USD/MYR drop, V2
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 Oct 3 2015, 08:08 PM
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#81
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003 
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http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...oint/?style=biz
<< No major sell-off There were reports of a major sell-off taking place on Wednesday, as RM11bil worth of Government papers came up for renewal. But it did not happen.>> Folks, As per my understanding, that 11 billions MGS were taken up by local funds. Not the foreigner. Does anyone has information on that?? Thanks. Dreamer |
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Oct 3 2015, 08:13 PM
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#82
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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Folks,
Do not put all your eggs into one basket. This is a very basic personal finance concept. It does not require anything much more than common sense. 1) Now, if somebody does not understand this and want to argue against this, why should I bother waste my time with the person?? 2) Ditto for people that are DUMB enough to agree with this kind of person. I cannot save EVERYONE from their stupidity. I had saved some people that actually choose to do some thinking for themselves. So, I had did my community service. Stupid is as stupid does - Forrest Gump Dreamer |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:44 PM
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#83
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 08:54 PM) Unker, Showtime747,On Wednesday, RM unusually appreciated to 4.39xx. It could be some inflow of funds for this take up. Maybe there are still some foreign funds subscribing to the MGS at such attractive yield of ~4.5%. Other possible reasons are illustrated in the article. No mention of local funds like EPF/PNB  On Wednesday aka 09/30, USA government was on the threat of being shut down due to budget fight. So, USD went down against all currencies. It is probably unrelated to MGS. Dreamer |
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Oct 4 2015, 10:58 PM
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#84
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 10:48 PM) A sincere advice, never try to "time the market" when investing or for the purpose of diversification or whatever. cherroy, Often, market could "time" you back. +100 Invest the WHOLE WORLD via ETF. Spread your eggs across many baskets. Then, a person do not need to know and worry which basket may not survive. A person would need a few thousands in USD in order to do this. However, standard personal finance advice is that a person need to have 3 to 6 months of expense as emergency fund before investing. Assuming household income = 2K per month (low estimate). 3 to 6 months = 6K to 12K in RM. So, a person would need to have 6K to 12K in RM before investing. Assuming USD 2K minimum, that would mean around RM 9K to 10K. Essentially, a person could have world wide diversification when they have approximately 15K to 22K in RM. Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 4 2015, 10:59 PM |
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Oct 5 2015, 09:17 AM
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#85
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 5 2015, 08:59 AM) World's top trader says US% set to weaken wil-i-am,http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...aken/?style=biz Get ready for appreciation... The article said that USD is going to weaken against Yen and Euro. So, this may or may not help RM. Dreamer |
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Oct 5 2015, 09:19 AM
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#86
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 5 2015, 08:43 AM) HI AV,... tq,... having aenues for surprises is a healthy move for invenstments,... no doubt. I believed my tool for 'being ready for suprises' has already been covered by my long term plan for the SGD vs the MYR. So, even if I am wrong in that the Feds must need to hike rates, the chance for the SGD to appreciate against the MYR is still higher when given enough chance and time. Hansel,At this time, my conviction that the Feds really have no choice but to hike rates would be shared by many, if not all those reputable quarters out there. So,... I'll still buy on the dips when between the USD and the MYR. And my view is still the USD will strengthen against all currencies, including the sGD for me to accumulate more SGD this month. We'll know by the coming few days,.... as the MAS MPS Meeting approaches. My gut feeling is Feds is going to raise rate. But, I really do not have a clear view as to when. Dreamer |
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Oct 5 2015, 09:23 AM
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#87
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/30/investing/...unch/index.html
<< Saudi Arabia's mountain of oil money is shrinking. After years of raking in cash from lofty prices, oil-producing countries are getting squeezed by the crash in crude oil prices. Even mighty Saudi Arabia. The cash crunch caused the OPEC leader to sell bonds over the summer to raise at least $4 billion. It was the first time Saudi Arabia tapped the bond markets in eight years. >> Folks, Interesting read. Even Saudi is having a cash crunch. Enjoy the show!! Dreamer |
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Oct 7 2015, 09:14 PM
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#88
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 7 2015, 09:09 PM) opps... i think i got it wrong... AVFAN,i think it means the "reserves" are actually in rm. so when the rate goes unfavorable, the rm becomes less in usd. but this is strange... if i buy 1kusd at 3.5, my reserves is 1kusd and when rate goes to 4., i still hv 1kusd and gets bloated to 4k rm, right? we are missing something here... "fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes?  <<"fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes?>> Come on.. Just count the FX reserve in USD and you will not be confused. People are playing game with the number aka quoting in RM to confuse people. It is VERY SIMPLE The FX reserve is down USD $2 billions. Dreamer |
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Oct 7 2015, 09:16 PM
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#89
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...pp/2172728.html
Folks, My gut feeling tell me that USD will stay weak while awaiting TPPA to be approved by Asian countries. So, let's see whether this comes true... Enjoy the show!! Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 7 2015, 09:56 PM |
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Oct 8 2015, 01:03 AM
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#90
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 7 2015, 11:39 PM) Is the following rumour sounds legit ? Showtime747,Insiders with information rushing to convert their forex back to RM knowing the above news would be explosive ?    Let's ASSUME all of the above is true. How will that solve any of the Malaysia fundamental economic problem?? It will not. It will still be MAFIC. In fact, it will make sure that no economy reform will happen since BN will still be in power. <<Insiders with information rushing to convert their forex back to RM knowing the above news would be explosive ?>> Really?? RM strengthening will give people opportunity to move more money out. Dreamer |
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Oct 8 2015, 04:16 AM
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#91
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 8 2015, 01:54 AM) u hv said this a million times. AVFAN,u r becoming exceedingly annoying.  1) And, somehow, people still do not get IT. 2) Being annoyed is better than not survive. Dreamer |
