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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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dreamer101
post Oct 14 2015, 11:26 PM

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Folks,

There is an additional advantage of diversification with asset allocation and re-balancing. You always "Buy Low and Sell High".

So, let's say you put 50% into US stock index ETF and 50% into non-US World stock index.

If US stock goes down and non-US stock world index goes up,

You sell world index (high) and buy US stock index (Low).

Ditto, if US stock goes up and non-US stock world index goes down.

You sell US stock (high) and buy world index (low).

You can do this with multiple asset classes across multiple countries with FIXED percentage.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Oct 14 2015, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(chengcheng @ Oct 14 2015, 11:02 PM)
Is it too late to take positions?
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chengcheng,

Are you over-exposed to MYR?? Do you have any savings / investment outside of MYR?? If not, it is never too late to diversify and protect yourself.

Spread your money out and do it a bit at a time to avoid hitting the low.

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dreamer101
post Oct 14 2015, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Oct 14 2015, 11:29 PM)
what if both index down? would you dump more money into each to apply the buy low sell high theory? sometimes it is just too hard to predict market movement.  sad.gif
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QUOTE(ohcipala @ Oct 14 2015, 11:29 PM)
Do you change the percentage according to current market situation or is it fixed forever?
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Folks,

1) It is fixed forever.

<< what if both index down? would you dump more money into each to apply the buy low sell high theory? sometimes it is just too hard to predict market movement.>>

2) No, you do not dump more money in.

3) You do not sell unless the ratio between them changes.

4) You do not need to predict market movement.

https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=2843370

5) If you are interested, check above thread.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 15 2015, 09:29 AM
dreamer101
post Oct 24 2015, 07:33 AM

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http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/316913

<< The Finance Ministry, in its 2015/2016 Economic Report released today, said as at end-June 2015, the Federal Government debt, comprising the cumulative total of all Federal government borrowings, stood at RM627.5 billion (54 percent of GDP).

The report is issued in conjunction with the tabling of the 2016 Budget today by Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, who is also Finance Minister.

"The debt has increased (2014: RM582.8 billion) mainly due to higher domestic debt issuance to meet deficit financing requirements," it said.>>

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/277234

<< Contingent liability goes up

As of June 2014, the federal government debt has increased to RM568.9 billion from RM539.9 billion at the end of December 2013. >>

12/2013 539.9 billions
06/2014 568.9 billions increase of 29 billions
12/2014 582.8 billions increase of 13.9 billions
06/2015 627.5 billions increase of 44.7 billions

Folks,

Federal Government's debt had increased from 582.8 billions to 627.5 billions as of end-June 2015. An increase of 44.7 billions.

In summary, for first 6 months of 2015, THE GOVERNMENT's debt had increased as much as the whole year of 2014.

"Don't worry, be happy!!!"
"Not too bad!!"

Or,

Enjoy the show!!

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Oct 24 2015, 07:36 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 24 2015, 01:35 AM)
Okay,... but even if bit by bit, still there will be increase, and if the purchasing power parity does not increase in tandem with GST increase, GDP growth will definitely be affected too. THe problem here lies in the income level of the people.
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Hansel,

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/316887

<< Budget allocations:

- 2016 Budget allocates a total of RM267.2 billion, an increase from a revised allocation of RM260.7 billion for 2015. The initial allocation for 2015 was RM273.9 billion.

- For 2016, federal government revenue collection is projected at RM225.7 billion, up RM3.2 billion from 2015. >>

Folks,

So, officially, before the usual 2 additional supplementary budgets for 2015, the budget deficit is

2015 Expense 260.7
2015 Revenue 222.5 (225.7 - 3.2)

2015 Deficit = 38.2 billions

So, with 6% of GST, the budget deficit will be at least 38 billions.

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dreamer101
post Oct 24 2015, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(chengcheng @ Oct 24 2015, 09:34 AM)
Another thing is it's easy to plan...

Are they spending according to plan?
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chengcheng,

THE GOVERNMENT consistently overspend. Hence, there are always 2 additional supplementary budgets per year. So, the actual budget deficit is always higher than the budget for the last few years.

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/292879

<< The federal government has tabled a supplementary bill seeking a RM 2.2 billion addition to the 2014 federal budget, their second supplementary bill for this budget.

The amount requested is in addition to a RM4.1 billion additional budget the government had sought through a first supplementary bill for the 2014 budget in June last year. >>

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 24 2015, 09:52 AM
dreamer101
post Nov 15 2015, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 14 2015, 07:27 PM)
Not upbeat, but neutral/indifferent.

I would like to see RM tanked and political landscape overturned. But I don't see this possibly happening. They will do something to save themselves.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 15 2015, 12:04 AM)
i hv a slightly diff view.

i do not see the rm diving anymore but undergo slow decay in the next 2-3 years.

save themselves they will but not everybody! i don't see where the major improvement in the economy is going to come from. i can only see higher taxes, sale of land and more debt on top of continued plunder, wastage and financial/accounting games. same actors, same act, same results.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Folks,

They will save themselves and leave Malaysia to rot.

It is VERY SIMPLE and OBVIOUS for EVERYONE to see.

1) Even if they increase GST and so on, they will OVERSPEND and increase THE GOVERNMENT's debt by at least 40 to 50 billions per year. They have been doing this consistently over the last few years. Why do you THINK that it will change??

2) I do not believe the decay will be gradual due to compounding interest of THE GOVERNMENT's debt.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Nov 15 2015, 08:00 AM
dreamer101
post Nov 23 2015, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2015, 10:09 PM)
imagine China withdraws from US treasuries  sweat.gif
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...dn-t-care-less-
<< This year alone, China’s holdings have fallen about $200 billion as it raises money in support of its flagging economy and stock market. >>

nexona88,

Why do you need to imagine when it had happened??

See above...

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dreamer101
post Nov 24 2015, 01:27 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 23 2015, 10:47 PM)
Unker,

About 1 month left to year end. Most probably RM will not fall to 4.7/4.8. What do you think ?
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Showtime747,

Let's say that it did not happened. Then, we will have to wait and see what happened after TPPA signed around 1/2016. That will be the other significant event in near term.

Dreamer



dreamer101
post Nov 24 2015, 07:26 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 24 2015, 07:04 AM)
Ok fair enough. We will see if TPPA has any significant effect. But are you sure TPPA can be wrapped up by 1/2016 ?
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Showtime747,

I believe that is when it is scheduled to vote.

Dreamer

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