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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Sep 15 2015, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 15 2015, 10:10 AM)
Hansel,

<<Which does not help if a person only movemoney out of ASx after RM drop XX%.'>>

Come on.  Please comprehend my statement correctly..

""closing the stable door after the horse has bolted"

That means DID NOT MOVE the money out of ASx EARLIER.

As for selling your property, that is another issue.  It might be too late for you for that item too.

Dreamer
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IT's okay, Dreamer,... I would agree that we disagree on the way to interpret that first statement. I don't think it's very impt to debate this since we are mutual in what we are trying to project here.

NO, it will NEVER BE TOO LATE to run away if the long term situation is on a downhill. This will be my thinking. There is also the saying : high can be higher, and not only that a high needs to be corrected or a permanent rebound happens after.

Now we drill down to the instrumnts :-

1) The local currency, MYR :-

Similar to my above : It will NEVER BE TOO LATE to run away if the long term situation is on a downhill. There is also the saying : high can be higher, and not only that a high needs to be corrected or a permanent rebound happens after. I would rather take a chance with something else than to stick with something that has a very high chance of dying.

2) ASX :-

It will not be too late IF they have not imposed redemption limits of any form. It will not be too late too before we approached December 28th, 2015 for all Fixed Price FUnds besides the ASB. It will not be too late too if they have not changed to any rules that will hold our units.

3) Properties :-

I am aware that it's not the right time to sell-off the properties now. BUt I have not put in any thought process into that area yet,... hence can't comment on that yet. Anyway, there are no by-laws that enable the Land Office to confiscate our properties so easily.
Hansel
post Sep 15 2015, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 15 2015, 10:18 AM)
Hansel,

For people like you, you can open an account in Singapore and get an ATM or Debit card.  Then, you could use that card to withdraw RM from ATM machines in Malaysia.

By the way, in general, ATM withdrawal has better exchange rate than TT.  As for fee versus TT, it is highly dependent on the amount and actual ATM / Debit card that you use.

Dreamer
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Tq,.. yes, I have known this a long timeback when I first researched on how to take money back, in different amounts, from different countries which relates to different denominations/currencies, and with different techniques of repatriating back.

That's why I wrote to Ancient that if we are to explore brinigng funds back to Msia for our daily usage, there is a whole new strategy to study there, in order to maximise the net MYR amount that will drop into our bank account after conversion, minimise fees (even ATMs charge fees if we are to withdraw USD or CAD from our accounts overseas) and maximise convenience (ie we can lay our hands on the money everytime we want without requiring to log-on and do a TT).

We can touch-on specific countries if our discussion so requires,... if it can help our forummers. For a resume,... I have onsite bank accounts in many countries and interests in many countries.

Edited to add the final para.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 15 2015, 10:43 AM
Hansel
post Sep 15 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 15 2015, 10:37 AM)
Hansel,

But, for people that put all their eggs into ONE basket.  It can be TOO LATE for them.  Their RM / ASx / Properties can devalue to a level that it is too late for them.  Let's take a common example of people sending their children to oversea study.  If they did not exchange their RM earlier, they may not have enough RM to exchange to foreign currency for their children's education.

Dreamer
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Yes, it will be a bit hard at this moment for those who have children studying overseas if they have not 'hedged their position with foreign currencies in-hand'. If they had, they would have been able to pay for the fees now using their foreign currencies instead of using a whole lot more of RM compared to the past. But let's not look back,... these people will have to bite the bullet and do what's best at this moment.

For the rest, it's better that they start thinking about diversifying overseas now. Don't wait anymore.
Hansel
post Sep 15 2015, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(3antz @ Sep 15 2015, 11:28 AM)
Hi Hansel, that is a very interesting insight. I hope you do not mind me asking what's the best way to hedge against a foreign currency eg.USD? If I would like to go down this path, should I be looking at opening a dual currency account, saving $ into an offshore bank eg. Singapore or buy some UT in FSM SG (not MY)?
I'm not very knowledgeable in these areas and would like to understand from you. Thanks in advance.
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For me, I would buy-in straight since I am of the opinion that I am in for the long term.

I would go down to Singapore and open a foreign currencu account in Singapore.

I would then return to Msia and TT the funds to my USD foreign currency account in Singapore.