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Oct 8 2015, 04:24 AM
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#92
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(MGM @ Oct 8 2015, 02:45 AM) If this factor is taken off, MYR should be at par with Thai Baht ie MYR/Baht=10 or USD/MYR=3.60. MGM, Also hope that a unity govt will take over and all citizens will work to strengthen the economy. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...oint/?style=biz Tens of billions of USD going to convert back to MYR? You need to learn to read between the lines. Aka, what they did not tell you. A) The 11 billions MGS was over-subscribed. Okay, by whom?? Local or foreigner?? They did not say. If it is by local buyer, that means foreigner is not buying. B) Yes, the FX reserve was up by 9/15, But, it went down by 9/30 again. So, why they do not use the latest number? Dreamer |
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Oct 10 2015, 10:27 PM
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#93
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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Folks,
In regards to USD/MYR, some powerful people want TPPA to pass. Hence, it will force USD to drop against all those commodity export countries while TPPA being tabled and passed by those countries. The question that you need to ask in term of Malaysia is after TPPA is passed, what will happen to USD/MYR?? 50+% of KLSE is owned by GLC and GLIC. TPPA is a free trade agreement. So, some of the GLCs will lose protection to some degree. Meanwhile, US companies will gain at some degree. So, net-net, USD will gain against MYR after TPPA is passed. In summary, this is a good opportunity for people to get out of this basket before TPPA is passed. Dreamer |
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Oct 10 2015, 10:52 PM
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#94
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 10 2015, 10:32 PM) so what your TP on USD/MYR now? nexona88, I do not do TP. I believe this time period (before TPPA is signed) is a good opportunity for people to diversify their money out of RM if they have not done so. After TPPA, USD/MYR is probably going to get a lot worse. Dreamer |
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Oct 10 2015, 11:52 PM
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#95
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 10 2015, 11:16 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Don't get me started on US drug companies.You need a MAJOR ATTITUDE adjustment. You should ask yourself instead how to take advantage of what about to happen. Spend more time figuring out how to protect your 100K instead of complaining about TPPA. TPPA will pass one way or another. Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 11 2015, 12:09 AM |
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Oct 11 2015, 04:15 AM
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#96
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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Folks,
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1M Look at exchange rate chart. MYR start to recover after TPPA reached agreement at 10/5... http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/business...ached.html?_r=0 It might be a co-incidence.. But, I do not think so. So, take advantage of this while TPPA is in the process of being pass by THE GOVERNMENT. Dreamer |
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Oct 11 2015, 09:16 AM
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#97
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 11 2015, 08:29 AM) Unker, the TPPA/RM thing is your own conspiracy theory or there are some good articles you read about ? Showtime747,Why only RM appreciate so much while the other 10 TPPA currencies do not enjoy the "benefits" ? And Indonesia is not part of the TPPA but also enjoyed the "benefits" ? << while the other 10 TPPA currencies do not enjoy the "benefits" ?>> Are you sure?? http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=AUD&view=1M http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NZD&view=1M Yes, it is my own theory.. We will know for sure soon enough. Let's see what happened to those currencies after TPPA is signed... We will know in a few months.. Dreamer |
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Oct 11 2015, 10:41 AM
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#98
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 11 2015, 10:06 AM) RM appreciate the most. Indonesia second. Indonesian is not a part of the pact. From USD point of view, it is more towards the interpretation of the minutes of FOMC meeting being made public than TPPA. Showtime747,Just wonder why do you think USA depreciation is a "benefit" to other countries in TPPA ? In what way does the depreciation help the other countries ?  TPPA takes time to sign. Before that, oil price, 2016 budget, political development and economic numbers in malaysia, china+USA news and annoucement (especially from FED) will affect the direction of RM ahead of the signing This is a limited time frame event. If my guess / speculation is correct, we will see a change of trend after TPPA is signed. << Just wonder why do you think USA depreciation is a "benefit" to other countries in TPPA ? In what way does the depreciation help the other countries ?>> Do you believe it will be easier or harder for THE GOVERNMENT to pass TPPA if the RM keep on dropping against USD?? Ditto for New Zealand, Australia and so on.. We will know soon enough. It will only take a few months for TPPA to pass. << RM appreciate the most. Indonesia second. Indonesian is not a part of the pact. >> They do not have such a fine grain control. If they drop USD, it will affect many currencies. Not only those in TPPA. Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 11 2015, 10:43 AM |
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Oct 11 2015, 10:31 PM
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#99
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 11 2015, 08:34 PM) Please do not post any political matter in the finance section. cherroy,If political risk could cause RM movement, just stated so as "political risk" the end and no further more. Those further discussion should not be in the finance section. Ty. It is VERY SIMPLE. Politically, there will be a lot of noise over the next few weeks / months. Maybe nothing will be changed. But, the political risk to RM dropping further is very high. Dreamer |
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Oct 12 2015, 07:47 AM
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#100
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 12 2015, 06:45 AM) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...later-this-year Showtime747,A new piece of news emerge and US$ outlook will turn again. Today stock market will be down also ?  If "some hands" are involved for TPPA, then he should be keeping quiet. I am guessing / speculating that somehow USD/MYR is related to TPPA. USD / MYR will be somewhat stable and MYR will be strong before TPPA is signed. MYR will go down after TPPA is signed. It is VERY SIMPLE. We will know soon enough. TPPA will be signed in a few weeks / months. We can compare USD/MYR exchange chart before and after TPPA is signed. If I am right, the chart will show a difference. If I am wrong, there will be no difference. Please note that MYR had appreciated 5% aka significantly after 10/5 (TPPA) meeting is over. So, if I am right, the difference after TPPA is signed will be significant at the order of 5% or more too. It should be easy enough to see one way or another... Dreamer |
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