In summary, I wish people best of luck.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 21 2015, 08:47 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 09:07 AM)
dreamer101, you mentioned etfneeds a few thousand dollars right? Is rm5000 enough to start?
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Ramjade,

1) You need a few thousands in RM as emergency fund FIRST before thinking about investing anywhere.

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3649045

2) Ask people on this thread for the minimum requirement.

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dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 09:54 AM)
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Hence I conclude you have too much negative energy on malaysia's outlook.
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Showtime747,

<<Would you be able to set a timeframe ?>>

It is your money and your life. You have to make the RIGHT BET before it is too late. You have to live with your decision. I had placed my bet. You have to decide on your own.

I wish you best of luck.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 21 2015, 10:13 AM)
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Oil revenue will increase eventually,
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icemanfx,

It will not. Malaysia had reached peak oil production a few years ago. So, even if the oil price did not go down, Malaysia will have less oil money.

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dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 21 2015, 10:40 AM)
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It seems o&g reserve off Sabah is very substantial,
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icemanfx,

LOL!!! Thank you for a good joke!!

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dreamer101
post Sep 21 2015, 10:02 PM

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Folks,

For those people that keep on changing my words, let me be VERY ACCURATE on what I am saying.

1) I am taking about Oil Money. Not Oil reserve and so on...

2) Malaysia may still have Oil Reserve but Oil Money can run out first.

3) Malaysia earn Oil Money by

A) Exporting more Oil and Gas than its own consumption. Aka, net exporter. Given that Malaysia has higher quality crude oil (sweet) than it needs to consume and sweet crude oil is worth a lot more money, Malaysia can be a small net importer and still earn Oil Money.

B) The difference between export and import multiply by Oil Price is the Oil Money.

C) Actually, Malaysia export more Natural Gas than crude oil. So, natural gas price affect oil money more. Asian had the highest price for natural gas. Asian Natural Gas price has not collapse yet. So, the worse is yet to come. Asian Natural Gas price is dued for a drop when US start exporting natural gas.

In summary, I am saying Malaysia is running out of Oil Money. It is not Oil Reserve. Malaysia is not running out of oil and gas.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 21 2015, 10:27 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 22 2015, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:37 PM)
When ?
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Showtime747,

If you are really interested, check out my "sinking ship" thread at RWI forum.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 22 2015, 08:19 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 07:18 AM)
If you are really a man with balls and meant what you say, it is only a one line statement to type here. Is that very difficult ?

A prediction without time frame is like predicting "Malaysia will win the World Cup one day". I can BS and can never be proven wrong.

Or are you not confident enough about your own belief ? I thought you want to be "VERY ACCURATE" in what you are saying ?
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Showtime747,

1) You need to hope that I am wrong. You need to hope that it is not too late.. I don't. I am prepared. Malaysia's economy can crash any time and it would not matter to me. In summary, you need to know when. I don't.

2) I wish you best of luck.

3) I am reaching a point in time that I no longer care to argue or debate about this. I had written and posted too many posts on this. If you are interested, you can read my posts and look at number and come up your own conclusion for the time frame.

4) You cannot buy confidence. You have to believe it yourself.

Dreamer



dreamer101
post Sep 22 2015, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 22 2015, 02:23 PM)
Well,... not really,... the prop flippers can do a cutloss and selloff to get back whatever returns to go into foreign investments. The goldbug can hold-on to their gold investments and wait, or if they have everything in gold investments, then do a cutloss on half-position only..

LIke I said, it is not too late if the clamp has not been made to movement of funds.
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Hansel,

<<the prop flippers can do a cutloss>>

1) You are assuming that the flipper is not over-leverage.

2) You are assuming that there are buyers. In a severe crash, the property price is going down every day. So, why would people buy even if they have money?? They would get a better deal by waiting.

3) Bank will stop loaning money due to NPL problem.

<<LIke I said, it is not too late if the clamp has not been made to movement of funds.>>

4) That was imposed in 97/98. It had happened before.

Over the past few Malaysia crashes, Malaysia's economy was bailed out by Oil Money. Malaysia did not pursue economy reform. The economy fundamental is progressing getting worse.

5) Even before the crash and record oil price, there is not enough Oil Money for THE GOVERNMENT to spend. So, THE GOVERNMENT's debt increase by 40 to 50 billions per year over the last few years. Now, people are assuming that there are Extra Oil Money to bail Malaysia out again if the crash happen??

6) Can Malaysia recover from the next crash without Extra Oil Money?? If you believe yes, I wish you best of luck.

Dreamer

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3374996

P.S.: For people that are interested, you can check out above for the information that indicate THE GOVERNMENT is running out of Oil Money.

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 22 2015, 09:09 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 23 2015, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 23 2015, 12:03 PM)
These goons do not understand how to manage a budget. That's why EVERy year they have to have a supplementary budget.
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prophetjul,

1) Correction. Every year, they have 2 supplementary budgets for previous year's budget.

2) Some people believe that Malaysia has unlimited Oil Money. So, "Don't worry, be happy!!"

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 25 2015, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 25 2015, 07:03 AM)
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The 1998 capital control turned out well, didn't it?
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MGM,

Malaysia had Extra Oil Money in 1997/1998. Now, Petronas has cash flow problem and need to use its own cash reserve.

Enjoy the show!!!

It will not be like any crashes that Malaysia had before.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 25 2015, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 25 2015, 12:50 PM)
U.S.A.
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 25 2015, 12:52 PM)
only USA?  hmm.gif  others countries all doomed incl SG  tongue.gif
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Folks,

Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. That applies to USA too. Use ETF to invest the whole world.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 25 2015, 10:22 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 26 2015, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 26 2015, 03:40 PM)
that article, while being sarcastic or satirical, does point to the highest possibility outcome.

one can sing, shout and thump chests, whatever...

the rm has only one direction to go, at least for the foreseeable future.

we are at what we are with some headwind.

imagine what it will be if a global hurricane hits.
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AVFAN,

If you believe that, then, your only possible conclusion is Malaysia's economy is heading toward a crash. The only question left is whether Malaysia's economy can recover from the crash without Extra Oil Money?? And, how long will it takes?? 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years... For most people, 20 years or longer = never.

The other question that a person need to asked is

Are you PREPARED for a crash that takes X years to recover?? Whatever you believe X to be.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 26 2015, 08:50 PM

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