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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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dreamer101
post Sep 28 2015, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM)
i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
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prophetjul,

MYR will drop against USD. AUD may drop against USD. So, my guess is AUD will strengthen against MYR. If I am you, I would exchange some of the needed expense to USD and AUD now. Do not keep them at MYR.

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dreamer101
post Sep 28 2015, 10:10 PM

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http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/asian-lng-p...pply-jumps.html
<< Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could fall a further 25 percent in coming months as new supply, falling demand and weaker oil prices put it on par with iron ore and coal as the worst performing commodity of recent years. >>

Folks,

Malaysia is a big natural gas exporter. In the near term, Asian natural gas price will drop as US start exporting natural gas. So, it will get a lot worse..

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 29 2015, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Sep 29 2015, 10:20 PM)
Is it almost time to take profit on the usd related foreign reserves?
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Roger89,

What makes you think that MYR will not drop even more?? In fact, the likelihood of MYR stop dropping over the next 3 months is very slim.

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dreamer101
post Sep 29 2015, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 28 2015, 10:10 PM)
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/asian-lng-p...pply-jumps.html
<< Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could fall a further 25 percent in coming months as new supply, falling demand and weaker oil prices put it on par with iron ore and coal as the worst performing commodity of recent years. >>

Folks,

Malaysia is a big natural gas exporter.  In the near term, Asian natural gas price will drop as US start exporting natural gas.  So, it will get a lot worse..

Dreamer
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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Sep 29 2015, 10:54 PM)
I'm thinking the MYR may reach a temporary low this week. As for when and how soon it will breach 4.7 i dunno. Maybe pretty soon.

The USD rally against MYR have been a year now. I could be wrong. In this environment, what is oversold can become really oversold.
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Roger89,

You are forgetting the FUNDAMENTAL. Read above. The rally is fueled by oil and gas price drop. The worst is yet to come..

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dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 12:56 AM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Sep 29 2015, 11:20 PM)
^ thank you. Just hold on tight.
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Roger89,

<<Just hold on tight.>>

??? If I am you and I have more cash in RM, I would exchange more RM to USD. Hold on tight is NOT what I would do.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:24 PM)
like it or not, more of yr epf money is going to mgs with foreigners exiting.
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:31 PM)
Yield about 4-5%. Not bad for EPF. Last time only 2% to 3+%.

7% dividend in coming !!

Judging from how much my RM loss its value, must think positive a bit  sweat.gif
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Folks,

You should know that there is not enough money (cash flow) to cover this hole from the domestic source.

The largest pool of money in Malaysia is the EPF at around 600+billions. This is life time 20+% contribution of 1+ millions people. The usual budget deficit is 40 to 50 billions. So, there is not enough EPF contribution coming in every year to finance the budget deficit. We have not even count in the reduce contribution from Petronas yet.

Beyond EPF, the other fund is much much smaller with a lot less cash flow.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 09:27 PM)
Unker,

We are talking about MGS, specifically foreigner's holding. And whether Zeti's comment is reasonable that EPF, PNB, Tabung Haji can cover for those maturing MGS.

As always, time frame is important. For MGS, you have to find out how much is the MGS maturing in the next 1 year (ie short term debt)

Then only you can put your comment in perspective. Without a time frame, you can only arrive at an opinion which is too macro and not meaningful

Again, time frame is important
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Showtime747,

<<As always, time frame is important. For MGS, you have to find out how much is the MGS maturing in the next 1 year (ie short term debt)>>

No, I am not talking about maturing MGS. The usual annual budget deficit is 40 to 50 billions per year aka 40 to 50 billions NEW MGS.

So, tell me can the DOMESTIC SOURCE cover this hole?? The short answer is NO. THE GOVERNMENT will have to increase tax of some sort. I bet is on GST.

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dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 10:07 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


When 1998 crisis "exploded" time, many taught it is dead and buried, KLCI sink to 300, RM to 4.80.
But years later, KLCI recovered to 700, and became 1200 10 years later, and 1800 15 years later, which nobody can guess.
Last time, many also said the same thing, no catalyst for the RM or KLCI to turn around.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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cherroy,

That was fueled by Extra Oil Money and Super Commodity Bull Cycle. And, the FUNDAMENTAL got worse since then.

