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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Nov 21 2015, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 21 2015, 06:02 PM)
What is the direction of USD/MYR next week?  hmm.gif
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Even oil price down to below or around 40, RM appreciated. Who can make reliable prediction now ? tongue.gif
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post Nov 21 2015, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 21 2015, 08:52 PM)
Time to predict next week movement  icon_idea.gif
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Just for fun.....4.1500 tongue.gif
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post Nov 22 2015, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 22 2015, 12:45 PM)
anyone know the actual reason what trigger MYR to get stronger?  hmm.gif
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Nobody knows for certain. If market follows a set of rules, then economists will be the richest person on earth tongue.gif
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post Nov 22 2015, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 22 2015, 01:11 PM)


usd's peak against these 4 was mostly in aug-sep.

since their lowest values
, they have all recovered:

brazil +11.8%
turkey +7.3%
indon +7%
mexico +4.5%
s korea +4.2%
malaysia +4.0%
south africa +2.2%

better than south africa... isn't that exciting? tongue.gif
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But should we look at the whole period when USD was still 3.1x in June 2014 ? I think RM is still 1 of the worst in the world, and the worst in Asia
Showtime747
post Nov 22 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 22 2015, 09:00 PM)

RM... definitely worst in asia. "there is nothing positive". no rate hike, no massive exports incr, low cpo, no incr in fdi, same or incr spending in budget. and oil price stays very low after 1.5 yrs. will petronas report a loss in next qtr?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-compani...t-defaults.html

if a currency can strengthen significantly w/o doing anything in such a scenario, we should stop going to school to learn economics, finance, maths and science. sweat.gif
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That's what puzzled many of us. RM should have reached 4.50 with such negative economic numbers. But it defied gravity and head north instead. So "rumour", "conspiracy theory", "magic" arguments appeared when the direction is unexplainable

That's what makes trading interesting tongue.gif
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post Nov 23 2015, 07:13 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2015, 12:00 AM)
It's all relative.

Already worst in Asia, among the worst in the world. That's bad enough.

There are other economies in worse shape like Venezuela, Ukraine, Nigeria. But these are not as similar as Msia is to Turkey and South Africa.

4.5, 5.0... That will be if we slip into recession next year and the politics much uglier.

Not an entirely impossible scenario.
Another thing interesting thing is the Thai baht. What reasons for it to be even stronger than the SGD?
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Don't know. Maybe also because of magic ? Taksin's political money overseas confisticated secretly bringing back ? tongue.gif
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post Nov 23 2015, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2015, 10:53 AM)
usd strengthening again.

0.943 euro.

crude price falling again.

rm >4.30.
i want to buy a bit more usd.

it just won't stay <4.25 more than 1 day!

magic, illusion, fundamentals, welcome to help! laugh.gif
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It has dropped back to 4.29 now....

But I will wait tongue.gif
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post Nov 23 2015, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2015, 03:16 PM)
wait to buy or sell usd? biggrin.gif
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Hold on to RM first thumbup.gif
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post Nov 23 2015, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 23 2015, 08:55 PM)
Sorry,... but I don't get the point,....
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Ie. China buys government bonds of many other countries as well, not just malaysia. EG. It holds >$1 trilliion of USA government bond and is its largest creditor
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post Nov 23 2015, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 23 2015, 10:15 PM)
Tq Show,... Which Emerging Country then besides Msia ?
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Don't know exactly. Maybe these articles would help

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-12212936

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/216...lexible-friends

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/business...ached.html?_r=0
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post Nov 23 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Nov 23 2015, 10:32 PM)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...dn-t-care-less-
<< This year alone, China’s holdings have fallen about $200 billion as it raises money in support of its flagging economy and stock market. >>

nexona88,

Why do you need to imagine when it had happened??

See above...

Dreamer
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Unker,

About 1 month left to year end. Most probably RM will not fall to 4.7/4.8. What do you think ?
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post Nov 24 2015, 07:04 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Nov 24 2015, 01:27 AM)
Showtime747,

Let's say that it did not happened.  Then, we will have to wait and see what happened after TPPA signed around 1/2016.  That will be the other significant event in near term.

Dreamer
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Ok fair enough. We will see if TPPA has any significant effect. But are you sure TPPA can be wrapped up by 1/2016 ?
Showtime747
post Nov 24 2015, 06:08 PM

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Looks like the magic continues...4.15 coming ?
Showtime747
post Nov 24 2015, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 24 2015, 06:16 PM)
4.20 MYR 1st, then only 4.15 MYR  sweat.gif
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Last time it took just 1 week to fall from 4.4x to 4.1x. Anything is possible tongue.gif

4/10 4.41
10/10 4.13
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post Nov 25 2015, 09:33 AM

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Traders starting to price in "the company's" resolution as the rumour becomes clearer now. RM will be stronger unless oil price fall to 30+, 20+ range. Faster short USD ! thumbup.gif
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post Nov 25 2015, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 25 2015, 10:01 AM)
just checked.

my bank, buying usd still 4.2215.

i wait for a buy at <4.20.

hope yr rumor will keep going! biggrin.gif
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Try your luck with DCI. If lucky you can convert at spot rate + interest

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