When the funds are in, I may buy some USD-denominated funds in Singapore via Philips Capital. I use Philips Capital.
Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Brandon323 @ Sep 16 2015, 10:03 AM)
If you have so many bank accounts in so many countries, wouldn't it be troublesome for your heir to retrieve these money when you are gone? rclxub.gif Have you thought about that? hmm.gif
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Yes, perhaps it would be difficult. I am teaching my heirs now on how to access my account if anything should happen to me.
Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 16 2015, 01:41 PM)
When u TT the funds to your USD foreign currency account in Singapore, is there any limit/restriction imposed? How much is incurred for currency conversion n fees?
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Depend on the amt you are TT'ing out. For Maybank :-

1) If equal to or less than RM10K, can use the online method. Charge is RM15 per transaction.

2) If greater than RM10K, need to go to the branch to perform the TT. Charge is RM25 pre transaction. Need to fill-in forms and to abide by certain rules.

Transactions and charges are different for CIMB and RHB. Maybank is used in my eg above because Maybank is more commonly used by my friends. I use all three banks, I compare the rates and charges and select the best bank.
Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 16 2015, 08:56 PM)
ASNB will use the 12 ASx within the family members to buy n sell so tat Report Card looks gud during exam
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Precisely. A fund name will appear in the disclosures when it has been used to buy or sell a counter.

To know more, one has to follow closely the ann'ts by PNB, and then drill down into the report to check if it is an acquisition or a disposal of shares done by a fund, and most importantly : at what price was the acquisition made, and at what price was the disposal done, if any was done.

If the share price falls below an earlier acquisition price, then we know that the ctr held by a particular fund has experienced a capital loss against an earlier Buy Price of the ctr. If we keep seeing capital loss being experienced by a fund that we are holding, then we have to start being alert !!!

Of course, the reverse is also true for the same fund that we are holding.

We have a lot of work to do now,... no other choice.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 16 2015, 09:13 PM
Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 16 2015, 09:26 PM)
Hansel,

It is VERY SIMPLE.

Why??  Just do not invest in ASx if you cannot trust PNB.  Why invest on a fund with a fund manager that you do not trust??

You have a CHOICE.  Be SMART.

Dreamer
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Yes, of course. But again, for many here, they have to start diversifying out of the country (which they have not done so previously but I'm sure are beginning to consider that now) and this takes time. Some will not be able to persevere through the hard work and will stubbornly look back at the ASX funds till they are able to SEE VERY CLEARLY THAT THESE FUNDS ARE GOING TO KILL THEIR INVESTMENTS, that came from their hard-earned savings.

I am providing a means for them to check and balance their decisions. I do not wish to dictate anymore my theory and opinions to them.

They need to be able to see clearly and consciously tell themselves in their hearts that they are stepping into a minefield which will blow up in their face, if not in the next few months, perhaps next year, or the year after that.


Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 10:08 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 16 2015, 09:57 PM)
Hansel,

You are creating CONFUSION by claiming that they need to spend MORE TIME looking at ASx.. 

It only take BASIC COMMON SENSE to do not invest in ASx.

Do not put all your eggs into ONE basket.

If someone CHOOSE not to understand the above statement, the person cannot be saved.

Dreamer
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Like I said earlier, I do not wish to impose an opinion on them that they are DUMMIES for investing into something that will SURELY FAIL in the long term.

It HAS NOT FAILED YET !

A person can be saved if we can convince them to take the necessary steps, and then they can do so (hopefully) and finally, be able to 'create the insight' necessary in them to propel them forward towards the right actions... On the other hand, if they still would not do the steps that we have charted out for them, then,.. too bad !
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(blogomatic @ Sep 16 2015, 11:48 PM)
he will say 'don't worry. be happy'. cus ringgit wun strengthen in the next 10 years. lol
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No, he will say : even with the slightest chance that the RM would experience something near to a miracle and it DOES bounce back significantly in the next ten years, you will still have your EPF savings, and your natural active income in RM with you.

BUT : if the RM dos not rebound strongly in the next ten years, you would thank him for alerting you to diversify.

With the above strategy : You would have covered both ends of the eventualities.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(blogomatic @ Sep 16 2015, 11:42 PM)
the key is to DIVERSIFY. if you put all your eggs into foreign investments, imagine if ringgit strengthens to 3.8. a lot of people will lose money.

do not put all your eggs into 1 basket. if you cannot understand that, you can't be saved.
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If your RM strengthen to 3.80 tomorrow, you will be able to enjoy your EPF and your natural active income in RM. You will still have these, and I would think many of you will still have your rental income and perhaps KLSE share dividends too, ALL in the stronger RM.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(kEITh_22b @ Sep 16 2015, 11:51 PM)
Was just thinking of going to the money changer earlier today to exchange some of my SGD to MYR, but decided to procrastinate till tomorrow... I was already having the feeling earlier today that the MYR will start to strengthen from today...

