Dreamer,

I would think he is not diversified enough AT THE MOMENT. He's written that in his posting and at the same time, and at the same time, he is considering to do this now from his postings too, which is a healthy sign.

What would happen if the ctry economy crashes and never recovers ? What is a model to see in the world ?

Good morning.

Just finished reading all posts in the last three pages. Great discussion there,.. tq.

A very good perspective of someone well-invested in local economy.

MGM,.. you mentioned you have approx. 6%-8% every year. Is the bigger portion of this 6% to 8% from ASX ? I believed you do have a substantial amount in ASX !

We are not talking about quantity here, or who has more money here.

Yes, my percentage is more than yours,.. and you can still live with a percentage half of mine. But if you are not diversified adequately, this percentage you are earning is highly at risk, and tends to erode your purchasing power soon.

High can go higher. But, if the RM rebounds, it will NOT be able to rebound too much because of the drop that it has experienced, UNLESS there is a very low peg put in-place. We can have a high chance of being right that a peg will not imposed because :-

1) The Govern't has repeatedly said they will not peg.
2) The reserves may not be sufficient to put a peg in=place.

Furthermore, if you are in into the foreign currency for the longterm, it's okay if the RM rebounds after you bought into the foreign currency with your RM. Because in the long run, the RM has a very high chance to lose out to foreign currencies too,... time and again this has been proven.

So, don't worry.

Which currency to invest in, which currency is the safest ? Look at the graphs - which currency has a high chance of appreciating against the RM and against other currencies ? Which monetary authority has always had a view that her currency should be allowed to be on a gradual appreciation basis ? The answer is obvious.

No offence taken, man,...

Frankly, I'm not that much about money too,... to me, money is just a means of survival and a necessity. I also noticed that money brings abt a lot of problems.

That's a good move, buy up everything you need and do up the house , etc,... before prices increased. Too bad we can't push the children through U first before the USD increases further.

I don't have too much land, only one piece at some faraway place that some sales person asked me to buy long ago. Eevrytime I hear that the land has increased in price. I never checked,.. don't know true or not. That piece of land is beside a new highway. I have forgotten abt it till this morning.

If you have been able to rent out your landbanks or have oil palm plantations, then you will be able to generate cashflow for your livelihood. Otherwise, if it's like mine, nobody rented it, there is no cashflow to be generated. I need to sell the land first before I am able to enjoy some returns.

ASX WILL give you cashflow. However, be aware of the risks debated upon recently,.. I think you were monitoring that ASX thread too. I have not sold all of my units yet.

The threat to our calculation here is if prices of essential goods around us increase drastically, then that 4% to 6% will reduce accordingly. A good news would be if we have a fully-paid house, then this would reduce our our livelihood cost substantially.

Bro,.. I have to agree with your opinion up there. You are right !

If your timeframe is over the last ne-year, I would say you are right for nos 1, 2, 3, and 4... off the top of my head.

I'll comment on no 5 : I hold European High Yield bond funds too - the performance has been flat because of the GReek problem recently, but as an extra note : these bonds have appreciated in price after the EU problem back in 2011/2. The dividend has dropped a bit, but I'm confident they will rebound back after a awhile. The Euro is weak compared to previously, but since our RM is weak too, the forex has not hit me that badly.

But if I'm to spend this Euro dividend in Sgp, I can see that I get a whole lot LESS SGD after converting the Euros back into the SGD. Less money to spend in Sgp.

No 6 : AUD FD : this is on the losing side for me. When I first started putting my funds in AUS back in 2005, I recalled the interest rate was like around 7.5% to 8.5%. This has since been dropping. In the last one year, it has dropped further, and I am only reaping 3.9% in my AUD FD now. Better put in Msia.

Tks AV,... I must say I have not reasoned out why the rebound will not really recover the currency much, just that I have seen everywhere that the deeper the currency falls, the safer we will be against a rebound. You have alerted me to the reason....

Well,... one way to look at it is if the Sgp econ goes down, chances are the MY con will go down too, perhaps more or perhaps equal. Changing the SGD back to the MYR will still help to cushion your livelihood expenses.

I am always betting on the chances that whatever happens in the world, Msia will be at the rear-end, unfortunately.... If times are bad in the world, Msia will be hit harder. If times are good in the world, Msia will not be able to move up in the rankings ladder too.

I wouldn't bet my Sgp livestyle on the above theory.