In any case, as an investor, use diversification to protect oneself. Do not put all your eggs into one basket...

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 30 2015, 10:13 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 10:17 PM)
You quoted AVFAN and me, which the topic of discussion is about Zeti's comment. Not about the budget deficit.

I have read what you said above at least 4-5 times in this thread. I am sure most regulars here already taken note of your comment. You are repeating it like an old jumping vinyl records

If you feel it is necessary to repeat, then put your comment in your signature. Don't need to waste your time writing out again and again
Edit : BTW, include also your "no more oil money this time" in your signature tongue.gif
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Showtime747,

1) Zeti's comment was domestic source can cover the maturing MGS. My comment is if there is NO NEW MGS, it might be true. But, given that THE GOVERNMENT will have 40 to 50 billions of budget deficit every year, there will be 40 to 50 billions of NEW MGS. Along with MATURING MGS, the domestic source cannot cover ALL the new and maturing MGS.

So, do you agree or disagree with me??

2) "no more oil money"

If people keep on assuming that Malaysia can recover like 97/98 and 2008 aka "business as usual", I will remind people that this time will be different. If you want to stop me from repeating, you should stop people from repeating that Malaysia will recover just like 97/98 and 2008.

Dreamer



dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 10:41 AM)
will definitely be interesting to see this 1% deficit budget 2016 on oct 23.
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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...s-fund-managers


<< “We are committed to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but I have to be frank with you that we may not achieve a fully balanced budget but may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%,” he was quoted as saying at a breakfast meeting attended by US fund managers and Malaysian businessmen.>>
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...E.Vz3Q9Dwq.dpuf

AVFAN,

Read carefully. He is targeting budget deficit of 1% at 2020. That also means that it will be business as usual of 3.X% or more budget deficit from now until 2020.

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dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 07:01 PM)
Good. Let's see how such people adjust. I bet with you they will have a hard time. Imagine drinking starbucks everyday and suddenly starbucks increase. Or go fancy restaurant every weekend, suddenly price increase. Let's see how well they adjust.
Good. This will "open" people's eyes. Fertilizer increase. Seeds increase. Wages stay the same. You know what I am talking about.  whistling.gif
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Ramjade,

You are in the same boat. You are 100% invested in ASx. So, you are not safe from RM drop either. You need to adjust too if RM drop further.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 08:40 PM)
ya, the second report is worded differently from the initial one.

surely the deficit will remain or go higher. if not, how to keep the bloated civil service, big pm dept and br1m spending?

the only remaining question is.... how much will gst be increased - this one, all eyes will be watching.
sure.

it's about elastic and inelastic demand.

diehards will still smoke or starbuck even at rm50 a go. biggrin.gif

question is will there be enough of them to keep all the joints open or some will have to close.
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AVFAN,

I believe it will be a combination of "Fuel Tax" and GST...

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dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
You may be anti ASX. But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Ramjade,

<<But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. >>

LOL!! It is OBVIOUS that you DO NOT KNOW ASx. So, WHY do you invest on something you DO NOT KNOW??

<<I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide.>>

Why do you invest on ASx that you DO NOT KNOW??

Dreamer




dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 10:06 PM)
Yes I do not know ASX well when I started. But do you think those uncle and aunties know? They don't. As long as ASX can pay 6.x%/year, they will have subscriber. Cause people want stable returns yearly. And I am one of them. Stable yearly moderately high returns, no need for monitoring.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Ramjade,

1) You still do not know ASx now.

<< But do you think those uncle and aunties know?>>

2) It is YOUR MONEY. What those uncles and aunties did with their money is their problem.

<<Heck do you think that those uncle and aunties not on LYN knows about the recent concern?>>

3) Most people that I know do not invest on ASx. They do not trust THE GOVERNMENT. So, they will not invest with any GLIC like PNB. So, I guess I hang around with smarter uncles and aunties.

