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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Nov 26 2015, 08:22 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 26 2015, 08:13 PM)
if you mean msia rates and not us rates... yes, of course.

question is if you think there is a higher chance for rate hike or rate cut in next year or so.

or no change year after year.
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I opine that even if BNM int rates go up, the MYR will not strengthen that much. The price of oil and other factors will still prevail over the MYR.
Hansel
post Nov 29 2015, 12:16 PM

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Managed to convert a batch of MYR into the SGD last Friday at 1 SGD = 3 RM. More ammo accumulated for the SGD warchest and ready to take advantage of further plunge in the STI.
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 12:18 PM

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Diversify your currency holdings. Don't convert all your MYR into the USD/SGD. That's the only way to play this game.
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 29 2015, 05:12 PM)
I waiting for your indicator  smile.gif  flex.gif
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smile.gif
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 12:30 PM

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As we speak, the SGDMYR Interbank Rate is higher today compared to last Friday's. Is the SGDMYR climbing ?

I will be watching closely. ... At the current moment, everytime the SGDMYR allows me to purchase 1 SGD with 3 Ringgit,... I will commit myself to it. I will continue to build my warchest in Sgp. However, I will not convert ALL my MYR funds into the SGD. I will let my MYR for investments stay back in Msia in the form of property and ASX- holdings.
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 12:31 PM

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The RMB is targetted to be included into the IMF's Elite Currency Basket today. This good news will lift the RMB for awhile,... The MYR may follow suit. Just a prediction.
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 02:35 PM

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If Fed Mtg is beginning on Dec 16,.. we should only be concerned by Dec 19th early morning, at 2am,... when the Fed Chair gives the press conf.. No need to have any concerns on the day the mtg starts.

Fed mtg is for two days.

Edited : sorry,.. we should be alert on the morning of Dec 18th.,... not Dec 19th.,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 30 2015, 02:37 PM
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 30 2015, 02:53 PM)
meanwhile watch oil price...

crude 41.70, brent 44.70 and falling.

if opec meeting announces they will do nothing which is likely since the idea was to kill shale, it will go below last low of 38.
you mean here, morning dec 17th, thu.

yellen usually speaks right after the 2 day meeting (dec 15-16) ends.
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If the two-day mtg is from Dec 15th - 16th.,, then yes, we have to be awake at 2am on Dec 17th. early morning. Are you certain it's Dec 15th till Dec 16th.,... ?
Hansel
post Nov 30 2015, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 30 2015, 03:07 PM)
been known a long time. smile.gif
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I heard that it was Dec 16 to 17,.. then Dec 17 to 18,.. didn't really pay too much attention to the exact dates. No necessity-lar to be that exact, in my opinion,... when the time approaches, we will hear abt it everywhere.... Just like now, I am hearing about it from you,... biggrin.gif

Reserve the brain-cells for the analytical part of things....
Hansel
post Dec 1 2015, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 1 2015, 09:16 AM)
Can't understand the resilience of the AUD.........strong support at 0.72
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Because RBA Overnight Policy Rate is due to be maintained today at 2.00%.
Hansel
post Dec 1 2015, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(MR_alien @ Dec 1 2015, 10:34 AM)
MYRUSD is back again...now 4.23
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Yeah, the MYR is strengthening again this morning. Can anybody confirm if the RMB has been included into the basket of Reserve Currencies by the IMF ? I would say it's a yes, judging from the MYR strength this morning.
Hansel
post Dec 1 2015, 04:26 PM

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Thanks, Wil and Nexona,.. The MYR keeps strengthening as we speak. Let's see how high will it go before it turns back. Near-term catalysts for now to strengthen the MYR :-

1) The Chinese Premier has agreed to support our economy by purchasing MGS.
2) The RMB has been included as an SDF Currency in the IMF.
Hansel
post Dec 1 2015, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 1 2015, 05:25 PM)
AUD/USD is blazing
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Could be because of this report after the RBA rate was held steady yesterday at 2.00%.

The following points were notable in the report :-

1) The economy can still expand in spite of lower investments in the mining sector.
2) Prospects for economic conditions have improved over recent years.

Media Release
Number 2015-23

Date 1 December 2015
Embargo For Immediate Release
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.

Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.

The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.

At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
Hansel
post Dec 1 2015, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 1 2015, 06:54 PM)
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has welcomed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest move in adding China's renminbi (RMB) as a reserve currency, saying it would contribute much to stability in the international monetary system.

Zeti said BNM was the first central bank globally to have received the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) status from the China authority in 2011, and has had the RMB as its reserve.

"We already have the RMB at a level that we are comfortable with. We will access it and as the market grows in size, there will be an opportunity for further investments," she added.
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Hence, as said earlier,... with the RMB being elevated in status in the world financial mkts, it will benefit the MYR too. But... let's see how long will this prevail.

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