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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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dreamer101
post Sep 15 2015, 08:19 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 15 2015, 08:11 AM)
True,... but the difference here is you can move your ASX out if you wished to.
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Hansel,

Which does not help if a person only move money out of ASx after RM drop XX%.

It is like the famous saying:

closing the stable door after the horse has bolted

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 15 2015, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 15 2015, 08:21 AM)
Dreamer,...

One is not able to move ALL money out of the country that easily. There are just that many things 'tied' to this country, from your earlier eg : can you move out your EPF funds if you have not reached the required age ?
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Hansel,

I did not say ALL MONEY. I specifically say ASx. Do not add in words that are not in my post.

Dreamer




dreamer101
post Sep 15 2015, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 15 2015, 10:05 AM)
Dreamer,...

I agree that you did not have the word : ALL in your posting. BUT : you have the word 'only' there, from : 'Which does not help if a person only movemoney out of ASx after RM drop XX%.'

..which implies that we are talking about ALL other assets that belonged to us within Msia besides the ASX. Frankly, such thoughts of selling-off my props did occur to me too...
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Hansel,

<<Which does not help if a person only movemoney out of ASx after RM drop XX%.'>>

Come on. Please comprehend my statement correctly..

""closing the stable door after the horse has bolted"

That means DID NOT MOVE the money out of ASx EARLIER.

As for selling your property, that is another issue. It might be too late for you for that item too.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 15 2015, 10:11 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 15 2015, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 15 2015, 10:12 AM)
Hi Ancient,.. yeah, it looks like that then. Thoughts occurred to me whereby if I am not working anymore, and my fixed income nstrumnts are all overseas, everytime I needed money, I will have to TT back some funds for everyday usage. Then there will be other skills to pickup too if we wished to do that.

Likewise, yes,... if one is holding hard cash, and to be safe, hard cash in the safe deposit box, without sources of RM income flowing-in, he will have to take out from the safe deposit box everytime and convert if he needs money. The worrying thing then becomes what happens if the cash runs out.
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Hansel,

For people like you, you can open an account in Singapore and get an ATM or Debit card. Then, you could use that card to withdraw RM from ATM machines in Malaysia.

By the way, in general, ATM withdrawal has better exchange rate than TT. As for fee versus TT, it is highly dependent on the amount and actual ATM / Debit card that you use.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 15 2015, 10:21 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 15 2015, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 15 2015, 10:25 AM)
IT's okay, Dreamer,... I would agree that we disagree on the way to interpret that first statement. I don't think it's very impt to debate this since we are mutual in what we are trying to project here.

NO, it will NEVER BE TOO LATE to run away if the long term situation is on a downhill. This will be my thinking.
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Hansel,

You have RM8 to 10 millions. And, you have fair amount of asset outside of Malaysia. So, you can make statement (1) to (3). You need to put in this disclaimer so that people do not get confused that your statement works for them too.

But, for people that put all their eggs into ONE basket. It can be TOO LATE for them. Their RM / ASx / Properties can devalue to a level that it is too late for them. Let's take a common example of people sending their children to oversea study. If they did not exchange their RM earlier, they may not have enough RM to exchange to foreign currency for their children's education.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 15 2015, 10:38 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 16 2015, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(aeiou228 @ Sep 16 2015, 08:16 PM)
I guess so.
Wahid said the 20b come from the three owners of valuecap, if the market shore up is a failure, better reassess your investment in ASX.
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aeiou228,

Even if it is successful, it is a temporary fix. It does not address the fact that the economy is doing badly. Meanwhile, the ASx holder (non-ASB) are counting on things will do fine for a long time while they are collecting 6+% dividend every year.

This is BASICALLY a BAD BET.

A) If you win, you ONLY collect 6+% per year. Please note that even if the ASx holder collect 6+% of dividend, they can still lose purchasing power as long as RM drop even further. It is still a loss.

B) If you lose, you will lose a lot more.

We have not even thrown in the fact that most ASx holder are essentially putting all their eggs into ONE basket since 20+% of their gross income are in EPF.

We cannot save the DUMMIES.

Dreamer






dreamer101
post Sep 16 2015, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 16 2015, 09:12 PM)
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We have a lot of work to do now,... no other choice.
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Hansel,

It is VERY SIMPLE.

Why?? Just do not invest in ASx if you cannot trust PNB. Why invest on a fund with a fund manager that you do not trust??