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Why convert back ? Do you need the money urgently ? Don't you have other active and passive sources of income currently ?
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:31 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 17 2015, 12:27 AM)
Hansel,

Why is it so hard for people  to understand a simple concept like DIVERSIFICATION??

Do not put all your eggs into ONE basket.

Common sense is highly uncommon.

Dreamer
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I too don't know why,... that's why we are here to keep reminding them. A form of national service for people. and generating good karma for us ! smile.gif
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 17 2015, 12:29 AM)

'Crude oil skyrocket more than 5.5% ..  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IDdtPUlJtc0'

Dead cat bounce?  hmm.gif
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My theory : The Feds will not be hiking int rate this week. Hence the USD will be weakening a little bit. The USD is always in an inverse relationship with the price of Crude Oil. Hence, the price of Crude Oil is beginning to strengthen this week. But the momentum will not be there and it will reverse soon.

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 17 2015, 12:48 AM)
good draw on us stockpiles, expectations of fed rate hike tmrw lowered, weaker $, now only 25% priced in futures market.
on the other hand, if a hike comes tmrw, many will be caught off guard, stocks and crude and rm will fall.

take yr pick! laugh.gif
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Market is forward-looking. Look at ALL the mkt numerics converging onto a focussed outcome :

1) US Inflation number not up to expectations. We all know that the inflation number is one of the two MOST IMPORTANT gauges that the Feds looks at to determine the timing of an interest rate hike.
2) Worldwide Mkts flying high today.
3) Crude Price rising for now.
4) and finally, just found out from you that the Futures Mkt has priced in a 25% chance of a rate hike.

ALL the above are wrong if the Feds HIKE this week. I really don't think the Feds will surprise the mkt in this manner for their first hike. I really DON'T THINK so !!!
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:08 AM

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QUOTE(kEITh_22b @ Sep 17 2015, 12:49 AM)
No, it is some of my old angpow collections from SG lying around the house (good enough for daily living expenses lah...) wink.gif

Currently looking to generate passive income/investments type (prefer not to be committed/locked-up to 9-6 office daily routine)...

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If I am reading your posting correctly, you want to convert back the SGD into RM in order to purchase local passive income instrumnts, right ? How much of the SGD are we talking about here ?

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:37 AM

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QUOTE(kEITh_22b @ Sep 17 2015, 01:25 AM)
I haven't brought any SGDs (say with MYR) in the past before (these are just angpows of few hundred SGD that's all).

I would use part of my native savings/assets to do the investment(s)...

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If you have a strong conviction of wanting to start diversifying your investment to another country, you can always start NOW. The amount of SGD that you have in-hand may not be sufficient to purchase stocks, but with a few hundred SGD in-hand, you can use this amount as your maiden sum to be put into a bank account in Sgp.

You won't earn any interest from there, and you can't move your money out, but at least you would have established a bank account in Singapore with this amount. Following that, you can start to top-up your Singapore bank account gradually by converting your 'other' RM into the SGD and depositing it into your Singapore bank account.

I know,... the amount does not seem justifiable for all this exercise, but having a bank account in Singapore will open up a whole lot of other opportunities for you later on in life. You will definitely not regret it. Never wrong with the SGD !

Read the other postings in this thread about 'not putting all your eggs into one basket', here meaning into one country: Malaysia.

Start somewhere in this overseas investment adventure,.. it is never too early to start.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 17 2015, 01:46 AM)

I am actually looking for something like 6-7%/pa without the need to keep monitoring. Just dump the money and collect the interest/dividend.

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Bro,... rclxms.gif congratulations on your investment insights !

You are approaching nearer and nearer to what I have been able to achieve ! You need a bit of timing to achieve the above with SG REITs, ie buy when the price is really low. I did it with the 2008/9 down cycle. My margin-of-safety is quite large.

Now, the good news : that opportunity may again be coming when the Feds start hiking. I am positioning my bullets now !! If you guys are interested, prepare your warchest, and when I buy, I will devise a way to inform you guys. Then you decide if you would like to follow or not.

I have nothing personal to gain here, except for accumulating good karma for trying to help people.

Refer closely to the thread on SG REITs. I will post there off and on on my tactics.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(supersound @ Sep 17 2015, 01:02 PM)
On yesterday's racial rally, rm increase?
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Did RM strengthen today ??? I saw the exchange rate from RM into the SGD is at the highest point on record now.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 02:07 PM

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Tq for the replies, gentlemen,...

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