let's recap...!

the usd strengthening or rm weakening started about a year ago, sometime in oct 2014 when rate was about 3.30.

on 6 jan 2015, a thread emerged on the subject:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956

that day, rate had already moved to 3.56.

today, it is 4.20. peak day closing was 4.339 on 8 sep 2015.

so, from a year ago, -27%.
from jan, i.e. 9 months, -18%.

let's not worry about how right or wrong anyone has been or how clever or silly some comments were since jan but spend more time on what has been useful in protecting one's blood sweat and tears rm savings.

i recall some methods thrown out. how useful or useless have they been?

let's not bother with rm denominated methods as there is no fx involved.

my take over the last 1 year:

1. us stocks/etf's - on average, there is zero cap gain, maybe a small loss. plain fx gains, excl transaction costs.

2. sg stocks/reits - stocks probably lower but with fx gains; sg reits not much cap gain but dividends and fx gains.

3. gold - flat in usd, no dividends, fx gain less buy-sell spread.

4. dual currency/foreign currency accounts; usd or sgd cash - pure fx gains less buy-sell spread.

5. european, asian, emerging markets stocks, unit trusts, other funds - pls comment as i hv no idea.

6. what else?

the clear and present danger: all this is not going away anytime soon. it may be only the beginning of a long period of volatility and uncertainty. there is still the fed rate hike issue, china's slowing economy, commodities supercycle at bottom, oil price may fall further, continued currency wars, etc. plus our infamous local politics, of course.

i personally have done a bit of 1 and 2, quite glad i did that. wish i had done more.

for the young with zero savings or debt but plenty of energy, the world is there for you.

for the about to retire, pensioners or wheelchaired, what you have is all you got; lose it, get robbed or get devalued, no one will help you.

even bnm governor has advised us to "adjust".

it is a major and serious issue that impact all of us.

lastly, saying "other countries also affected" does not help, we all already know, no need to dwell on that.
so, pls comment and share yr experience, plans and what not!

tis thread give much info / new views.. but Please refrain from any name calling. it's really making tis thread like kopitiam standard.

others than that. good job 

Which is why never say never put in sgd or usd savings account!!

For usa and sg stocks, it is possible to still have some net cap gain if trading was done well. E.g. I did trade a couple of sg reits a couple of times in the last 2 years, worked out ok. But equities trading is not what we want to discuss here.

bTW AUD, sgd & usd INVESTMENT, which will be a better choice?
In 5 years time my kid will most likely go to one of these countries for tertiary education and spend 500k, although I ask him to aim for scholarship. Oz is very dependent on Commodities, Spore on Asean, CHina n US economies and US is one of the biggest debtor in the world. Would their currencies still be as strong as now in 5 years time, and appreciated another 35% against MYR.

The above post suggested OZ and Spore will be in trouble too, so left with US only?

BTW OT, is it wise to entice a child to study hard to get a scholarship so that 500k will go into his pocket?  

enough la...

pls do not hijack and derail this rm thread.

pls start a new doomsday fiat thread if u wish.

Showtime747,

The richest countries in South East Asia during the 1960s were Burma / Myanmar and Philippine.  Hong Kong Chinese were so poor that many of them went to Philippine and worked as maid for Rich Chinese in Philippine.

So, where are them NOW?? Did they ever recover??

<<Zeti said not more than 18 months based on our past experience>>

Without Extra Oil Money, there will be no recovery this time.  There are no past experiences to go by since Malaysia was bailed out by Extra Oil Money past few times.

Dreamer

Showtime747,

<<Nothing, good or bad, will last forever.>>

1) It only need to last long enough to make a person bankrupt.  A person does not have UNLIMITED amount of money to survive that long.

2) A person does not live forever.

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VT+Profile

3) Why ONLY invest in ONE country?? Why put all your eggs into ONE basket??

The above ETF invest on the largest 7,500 public listed companies across 47 countries.  A person only need a few thousands USD to start.

Dreamer

Showtime747,

My only NEGATIVE is about Malaysia and NOTHING else.  And, if a person look at how far had Malaysia gone down over this past 40+ years and still think it can recover, the person is not REALISTIC.

Dreamer

Showtime747,

<< Does the graph occurs to you that "how far had Malaysia GONE DOWN over this past 40+ years...." ? Isn't that negative if you think so ? >>

I am ONLY NEGATIVE about Malaysia.  Not about the rest of the world.  If you believe that Malaysia can and will recover without the help of oil money, I wish you best of luck.

I had divested from Malaysia.  I am prepared.

Dreamer

Showtime747,

Why argue and debate?? We will know soon enough.  Malaysia had ran out of Oil Money.  We will know soon enough whether Malaysia can recover without Oil Money.

My goal was to save as many people from this sinking ship. 

A) If people do not see this by now, they had done nothing to prepare for this.  It is TOO LATE...  So, why argue??

B) If people had seen this, they would had done something.  I do not need to tell them.

In summary, I wish people best of luck.

Dreamer

while many "know" it, i think only a minority understand all the reasons and its coming impact.
most simply brush it off a temp, will return to 3.30 or has no impact on them.
partly becos they our ministers tell them that, and they believe.
can't help if that is the ingrained thought process.
in the absence of new major development, it will most likely hang around 4.20-4.30.
gdp or gdp per capita looks fine but once u look at debt/gdp or debt/capita, it doesn't look good - been using enormous debt to buy gdp.
we are not in recession and hope it doesn't.
if it falls into recession, it will be harder this time to bounce back - rising consumer prices, huge debt overhang, little room to move.
it will take massive cuts in big ticket items of the budget and we know bijan & co. will not do that.
i am of the view the economy and rm will get worse before they get better. not all doom and gloom but quick recovery will be elusive.

Showtime747,

<<Would you be able to set a timeframe ?>>

It is your money and your life.  You have to make the RIGHT BET before it is too late.  You have to live with your decision.  I had placed my bet.  You have to decide on your own.

I wish you best of luck. 

Dreamer

icemanfx,

It will not.  Malaysia had reached peak oil production a few years ago.  So, even if the oil price did not go down, Malaysia will have less oil money.

Dreamer

Nope. From what I have been following, he has migrated to the US. I could be wrong.

No, I think he meant to say that Petrnas' oilwells are drying-up, and our E&P activities are not able to unearth more productive wells.

For me, this is highly classified. All news out there are just speculative. Even if no E&P agent is able to discover any oil now, they might dig 100m away from that analysed node and discover oil deep down there.

I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.

diversify, spread yr risk u must!

do more... 20/80, 50/50 or 80/20?

I never counted to such details of ratio diversification. If I ever take the trouble to count, I'll have a headache. I just go by instincts only, when I see 'new' money in my accts, I will put here, or put there, or buy this or buy that. But of course, DD has been done earlier.

If nothing can be bought, then I just leave the money in the acct..

Mine was like myr 20:80 sgd including cpf in sinkapoh. Isn't good?