You have a CHOICE. Be SMART.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 16 2015, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 16 2015, 09:35 PM)
Yes, of course. But again, for many here, they have to start diversifying out of the country (which they have not done so previously but I'm sure are beginning to consider that now) and this takes time. Some will not be able to persevere through the hard work and will stubbornly look back at the ASX funds till they are able to SEE VERY CLEARLY THAT THESE FUNDS ARE GOING TO KILL THEIR INVESTMENTS, that came from their hard-earned savings.

I am providing a means for them to check and balance their decisions. I do not wish to dictate anymore my theory and opinions to them.

They need to be able to see clearly and consciously tell themselves in their hearts that they are stepping into a minefield which will blow up in their face, if not in the next few months, perhaps next year, or the year after that.
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Hansel,

You are creating CONFUSION by claiming that they need to spend MORE TIME looking at ASx..

It only take BASIC COMMON SENSE to do not invest in ASx.

Do not put all your eggs into ONE basket.

If someone CHOOSE not to understand the above statement, the person cannot be saved.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 16 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 16 2015, 10:08 PM)
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It HAS NOT FAILED YET !
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Hansel,

Really?? You are on the USD/MYR thread. How much had the RM drop since the beginning of this year?? Will the 6+% dividend cover that??

It had FAILED!!

<<they are DUMMIES for investing into something that will SURELY FAIL in the long term[cool.gif.>>

Long term?? 9 months is long term?? How much will and can the RM drop further over the next 12 months?? Is that long term??

Stop spreading CONFUSION. Time is running out...

It is VERY SIMPLE.

You have RM 8 to 10 millions. You can take it EASY because you have ENOUGH even if all your Malaysian asset devalue significantly. OTHERS do not have the LUXURY.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 17 2015, 12:27 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 17 2015, 12:06 AM)
If your RM strengthen to 3.80 tomorrow, you will be able to enjoy your EPF and your natural active income in RM. You will still have these, and I would think many of you will still have your rental income and perhaps KLSE share dividends too, ALL in the stronger RM.
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Hansel,

Why is it so hard for people to understand a simple concept like DIVERSIFICATION??

Do not put all your eggs into ONE basket.

Common sense is highly uncommon.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Sep 17 2015, 01:29 AM

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QUOTE(blogomatic @ Sep 17 2015, 12:31 AM)
so, what ratio does unker dreamer suggest to diversify between local and foreign investment?
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blogomatic,

That is up to you. But, putting more money into ASx that mirror your EPF exactly is definitely a bad idea.

If Malaysia's economy goes bad, you will lose your job and businesses. All your local investment will be hit too. You will need some foreign exposure to feed you and your family

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Sep 17 2015, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 17 2015, 10:02 PM)
That's only half of the story, she also said:

She told the daily that during the 1997/1998 financial crisis, Malaysia took 18 months to recover. “Our track record has shown us that every time we have been set back, time and again, we have been able to bounce back.  It is more than once. We bounced back, and we bounced back quickly,” she was further quoted as saying. – September 17, 2015. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...K.5EHYZWwn.dpuf
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MGM,

So, do you believe that Malaysia can recover in 18 months NOW without Extra Oil Money??

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 17 2015, 10:43 PM)
It doesn't matter what I believe, I am just trying the complete the full story. What is your take on the price movement of Oil within the next couple of years?
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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 18 2015, 12:16 AM)
Congrats rclxms.gif . I unfortunatefully didn't manage to diversified, just like what dreamer said, put everything in the same basket. But luckily I can still live with 2% of my networth as my yearly expenses with negligible debts(4%). Was thinking about investing in s-reits few years ago when I started following a Sporean's blog http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/, at which time exch-rate @rm2.50.

Say if I had invested rm250k(SGD100k) in S-reit(instead of ASx) 3 years ago,  would my present value in S-reit > SGD100k (rm300k)? My present value of the ASx is roughly rm250k+21%=rm302k.

Based on the chart below, FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index SIN: XX:FSTAS8670 was about the same level 3 years ago compare to now.~700. Does the chart includes dividend?
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MGM,

Are you PREPARED if RM drop further or Malaysia economy crashes and never recover??

<<I unfortunatefully didn't manage to diversified, >>

The past is gone. Are you DIVERSIFIED enough to prepare for the worst in the FUTURE??