<<With PNB saying ASX = national interest, do you think they want to change that? >>

4) You trust THE GOVERNMENT. I wish you best of luck.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Oct 2 2015, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 2 2015, 10:30 AM)
weakness returning... 4.4458

due to this...?
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AVFAN,

So, basically, if the RM hit 4.7/4.8 before end of the year, it would had dropped more than 6% from now. This will wipe out any dividend gain by the ASX folks that stay in.

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dreamer101
post Oct 2 2015, 09:21 PM

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Folks,

Given that RM had dropped from 3.6 to 4.X since the beginning of the year, the ASx had lost their purchasing power even with 6+% dividend. The question here is will ASx holder lose more than their dividend gain if they either stay in ASX or buy more ASx from NOW. So, if the exchange rate hit 4.7/4.8 by year end, the ASX holder will lose more than their dividend.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 2 2015, 09:29 PM
dreamer101
post Oct 2 2015, 09:28 PM

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QUOTE(alexanderclz @ Oct 2 2015, 06:03 PM)
yep. i do agree we can only hope for the best. it's our country after all. while there are many experts here in lowyat, there are more rakyat out there with minimal income only.
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alexanderclz,

1) The second part of "hope for the best" is "plan for the worst".

2) A person could diversify their investment instead of 100% in RM.

<<it's our country after all.>>

3) How does this statement pay for your food and feed your family??

<<there are more rakyat out there with minimal income only.>>

4) How does that relevant?? They have no savings and they cannot do anything.

It is YOUR CHOICE and YOUR MONEY. You either do something to protect your savings or you will lose your purchasing power.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Oct 2 2015, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 2 2015, 11:05 PM)
Unker,

By shifting your "time frame" (ie "from now until end of year" to "from beginning of the year to year end"), you have made the comparison more to your advantage. Glad that you indirectly acknowledge time frame is important to make a comparison (and also prediction) and gives different outcome.

From here, the question will be : why you only compare from beginning of the year ? Why not extend further to year 2008 to now ? Or even from year 2000 to now ?

So, it is obvious that by setting different "time frame", the comparison of deposit rates and forex between USD vs RM will have very different results

That's why I say "time frame" is very important in prediction (and also comparison like yours above).
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Showtime747,

The past is gone. So, let's see whether ASx holders are making a wise decision by staying in ASx between NOW and end of the year.

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dreamer101
post Oct 2 2015, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 2 2015, 11:43 PM)
Not necessary leh, boss.

Job market no good --> economy no good --> US stock market down --> SGX down

Job market no good --> Fed won't raise rates --> USD down --> Other currency including RM up
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Showtime747,

It is all relative.

USD may weaken. But, if RM weaken even more, RM may go down further against USD.

Please note that Malaysia economy and RM is highly dependent on Oil price. So, if US economy goes down, oil demand may go down further and put more downward pressure on oil price.

In any case, if a person invest the WHOLE WORLD, it would not matter.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Oct 3 2015, 01:18 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 12:37 AM)
i can see you use the word "if" in all you sentences (except the first)  tongue.gif  Yes, the outlook is so uncertain in this volatile market. Anything could happen.

Your strategy is safe. Good for risk averse investor. The returns will be correspondingly low though. For stock market YTD, it would likely be negative even if you invest in the whole world

In this volatile market I see opportunities. I prefer to identify them and take higher risk. And the rewards is high too.

We are now living and experiencing history in the making. When we look back in 5 years time, what we see today are significant events which happen only once in 20 years. I would rather seize the opportunities during these few months than play it safe.
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Showtime747,

<< Your strategy is safe. Good for risk averse investor. The returns will be correspondingly low though. For stock market YTD, it would likely be negative even if you invest in the whole world>>

I am in a 64/36 allocation. So, my YTD return is around -2.3% to -3%. See below..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VWENX

<<In this volatile market I see opportunities. I prefer to identify them and take higher risk. And the rewards is high too. >>

I would assume that you do not allocate a large percentage of your asset to this effort?? Perhaps 5%??

Dreamer

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VWELX+Profile

P.S.: Wellington fund is the OLDEST mutual fund in the world. It was founded in 1929: 86 years ago. Right before the great depression.

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 3 2015, 01:22 AM

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