Different countries that one lives in, one will do different bets.

Talking abt SG, take a look at the recent election results. Take a look at the Sgp PM's vision and plans. Observe closely,... and we can put in a safer bet on what will happen to Sgp till the next elections. But if can tahan longer, even better-lar,...

No,...I would say convert into the SGD first and get a feel of it first. Then decide again from there if you wished to go into the USD and AUD too.

I suspected too that the above is happening now. Are you implying on only the job force in Msia or includes those in the overseas as well.

If the child can get scholarships, that is really a given and a blessing for the parent : the child is smart and the parent saves the education fund. But what if the child is not that smart ?

Tks AV,... I'm honoured. Till today's performance, I can say if need be, I can go back 10 years and I'd still be ahead,.. I am really far-sighted...

This gives me confidence in my decision-making process.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 20 2015, 12:33 PM

Wouldn't you think working in a salaried job is not all abt money only ? It is also abt a lifestyle, and letting the child experience what it is like out there, rather than just coming home after graduating and taking over the family investments ?

Off-and, I can say I am confident that my SG REITs investments and my strong margin-of-safety is because of the prices I bought at during the 2008/9 suborime crisis, when SG REITs really dipped.

If we confine ourselves strictly to SG REITs, then for my side, 8 years was my best.

On the other hand, if we branch out to, say, US High Yield bond funds, then probably yes, take the last 3 years before the USD started to appreciate. I converted quite some amount of my RM into the USD since then and bought into such bond funds, for which I am today enjoying the dividend returns, though at a slight dip in prices.

I guessed to gauge your performance against a timeline, it is best to see what type of asset class you are talking about and the geography too.

Looks like everybody is for the SGD,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 20 2015, 04:29 PM

Hi 3antz,... I'd like to put up an article that I read this morning :-

Odds stacking up for another monetary policy easing in October: analysts

The MAS will be more dovish.

A slew of poor economic data will likely push Singapore’s central bank to ease monetary policy in October, following an unscheduled easing move in January.

The odds have risen for another easing as dire August export numbers have dragged Singapore ever closer to a state of technical recession.

“We are increasingly convinced that the upcoming Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting in October could present some dovish bias and there could be a one-off downward shift in the SGD NEER midpoint by 1%,” said Francis Tan, Economist at UOB.

Tan does not expect the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) slope and bandwidth to be adjusted.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Hak Bin Chua said that short-term interest rates will likely rise further if the MAS shifts to a neutral bias in October.

“We think MAS will likely shift its current weak appreciation bias to a neutral (zero) bias and/or re-center the S$NEER band downwards in October, if a technical recession is confirmed for 3Q,” he said.

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When the Singapore 'Bank Negara', the Monetary Policy Authority (MAS) meets next month, they will decide on a number of parameters for the succeeding period. A UOB Economist said they will defitey lower the reference band of which their SGD is matched against for determining the SGD Exchange Rate. This generally translates into a weakening of the SGD across the board, but specifically against which currency, I am not sure because the basket of reference band currencies is never disclosed to public,...

Hence, the SGD may weaken against the MYR next month, but again, this is speculative, and with the MYR so weak, I wonder how much a weakened SGD will drop against our MYR. MIght not even drop at all...

Anyway, if you are in for the long term, it's okay to go in now. Oil price still has downside compared to upside, and with the MYR tracsking oil price so closely, chances are the RM will weaken further against the SGD. So, buy-in now while the MYR 'is still stronger' agisnt the SGD.

After you have converted and wired your RM to Sgp, think of something to do with that SGD. FD is not worth it.

Long term view of the city-state. Would you bet on it to be able to grow the SGD strength for a few tens of years more into the future ? Would you buy more of the SGD ?... The decision is up to each of us whether to make the move or not.

Singapore poised to overtake Switzerland as world’s largest commodity trading hub

It will handle 30% of agri-commodity trade by 2025. Singapore will snatch Switzerland’s commodity trading crown over the next decade, as the city-state continues to ramp up operations on back of burgeoning Asian demand for commodities. CLSA forecasts that Singapore will handle 30% of global agricultural commodity trade by 2025, up from just 20% in 2015. Singapore will also retain its spot as Asia’s largest oil trader. Singapore’s commodity trading position will be cemented by improved operating conditions such as preferential tax rates for commodity traders, infrastructure improvements and increased logistics capacity.