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 08:32 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 08:06 AM)
I am prepared even if rm drop to 5.00 against USD. Sorry but I don't believe Mysia econ will crash n not recover, on this I have more faith with DrZeti  than Dreamer.
I am not DIVERSIFIED enough if u mean investing out of Mysia. My networth within Mysia consists of oilpalm estates, ASx and EPF. I thought I am diversified enough within Mysia.  I have some shares in KLSE n some private companies and a fully paid house which I am staying in.
I also believe that oil price will rebound. Worst come to worst I just have to shelf my plan of early retirement and continue to work as I can live with my employment income without touching my networth which is appreciating ~6-8%/year although in RM terms.
I also believe that it is too late to diversified out at the current exch rate, so just have to wait out for the rebound. Or maybe I will start buying nonlocal UT.
I am treating my ASx as a high-interest savings acc waiting to channel them when the time is right. My ASx has appreciated by 46% since 2009, while USD/MYR has increase from 3.5 to 4.2, 20% increase (at 46% USD/MYR has to touch 5.11).

Would like to see your view on Oil for the next 5 years?
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MGM,

<<Sorry but I don't believe Mysia econ will crash n not recover, on this I have more faith with DrZeti than Dreamer.>>

What if she no longer in charge of BNM??

<<Would like to see your view on Oil for the next 5 years?>>

It is not going to recover over the next 5 years. Beyond the next 5 years, Oil would not matter to Malaysia anymore since Malaysia would not export enough oil to have enough Oil Money. So, without the Oil Money, how is THE GOVERNMENT to continue deficit spending and keep the economy going??

<<continue to work as I can live with my employment income?>>

If the economy crashes, you will not have a job.

<<my networth which is appreciating ~6-8%/year although in RM terms.>>

Which may or may not generate enough cash flow in RM to feed you and your family.

It is VERY SIMPLE.

Why take the RISK that you might be wrong?? Why put all your eggs into ONE basket??? You have ENOUGH. Having MORE is not that important. Making sure that you do not lose money is more important.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 08:45 AM)
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I am more into preserving my wealth.
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MGM,

Then, why are you putting all your eggs into ONE basket?? If this basket crashes, you will not be able to get any back. There is no second chance for you.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 08:59 AM)
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I think I can even stop working now, and my networth will still appreciating at 4-6% (but in depreciating RM).
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MGM,

Come on. If the economy crashes and NEVER RECOVER, you asset in Malaysia will not be appreciating. In fact, it will go down.

<<I believe I could easily get a job in Spore >>

What if Singapore economy goes down too??

Why take the RISK??

You have ENOUGH. If you are DIVERSIFIED across the world, you do not have take any of this RISK. So, WHY are YOU doing THIS??

You have NOTHING to gain but EVERYTHING to LOSE.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 09:10 AM)
Showtime n dreamer, What is your take on properties in Mysia?
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MGM,

1) I do not invest in Malaysia. I believe Malaysia is DOOM. It will crash and NEVER RECOVER. The ONLY QUESTION is whether people get their money and asset out of the country before it is too late.

2) I do not know how to invest on properties.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 19 2015, 09:43 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 10:02 AM)
Hope u are not talking down the country, so that u can buy it cheap later. tongue.gif
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MGM,

I will not invest in Malaysia until NEP is abolished. Why would I keep on sustaining THE GOVERNMENT and THE MAJORITY that forced my friends and families out of their jobs and businesses??

<<Like I said I believe our econ will be down but not out.>>

You are dreaming.. The country is getting worse every day. It will not get better. This had been going on for 40+ years.. It is too late..

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Sep 19 2015, 02:20 PM)
Dude, don't make me swear here. People say SG got work opportunity, you go say SG econ go down. Then which place econ don't go down?!
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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 19 2015, 05:36 PM)
i support you Ancient-Xing... dreamer seems more like a sour grape guy... see things with grey shades on  shakehead.gif  shakehead.gif 

when u read his comments ... he is not giving advice... the way he put it is always in a condemn manner  doh.gif  doh.gif
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Folks,

1) I would assume that you never heard of or experienced such a thing as Global Recession.

2) So, if you do not plan for a Global Recession, you must be seeing the world through a rose tinted glasses.

<<Then which place econ don't go down?!>>

3) He has ENOUGH. If he is diversified enough, he do not need to find a job in Singapore as the backup plan. Now, are you telling me that is not a GOOD ADVICE?? THINK!!

4) The correct answer should be a person should be protected regardless of which and how many economies gone down. But, DUMMY like YOU advice people to invest on ASx and put all their eggs into ONE basket. Why are you doing that??

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 19 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 09:51 PM)
Good analysis if it is correct. Looks like mostly from fx gains.  thumbup.gif

Btw isn't d 2008 crisis considered as d Global Recession.?
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MGM,

Yes, but the impact on Malaysia is buffered by DEFICIT SPENDING by THE GOVERNMENT. That was financed by Oil Money. This time even Petronas is short on cash flow and has to spend its reserve. So, do not count Oil Money to bail Malaysia out this time.

Dreamer

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